2016 NHL Awards: Erik Karlsson is the Norris Trophy favorite

The only real choice for the 2016 Norris Trophy is Erik Karlsson.

Entering the 2016 season, many expected that the Norris Trophy race would see a repeat of the 2015 Norris Trophy race between Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson and Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty, except with Doughty coming out on top.

That isn’t been the case, as Karlsson has followed up his impressive 2014-2015 season with a historic 2015-2016 season. Doughty was most likely robbed of the Norris last season, but that doesn’t justify voting against Karlsson this season. Doughty has put together one of his finest seasons, especially in the defensive end of the ice, but Karlsson has had an impact that the NHL hasn’t seen from a defenseman in quite some time.

Karlsson’s Production

Erik Karlsson, as of March 25, is leading the NHL in assists with 62. If that holds (and with a seven assist lead it should), he’ll be the first defenseman to lead the league in assists since Bruins defenseman Bobby Orr in 1974-1975 when he tied with Bobby Clarke of the Philadelphia Flyers. In fact, Orr’s the only other defenseman to ever lead the league in assists, doing so five times. Let’s compare the rosters that Orr had to the current roster that Karlsson is on by using a very simple metric: how many top 20 goal scorers they had each season that they led the league in assists.

NOTE: During the 1973-1974 season, the Bruins traded for Bobby Schmaltz, who finished in the top 20 in goals that season. He is not included because he only scored seven goals with the Bruins in 27 games that season.

This graph tells us that Karlsson is having to generate his gaudy assists without the goal scoring talent that Orr had. Goals aren’t everything, though. Let’s take a look at how many their teammates finished in the top 20 in points.

In short, Karlsson is driving most of the Senators offense by himself. Mark Stone is tied for 19th in points this season with 60 as of March 25. Karlsson’s offensive production this season cannot be ignored because the Norris does not just go to the best defensive defenseman, but rather the best overall one. But is it enough for him to overcome Drew Doughty, who has the sympathy of voters after narrowly missing out on his first Norris last season? Absolutely.

Karlsson’s Offense

Offense is quite important when evaluating who the best overall defenseman is because offense is half of the game. The NHL has changed. No longer is a defenseman’s value chained to what they do in the defensive zone. In today’s NHL, defensemen are expected to contribute on offense.

Erik Karlsson blows Drew Doughty out of the water offensively. Not just in terms of points, but shot attempts as well. There are different stats that can be used. Corsi measures all shot attempts, Fenwick measures all unblocked shot attempts, and shots against measures just those that are on goal.

It’s embarrassing that the Senators are so awful that they are ruining arguably the most productive season that a defenseman has ever had. Doughty has a superior team around him and he still can’t come close to touching the offensive impact that Erik Karlsson brings to the table.

Karlsson possess the puck more at even strength than Doughty, but only by nine seconds per 20 minutes.

Karlsson’s Defense

Ah, the central thesis of those who say Karlsson shouldn’t win the Norris. His defense. The critics are wrong. A good way of determining how good a defenseman is by seeing how many even strength shot attempts they give up in comparison to the rest of their team. Why compare it to the rest of the team? Because it measures the direct impact that a player has on the game defensively.

This table tells us that though Doughty is better defensively, Karlsson is a lot closer to him than most people think. People like to claim that Erik Karlsson doesn’t kill penalties. Would you use a Ferrari to haul stuff to the dump? No. Karlsson’s incredible offensive instincts and abilities are not meant to kill penalties. Despite that, Karlsson still spends over a minute per game killing penalties. He ranks 114th in shorthanded ice time overall. Jonathan Toews has been nominated for the Selke Trophy numerous times and he ranks 86th as of March 25.

Just like Toews deserves to be nominated for the Selke because of his incredible play at even strength, Karlsson deserves to win because of his domination at even strength.

So who should win the Norris Trophy?

It would be negligent to imply that Erik Karlsson is better defensively than Doughty. From a pure defensive standpoint, Drew Doughty has the upper hand. However, the Norris Trophy doesn’t go to the best defensive defenseman. It goes to the best overall defenseman. While Karlsson is close to Doughty defensively, Erik Karlsson is on an entire different level than everybody else offensively and that includes Drew Doughty.

Drew Doughty will get a Norris someday. Save it for a year when Doughty is better than Erik Karlsson.

Graphs courtesy of Online Chart Tool. Historical data courtesy of Hockey Reference. Possession data courtesy of Hockey Analysis.

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