One interesting debate that comes up every draft season is how much to weigh a prospect’s individual games verses other NBA talents compared to their overall body of work against mostly college players. It is generally a good policy to never overreact to one game too much — every player at every level has ups-and-downs, and basing an evaluation completely on one matchup is silly. At the same time, it makes sense to pay a little more attention when a prospect goes up against an NBA caliber athlete/talent because that’s what they will be facing at the next level.
While the first round of the NCAA tournament was filled with upsets, the second round weeded out the talent a bit, and every remaining game contains NBA talent on both teams. These are the top match-ups to watch in the Sweet Sixteen from an NBA Draft perspective.
Thursday
Game: 7:10 ET — No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova
Matchup: SG Sheldon McClellan (Miami) vs. SG Josh Hart (Villanova)
Miami and Villanova are both teams that rely more on a collection of talent than one individual, but having wings who can both space the floor and defend at a high level is the key to unlocking their well-rounded teams. Both Hart and McClellan are prototypical NBA 3-and-D wings, combining NBA level outside shots with the athleticism to really guard at an NBA level. Hart is a bit undersized for a 2-guard at 6-4 with a 6-7.5 wingspan, while McClellan is listed at 6-5 without a wingspan measurement but looks a little bigger than Hart to my (possibly wrong) eye. McClellan has a little more creativeness to his off the dribble game, but Hart impacts the game in other ways as he is one of the best rebounders for a guard/wing in all of college basketball. Watching the two guard each other should be a good test of how their athleticism looks when matched up against other NBA-caliber wings.
Game: 7:40 ET — No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Matchup: SF Danuel House (Texas A&M) vs. SG Buddy Hield (Oklahoma)
Texas A&M’s roster includes the smaller defensive specialist Alex Caruso who may be better suited to chasing Buddy off screens, but Hield and House should still see their fair share of possessions matched up against each other. House is a big-time athlete for a wing player who can shoot, drive, and pass, but isn’t great in any one area. Hield is more one-dimensional, but his shooting is so elite that he’s much more in demand from an NBA perspective than House. I’ll be interested to see if Hield is able to get anything going to the basket when guarded by an athlete like House and whether or not he can contain someone with House’s burst off the dribble. I’m a bit pessimistic that Hield has the athleticism to matchup with House, so even if he manages to win the matchup through guile, House might expose some of Hield’s NBA deficiencies.
Game: 9:40 ET — No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas
Matchup: PF/C Robert Carter (Maryland) vs. PF Perry Ellis (Kansas)
While players like Melo Trimble, Sviatoslav Mykhailuk, Jake Layman, Cheick Diallo, and Diamond Stone are all interesting names to watch for the NBA, none of them are likely to have many minutes matched up against other real NBA talents. The matchup that intrigues me most is between a traditional college star in someone like Ellis against someone who plays a smaller role on his NCAA team but has more obvious NBA talent in Carter. Ellis is an old-school 4 who can do everything you would want from the position, but is a bit lacking in NBA athleticism in the day and age of the small-ball power forward. Carter possesses a similarly well-rounded combination of shooting/handling/passing for a big without the same level of post-up game and opportunity to feature in his team’s offense, but he does have the type of athleticism where he could potentially play small-ball 5 at the NBA level and still protect the rim. I believe Carter is a legitimate NBA prospect while Ellis is not, and if he could outplay Ellis in this matchup that would do a lot to further my belief.
Game: 10:10 ET — No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Oregon
Matchup: SG Grayson Allen (Duke) vs. SG Tyler Dorsey (Oregon)
Watching Brandon Ingram attack Oregon’s extremely athletic front line will be very interesting, but the most obvious matchup between NBA talents comes at the guard position. Dorsey and Allen are similar in that they both are slightly undersized for two-guards but don’t quite possess the necessary skills to play point either. Dorsey has a little better handle and lateral quickness than Allen, but Allen has an advantage in shooting ability, power/explosiveness, and is a touch superior passer. Allen has sometimes struggled this year against other NBA athletes, so watching to see if Dorsey can contain him off the bounce will be telling. On the other end, if Dorsey is able to use his shake to give Allen a lot of trouble, that will also be worth noting.
