NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for March 25
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
Looking forward to tonight’s slate of nine game it is critical to be diligent in following the late breaking news as value will surface throughout the day as players rest heading down the stretch. The Spurs have already announced that Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green will sit out tonight’s contest against Memphis.
Continuing with yesterday’s format, I will look to present some of my key building blocks and pivot plays at each position.
Point Guard
- Deron Williams – Going up against the Warriors tonight, the Mavericks see an uptick in projected points and also have the highest projected pace increase. One of the best places to attack the Warriors is at PG(26th DvP) and since Chandler Parson has gone out with a season ending injury, Deron has averaged 45 fantasy points per game. Even in a “down” game last time out, Deron put up 31 FanDuel points which still hits 5x value, so playing Deron tonight gives us the ability to lock in a safe floor with demonstrated upside.
As the newest member to the FanSided team, Matt Rogers points out in his debut FanDuel Economics column, Deron’s price has only increased $100 with his expanded role, so take advantage of the cost savings while his price is still this reasonable. Welcome to the team Matt (@MattyMcMatt17) – Great Stuff!
https://fansided.com/2016/03/25/fanduel-economics-nba-march-25th/
- Goran Dragic – No team sees a higher projected point increase than Miami tonight, with an expected point jump of 10 points over their season average. Prior to last game against the Spurs, Dragic had averaged 37.6 fppg over the previous 3 games. My hope is that the very reasonable dud against the Spurs will take some of the shine off Dragic and we can fire him up tonight at a reduced ownership percentage.
- Tony Parker – With the news that Leonard and Green are out tonight; one player to target across all formats is Tony Parker. I very rarely target Parker due to the uncertainty around the Spurs playing time, however if you take a look at the statistics with and without Leonard/Green on the floor some big time opportunity jumps out at us. With those players on the court, Parker sees a 22% usage rate and averages .83 fantasy points per minute. Without those two, his usage spikes to 31% and he gets 1.02 fantasy points per minute. Over the last 4 games, Parker has alternated good and bad but has put up 38 and 45 points so with the demonstrated upside at only $5,100 and the stats to back it up, lock in Parker tonight.
Shooting Guard
- Wes Matthews – Last game out, I recommended Matthews and he did not disappoint. Priced still at only $4,100, Matthews put up 35.5 points (good for 8x value) without Chandler Parsons in the lineup. When your coach publicly states that you will be leaned on heavily with Parsons out and then you go out and back it up, I’ll continue to ride this bargain price until you prove me otherwise. Having a matchup against the Warriors, the Mavericks will need Matthews to have a big night so I will lock Wes in as one of my key value plays.
Small Forward
- P.J. Tucker – The Suns and Kings game tonight projects to be full of fantasy goodness and Tucker is a great way to get cheap exposure to this game. At $4,800, Tucker has put up 32 points per game over the last two and is locked into major minutes. In a night where Kawhi is out, it makes sense to drop down and save at your second small forward position on FanDuel and Tucker gives us the ability to lock in production with tournament winning upside.
Power Forward
- LaMarcus Aldridge – Similar to my view on Tony Parker, Aldridge sees a usage boost and point per minute spike with Leonard and Green off the floor. Without those players, Aldridge sees an increase to 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Assuming he plays his average of 30 mpg, that would equate to 36.3 points. This gives us the ability to lock in a very safe floor and if the game stays close you have to expect that the offense will flow through the big guy.
- Jon Leuer – In the last two games, Leuer has posted 32 and 38 fantasy points and is priced tonight at only $4,600. With Tyson Chandler already ruled out, I expect Leuer to be very popular as a bargain option however using his cost savings and ability to crush value, he makes for a dangerous fade.
Center
- Hassan Whiteside – Over the course of the season the Magic have been a mediocre matchup to opposing centers however over the last week, without Nikola Vucevic, only the Kings have given up more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Magic. Assuming Vucevic is out again tonight and the expected point increase for Miami, I cannot see the Magic being able to stop Whiteside and his ability to rack up blocks and rebounds allows us to roster a player with one of the highest ceilings.
Next: 2016 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Preview
Best of luck tonight gamers. As always keep an eye on the late breaking news for potential rest scenarios!