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New York Islanders’ concerning trends could keep them out of postseason

By Dave Stevenson

in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Verizon Center on April 27, 2015 in Washington, DC.
in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Verizon Center on April 27, 2015 in Washington, DC. /
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A look at the New York Islanders concerning trends and what it means moving forward. 

The New York Islanders entered the 2015-2016 regular season after the offseason saw them sign a backup goalie (Thomas Greiss) and a depth defenseman (Marek Zidlicky). Both the front office and the coaching staff believed that their group of guys that led the team to a playoff berth in 2014-2015 were good enough to contend for a Stanley Cup this season. With a team full of youngsters and players coming off career years, the Isles believed that they had a team that could challenge the incumbent division champion New York Rangers and the vastly improved Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins.

In hindsight, they were wrong. Despite a roster that is mostly the same as last season, the Islanders have struggled and are not as dominant of a team as they were last season. The 2014-2015 season saw

Despite a roster that is mostly the same as last season, the Islanders have struggled and are not as dominant of a team as they were last season. The 2014-2015 season saw the Isles finish fourth in the league in even strength score-adjusted Corsi For percentage, which measures how many of the shot attempts on ice are for a team while adjusting for score effects. They did this by constantly pushing on offense while leading the league in score-adjusted shot attempts per 60 minutes at even strength.

As of March 23, the Isles are 16th with a 50.2 percent Corsi For percentage and their offense has fallen to tenth in score-adjusted shot attempts per 60 minutes at even strength. Their defense has been a bit of a concern this season (12th most shots on goal allowed per game), which is different from last season when they were ninth in the league in that category.

The reason behind this change is that the Islanders have been playing far more conservatively this season, which is not an ideal way for a team led by John Tavares, Frans Nielsen, and Kyle Okposo to play. Losing Lubomir Visnovsky and Johnny Boychuk’s injury hurt them as well, but that doesn’t explain all of the changes.

Should the Isles be concerned about their team right now? Absolutely. They cannot contend with the scoring depth that the Capitals, Rangers, and Penguins have. A good way to determine scoring depth is to see how many 15 goal scorers a team has. 20 is a bit too high of a number and 10 is a bit too low. Like Baby Bear’s porridge, 15 is just right. Last season the Islanders had seven: John Tavares, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Kyle Okposo, Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey, and Nikolai Kulemin (plus Frans Nielsen had 14 goals). This year? They have four: Tavares, Okposo, Nelson, and Nielsen.

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With seven guys who could score, it was hard to play against the Isles last season because at any given time, at least one of their goal scorers would be on a hot streak. That’s not the case this season, as the Isles have relied quite heavily on Tavares, Nelson, Nielsen, and Okposo for goals. To do anything in the playoffs, they’ll most likely have to go through the Rangers or Capitals. Unless Henrik Lundqvist suffers an injury, neither matchup is one that the Islanders would win.

The more concerning trend is their defense. Ironically, the Islanders have gotten better goaltending this season than last season despite their defense allowing more shots on goal this season. Last season, the Isles had the fourth-lowest even strength save percentage (91.4 percent) in the NHL. This season, it has risen to 14th (92.8 percent as of March 23). A large part of that has been Thomas Greiss, who has the fifth-best even strength save percentage (93.71 percent) of any goalie with at least 1,000 minutes played at even strength.

In order to make the playoffs and hold off a surging Philadelphia Flyers team, the Isles offense needs to get going. Ryan Strome and Anders Lee have not taken the steps forward that they were expected to. In fact, they’ve each taken a step back. Josh Bailey and Kulemin have been invisible for extended periods of time.

If the Islanders can’t get their offense going or if they stop getting outstanding goaltending, the Isles could easily miss the playoffs and changes could be coming. Considering Tavares will be a free agent after 2018, those changes could affect their future and slam shut their Stanley Cup window.

Graphs courtesy of OnlineChartTool.com. Data courtesy of NHL.com and War-On-Ice

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