Friday
Game: 7:10 ET — No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia
Matchup: PG Monte Morris (Iowa State) vs. SG Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia)
Virginia’s roster also contains a talented point guard in London Perrantes who Morris will likely guard, but seeing as Brogdon is UVA’s best defender I would expect him to get a decent amount of time guarding Morris. Neither Brogdon or Morris is a great athlete by NBA standards, but both rely on an advanced understanding of how the game works to be some of the best players in all of college basketball. Brogdon’s combination of strength, anticipation, and discipline make him a great defender, but Morris is very quick with the ball in his hands and is a great decision maker and floor reader. Whoever wins the battle when Brogdon is guarding Morris should be given a lot of credit for stopping/beating a really great player.
Game: 7:30 ET — No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Matchup: PF Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin) vs. PG Demetrius Jackson (Notre Dame)
This answer is a bit of a cop out. Centers Ethan Happ for Wisconsin and Zach Auguste for Notre Dame are both fringe NBA prospects, but the clear most notable prospect on each team is Hayes and Jackson. However, the two of them don’t match up position wise, and the only time they might go at each other is if either team decides to switch screens on the defensive end. Wisconsin lacks a true rim protector so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jackson have a field day attacking the basket, but watching Hayes try to close out and recover to Notre Dame’s shooters in their 4-out attack will be interesting. Hayes will probably be guarded by a more traditional wing (who is a fringe prospect in his own right) in V.J. Beachem, and he will need to take advantage of him in the post to counterbalance Notre Dame’s spaced out attack.
Game: 9:40 PM ET — No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse
Matchup: PF/C Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga) vs. PF/C Tyler Lydon (Syracuse)
Syracuse’s zone prevents a lot of direct individual matchups from happening, but the matchup between Lydon and Sabonis is a fascinating one. Both guys have traditional power forward size and short arms, but as the NBA continues to downsize might be forced into playing some small-ball 5. Lydon has a nice combination of outside shooting ability and bounce inside to go along with some attacking skill, but questions about who he guards in the NBA will persist. Sabonis is incredibly skilled, tough, and quick as an interior player, but doesn’t have quite the leaping ability to protect the rim or a consistent enough perimeter shot to space the floor. Watch to see both how Sabonis contains Lydon’s perimeter game and if Lydon has the physicality to hang with Sabonis down low.
Game: 10:00 PM ET — No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Matchup: EVERYBODY (almost)
This is the marquee event of the weekend from a scouting perspective, as both rosters are loaded with NBA talent across almost every position. At point guard, Marcus Paige and Yogi Ferrell are two of the better players in the college game, and both have a combination of shooting, quickness, and passing to put them on NBA radars. Paige’s bigger frame makes it easier to envision him guarding at the NBA level, but Yogi is much more consistent as a decision maker on the offensive end.
On the wings UNC has the smooth scoring game of Justin Jackson and the raw athleticism and passing vision of Theo Pinson, while Indiana has essentially a more refined Pinson in Troy Williams and the name that has skyrocketed onto the draft scene of late in uber-toolsy OG Anunoby. Watching this quartet of potential NBA wings guard each other on both ends of the floor is going to be a lot of fun. I’m someone who has always thought Williams combination of handles/vision to go along with his incredible athleticism warranted a spot in the NBA, but all eyes will be on Anunoby. If his combination of length and athleticism continues to stand out even on a court full of NBA athletes (like it did against Kentucky), it’s going to be time to start seriously considering just how good a prospect he might be.
In the frontcourt, watching Indiana’s Thomas Bryant go up against a similarly strong player in Kennedy Meeks and a far quicker/bouncier in Brice Johnson will be quite the contrast. In many ways, Bryant is a more athletic/mobile version of Meeks, but him and Johnson should both be able to take advantage of each other on either end (Bryant in the post, Johnson using his quickness in space). Also, watching Bryant guard Paige in pick-and-roll will be interesting as his ability to contain NBA level guards even while dropping back is certainly an issue. This game is going to be a lot of fun for draft nerds, and there will be so much going on at both ends that it is going to be hard to keep track of everything.