Fantasy Sleepers: 4 Options at Outfield in 2016

Outfield sleepers usually have guys with the lowest ADP and the highest potential ceilings in terms of fantasy. Who should you target?

Outfield has the largest player pool of any position in the draft (obviously) and outfielders typically give some of the best fantasy production. Below are four options on draft day to help bolster your bench.

Michael Conforto

I love Conforto in dynasty and keeper leagues. There is a big difference in the prospect rankings that we typically like to use and this led to Conforto being undervalued; when the prospect rankings factor in defense — something Conforto was dinged on for his average fielding and below average speed — the fantasy community can in turn devalue the player even though Conforto has great offensive potential. And that’s all we really care about, right?

In his brief cup of coffee in the majors, Conforto impressed in the production department but there are areas of the game that shows signs he can grow. First, Conforto has always been heralded for his approach at the plate. In only 13 months of professional baseball, the Mets had enough faith to call him and to say they were rewarded would be an understatement. He walked almost nine percent of the time and only struck out 20.1 percent, which is pretty good for a rookie. Further, Conforto has true power: Conforto had a 40% Hard Hit rate, good for eighth in the majors squeezed in between Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper. More so, his exit velocity average was even better, slotting him third overall behind Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Sano.

There are some questions. I think the platoon potential for Conforto is being overblown and losing ABs against lefties really isn’t that big of a deal — especially because there aren’t many lefty starters in the NL East (according to early reports, I could only find three lefties in the NL East that he’ll be facing: Manny Banuelos, Wei-Yen Chen, and Gio Gonzalez). And don’t worry about Conforto’s home park either. The home run factor is already better than average of the past few years and for left-handed batters, it’s 7th best in the league at 1.264.

Conforto isn’t ranked in the top 60 outfielders on ESPN and his ADP for Yahoo! puts him passed round 20. He is the perfect guy that could impress and be your No. 3 outfielder.

Projected 2016 Season Stats

Stephen Piscotty

I’ve already written on Stephen Piscotty and his breakout potential in 2016. Since then, I think most of the fantasy community is in on Piscotty — including making the distinction that they prefer Piscotty over Grichuk — but no one has really tapped into what I mention in my blog piece. 

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In summary, Piscotty has never been a huge prospect but his value rose when the Cardinals told him to hit for more power. And I believe when people look at his minor league numbers, the sudden power output has tricked people into thinking it’s not duplicable but it was derived from a change in philosophy for Piscotty as a hitter. After analyzing his 2015 minor league BABIP, I could only come to one assertion: the .304 BABIP he posted in AAA was unlucky. Everything in Piscotty’s Batted Ball profile — from his batted ball type, to his contact rates (only 15.6% soft contact), to his batted ball distribution (34.6%/31.3%/34.1%) — tells me that he is a guy who will routinely post above average BABIPs. Even though his minor league BABIP for 2015 doesn’t support that, the advanced numbers tell a different story. This is where surface level analytics can be tricky and it really takes a dive into the details to make some valuable judgements on a player’s potential. If you want more details, you can read my blog entry at the top.

Piscotty is a player who could have multiple position eligibility. While his stock has risen in the past month, he is still a buy low candidate with a very high ceiling in 2016.

Projected 2016 Season Stats

Cameron Maybin

Currently, Maybin is nursing a hairline fracture in his so his chances of making the Opening Day roster are slim. However, Maybin is the center fielder for what is expected to be a great offense in 2016. So where is the love?

Maybin had a nice 2015 where he finished 119th on the ESPN Player Rater and the top 150 overall on Yahoo!. But the upside he provides is even greater than the season he turned in last year. The best part is, nothing has to improve in terms of what is in Maybin’s control. Simply moving from a team that was ranked 30th last year in offense to a team projected to be top ten can increase his Runs and RBIs. Since Maybin was able to secure the ranking with only 141 games played, the injury shouldn’t pull down the projections either. And while there have been rumblings of a platoon with Anthony Gose, his career .202 average vs LHP assures that Maybin gets the majority of starts.

So of course, he is promptly being drafted outside the top 250 picks this season. In fact, you may not have to draft Maybin in most leagues because of depth in the outfield. Right now, Maybin isn’t even among the top 80 outfielders on ESPN Rankings. Monitor his progress as he returns from injury and pounce if the early returns are promising.

Projected 2016 Season Stats

Odubel Herrera

There are plenty reasons why you won’t draft Odubel Herrera in 2016. Herrera is not a slugger by any means but he is the one constant in the Phillies outfield this year. The reasons why I’m higher on Maybin this year don’t really exist for Herrera — terrible offense, ranked lower in 2015. So why is he on this list?

Because he is good. And I don’t mean deep league good, I mean he is an absolutely good hitter. In 2015, he posted a top 30 LD percent. He slashed a Batted Ball distribution of 35.2 Pull/32.3 Cent/32.5 Oppo percentages; you don’t see a rookie able to take the ball to all parts of the field very often. He hits righties and lefties evenly as well. And while his BABIP is sky-high — .387 isn’t as bad as it looks considering Herrera’s batted ball profile — his HR/FB suggests that he has growth in the power department if he could expand his power to all parts of the field. I think the best part is that he matured as the season went on; his .329/.394/.440 slash line after the All-Star break suggested growth as his BB-rate rose and his K-rate fell.

So while the jury has been out on just what we could see from him in 2016, it’s been very encouraging to see him bat .424 this spring as he ramps up for the season. Herrera is being taken outside the top 250 on Yahoo! as is ranked 82nd overall in the outfield on ESPN.

Projected 2016 Season Stats

Next: Wilson Ramos: Rebound Candidate?

I also wanted to throw out these names because I think they are undervalued. While they aren’t sleepers, I fully expect them to outperform their ADP and drafting is all about having guys that cost less than they’re worth. Those outfielders are Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, and Josh Reddick. If you see these players slide, make sure to scoop them up.