NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for March 28
Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
First, I would like to thank all the readers pf Picks and Pivots as it has been two weeks since I started this column and yesterday I had my highest amount of readers to date! I have gotten very valuable feedback from a number of you and I appreciate all the support. Please continue to provide me feedback @2lockSports!
Looking ahead to tonight’s slate which kicks off at 7:30PM EST, many of the Vegas lines are TBD as the status of many key players continues to be a guessing game up until tip off. With Demarcus Cousins unlikely for tonight and with the value already available it will be very easy to afford the remaining two high priced studs in Russell Westbrook & Kevin Durant. Let’s look ahead to some of the key plays for tonight!
Point Guard
- Goran Dragic – ($6,800) – Over the last 3 weeks one of the most consistent players in NBA DFS has been Dragic as he has hit 5x value over 50% of the time. Outside of a clunker against the Spurs, Dragic has averaged 37.5 points per game in 4 of his last 5, good for over 5x value. With a match-up against the Nets on tap, who provide one of the best match-ups to opposing PG on the season, locking in this production at a very reasonable price will build a safe floor and allow you to spend up at the other PG spot which is loaded at the top.
- DJ Augustin ($4,900) – My good friend and newest member to the FanSided team, Matt Rogers(@MattyMcMatt17) has been all over this pick the last two days in his FanDuel Economics articles and Augustin has been a big reason for my success as a result. Augustin has put up 37 and 36 points the last two games, good for 7x value. Check out Matt’s write up on Augustin and other’s today:
- Raymond Felton ($4,100) – I expect Augustin will be popular based off his recent performance and value hunters will continue to look at JJ Barea however for a similar price point, I will go back to Felton as I did yesterday with much success. Felton has put up 29 and 31 points his last two games and the Nuggets present one of the most favorable matchups to opposing SG on the season. Felton was significantly under owned yesterday and was able to outscore the more popular Barea which gave gamers a nice advantage in yesterday’s slate. With a larger slate tonight, I expect Felton to continue to go over looked and I will look to utilize him again this evening.
Shooting Guard
- Zach Lavine – ($6,100) – The Timberwolves and Suns square off tonight in a game with a favorable Vegas total and an expected close spread. Targeting the Suns across the board should be a profitable strategy, and Lavine will continue to be a staple of my picks as long as his prices sits in this range. In their last game out against the Suns, Lavine put up 32 points and I feel safe utilizing Lavine again tonight as he is locked in major minutes and gives us the ability to lock in steady production.
- Wes Matthews ($4,400) – One of the best aspects of players on back to backs is DFS sites typically do not adjust their prices, so I am going to play Wes again today as I don’t expect his price to sit this low next game out. Matthews had a bad game yesterday but still played 35 minutes so my hope is gamers move away from him after getting burned on Sunday and I can get reduced ownership on a player who averaged 35 points in the previous two games.
Small Forward
- Rudy Gay – ($6,400) – With the news that Demarcus Cousins is unlikely to play tonight, I expect gamers to pivot to Gay at Small Forward however I will not be one of them. Gay sees the biggest usage increase with Cousins off the floor however his fantasy points per minute stays static so the production is not following the increased usage. I will look to pivot off Gay and for $200 more target Andrew Wiggins ($6,600) who has a favorable match-up against Phoenix and put up 35 points against them last time out.
- Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900) – Aminu has posted 30+ point games in two of his last 3 games, is playing major minutes and gets a favorable match-up against the Kings tonight. At this price point, Aminu makes a great bargain play to utilize when trying to fit in the pricey Thunder superstars.
Power Forward/Center
I am going to combine these positions as my targets here are both direct results of Demarcus Cousins unlikely to suit up tonight against Portland.
- Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,900) – WCS has put up 30 and 40 points his last two games out and with Boogie out, I expect the rookie to be a very popular value pick tonight however I have no issue playing chalk here a bit as Portland has been a place to target the guys upfront all season. If I can get 7-10x value at any position, it is worth rolling the dice on and I will look to differentiate my lineup elsewhere!
- Kosta Koufos ($3,800) – Last time Koufus started for Boogie he threw up 35 points so I expect Koufus will be a popular bargain Center option tonight. In larger tournaments, I would consider pivoting to Omer Asik ($3,900) or Alexis Ajinca ($3,800) as the Pelicans continue to give both players solid minutes and they are overwhelmingly depleted up front. Both Ajinca and Asik have put up 30+ point games recently so the ability to match Koufos is there and if Koufos struggles can give you a huge GPP advantage.
Next: Is Willie Cauley-Stein Worth Picking Up?
Best of luck tonight gamers!