CBS and SI’s Seth Davis talks upsets, Sweet 16, and the value of luck in March Madness

Seth Davis of CBS and SI took time to dive into the NCAA Tournament about what’s happened so far and what could lie ahead in March Madness

Between the cheers, the buzzers, and the shoes squeaking as they make cuts around the hardwood, one of the most familiar sounds of March Madness and the NCAA Tournament is the voice of Seth Davis in the studio alongside the CBS crew in the studio. From before Selection Sunday until the national champion is crowned, Davis and CBS are there providing analysis and soaking everything in.

So after a crazy first weekend in the NCAA Tournament, Seth Davis and the CBS crew have seen all of it go down. Looking back on the 52 games that have been played leading up to the Sweet 16, there’s one moment that stands out to Davis as bar-none the wildest, most exciting moment, one that Northern Iowa Panthers fans will be reveling in forever.

“It has to be Paul Jesperson’s halfcourt shot. People seemed to forget about it 48 hours later when they blew that awful lead, but you’re talking about a running halfcourt shot that banks in to win an NCAA Tournament game,” Davis said. He added, “Of course, there’s been countless buzzer-beaters over the years, but that was just an incredible moment that, to me, that really sums up the tournament.”

Jesperson’s unbelievable buzzer-beater to push Northern Iowa past the Texas Longhorns to earn the upset victory was just the peak moment for all of the upsets that occurred in the First Round, though. Outside of the No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders knocking off a title-favorite in the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans, though, Davis wasn’t too shocked by any of the upsets.

“I have to say, the other ones weren’t all that surprising. I mean, Stephen F. Austin, you know, the way they dominated West Virginia was a surprise, but we all know who follow the sport that Stephen F. Austin is a really, really good team,” Davis said. “I do think that fans have become sophisticated enough to understand that just because one team has a ‘14’ next to their name and the other has a ‘3’ that the ‘3’ is so superior to the ‘14’ that if it plays poorly it can still win. Stephen F. Austin shredded them—shredded them. You know, Hawaii and California I don’t even think was all that surprising because Cal had two injuries really, one to their starting point guard who broke his hand and then another player in Jabari Bird who couldn’t get off the bench because of back spasms.”

More than the First Round upsets, though, Davis pointed to how those lower seeds fared in the Second Round as being indicative of just how rigorous the NCAA Tournament and March Madness can be.

“I think the more interesting point there is that you have all of these so-called Cinderella, mid-major teams win their first game, but none of them won the second. It illustrates just how hard it is to get to the Sweet 16 for those guys because there is a talent differential, but they won a huge game where they’ve accomplished something so wonderful and so surprising that it’s very, very hard to turn around and prepare for your next game 48 hours later. And as a result, none of them made it past the next round.”

Looking back at Northern Iowa, though, they were the one mid-major team that pulled off a First Round upset that was close to making the Sweet 16 before suffering an enormous collapse and ultimately falling in double overtime to the Texas A&M Aggies with Aggies senior guard Danuel House playing a huge part in that. Davis expressed how important experience is in March Madness, especially in that type of situation.

“I think experience is huge, being a senior is certainly huge. Here’s a guy who missed his first nine shots and didn’t even have a field goal until the last two minutes of the game. It’s pretty impressive that he—after all he’s only a 31 percent three-point shooter on the season—he steps up and hits a critical three-pointer as they’re making that comeback,” Davis said. “And it’s one of many, many things that had to go wrong for Northern Iowa in order for that collapse to happen. I wrote a column for Sports Illustrated that was published on Monday where I kind of point-by-point about all the bad luck that Northern Iowa had to experience to lose that game.”

As big of a role as experience plays, though, Davis maintains that a bit of luck is pivotal in the NCAA Tournament.

“I’m a huge believer in luck in these situations. Luck plays an enormous part in what happens or doesn’t happen. Anyone who thinks that these players and these coaches are really that much in control of what’s going on needs to watch more basketball.”

Specifically from the Northern Iowa collapse, Davis pointed to the fact that a missed shot for Texas A&M was actually a stroke of bad luck for the Panthers.

“I actually made the point where that was a situation where a missed shot by the opponent was bad luck. Because if [Alex] Caruso makes that shot, there is no rebound and [Matt] Bohannon doesn’t get hurt. And if Bohannon doesn’t get hurt, they probably don’t lose because he’s their main inbounder. So, it’s kind of funny how bad luck looks like good luck and good luck looks like bad luck sometimes.”

Moving on to look at the Sweet 16 and what lies ahead, though, Davis and Campus Insiders partnered with XYIENCE, a zero calorie, zero sugar energy beverage, this season to produce the video series “Seth Davis’ X-FACTORS.” Looking at one of the most anticipated matchups of the Sweet 16 between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Indiana Hoosiers in the East Region, Davis’ X-Factor for that matchup was one that you might not expect.

“My X-Factor for that game will be whether Thomas Bryant, the Indiana freshman center, can hold his own against North Carolina’s deep and vaunted front line and, here’s the key, without getting in foul trouble. Because he does have a tendency to get into foul trouble because he’s a freshman and he’s their only true five and he makes some freshman-like decisions at times, but he’s a very talented kid who is the back-line of the defense. So can Bryant be a factor and can he do so without getting in foul trouble? That’s my No. 1 X-Factor.”

Though Bryant may be the X-Factor in that matchup for Davis, it’s Indiana’s star point guard that has been one of his standout performers through the first two rounds of the tournament, in addition to Virginia Cavaliers star and ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon.

“One guy who jumps to mind is Yogi Ferrell for Indiana. He’s obviously had an unbelievable season and is going down in history as one of the great players in Indiana history and, of course, Indiana has a lot of history. So, he comes to mind. Malcolm Brogdon of Virginia, one of my favorite coaching moves of the first rounds was when he was guarding Butler’s leading scorer who’s a guard in Kelan Martin. And then, as a result of Brogdon shutting Martin down, they had a forward named Andrew Chrabascz who scored—I think he scored over 20 points in the first half. So in the second half Tony Bennett put Brogdon on Chrabascz in post defense and Chrasbascz disappeared. So that was a great thing.”

For the Sweet 16, Davis is interested in a couple of matchups, one of which is between the Duke Blue Devils and the Oregon Ducks where Davis is interested to see a matchup where the lower seed in the matchup has the highest caliber of players on the floor.

“It’s going to be interesting to me, Duke has two players in Brandon Ingram and Grayson Allen who, when they’re in the zone, they’re literally unguardable. So here you have a case where you have a five-seed going against a one-seed and the five seed has the two best players in the game. That doesn’t mean that they’ll be the best players that day, but they’ve got the two best players in the game. That’s what makes it fun: all bets are off.”

Though North Carolina-Indiana is a game to watch and Davis will be curious about Duke-Oregon, the CBS analyst is also intrigued by the matchup between the Villanova Wildcats and Miami Hurricanes and the symmetry between the two teams.

“I like the Miami-Villanova matchup. I mean, those are two teams who can look in the mirror, or it’s like they’re looking in a mirror. They’re both really predicated on veteran guards, but also they each have a senior center who have come a long way. They’ve always been great defensive players, but they’ve both come a long way on the offensive end. So I think that’s a fun one. Those are two very, very evenly matched, similar teams with similar styles and similar programs. So that’s going to come down to who’s making shots, who gets the right whistle, who gets the lucky bounce.”

As far as higher seeds who could fall in the Sweet 16, though, Davis mentioned that Oregon has to be considered in that regard. However, he also sees a scenario where the No. 1 overall seed in the Kansas Jayhawks could be sent packing by the Maryland Terrapins.

“Well, the one that would come to mind from a general standpoint is Oregon. I think we all sort of agreed that they were the weakest of the four 1-seeds and then when you see how the Pac-12 has played, it makes you wonder just how good are they really. So, when you talk about having to potentially go up against Duke and Oklahoma, that would come to mind. But my upset special would be Maryland over Kansas. I think Kansas is the better team, but Maryland has better players and I like the matchup and I like Maryland’s high ceiling if they can reach it and that’s one I’m willing to take a chance on.”

Davis’ reasoning as to how the Terps could pull off the upset essentially comes down to their ability to combat Perry Ellis in the frontcourt.

“It’s actually the fact that they have a variety of guys who are able to play defense on Perry Ellis without needing a double-team. So if you can guard Perry Ellis one-on-one in the post, that means you’re not in rotation the whole way and you can try to keep those guards from killing you with the drive. I think it’s a pretty good matchup for Maryland, but they have to play well. You know, Maryland is one of those teams where—the opposite of these teams is Kansas as a whole has been greater than the sum of their parts all season long and the reverse is true for Maryland. Maryland’s got good parts, but they haven’t maximized their potential too often this year.”

With that, there was really only one question left to be answered. XYIENCE is sponsoring a sweepstakes that’s sending a lucky fan to Houston for national championship weekend where they will get the opportunity to have floor-access in addition to speaking with Campus Insiders personalities. Though he expressed that everyone is guessing at this point with how the tournament has played out to this point, Seth Davis offered his picks as to which four teams that lucky fan will be watching compete in Houston at the Final Four.

“I don’t know how many times I need to get my picks wrong before people stop asking me to make predictions. I’ll give you Villanova, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Virginia.”

Seth Davis is working with XYIENCE, a zero calorie, zero sugar energy beverage available in eight different flavors. XYIENCE has sponsored Campus Insiders and Seth throughout the season with his “Seth Davis’ X-FACTORS” video series and are also sponsoring the aforementioned sweepstakes that will send a fan to Houston for national championship weekend.

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