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NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks March 29

By Brian Tulloch

Mar 5, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) directs the offense against the Boston Celtics during the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs won 120-103. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) directs the offense against the Boston Celtics during the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs won 120-103. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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NBA Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for March 29

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming NBA FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!=

Looking ahead to tonight’s slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST with 6 games, the big early news is that LeBron James has already been ruled out which takes one of the biggest stars off the slate but also opens up numerous value options. Let’s take a look at some of the key plays for Tuesday:

Point Guard

  • Kyrie Irving ($7,000) – The minute the news broke about LeBron, I already had Kyrie locked into my lineups for this evening. With LeBron in the lineup, Kyrie averages .85 fantasy points per minute with 27% usage however when the King is out, nobody on the Cavs sees a bigger boost. Irving’s usage percentage skyrockets to 41% and his fantasy points per minute increases to 1.23. After sitting out last game, I expect Irving to play a full complement of minutes and crush value without LeBron in the lineup.
  • Elfrid Payton ($5,700) – After sitting out multiple games with an injury, Payton has returned to the lineup and averaged 37 points over his last 3 games, buoyed by a 48 point triple double against Detroit. Going up against the Nets, one of the best matchups to opposing PG’s on the year, Payton should be able to easily reach value. Even in his “down” game to Miami during his recent stretch he still managed to put up 28.9 points which is good for 5x value. I expect players will look to drop down to Ish Smith in the mid-range or move all the way to the punt options, leaving Payton under owned. Locking in 5x value as my floor with the upside this matchup presents, lets me spend up on our next player.

Shooting Guard

  • James Harden ($11,000) – The Beard is just locked in right now with 4 straight games over 50 points. Initially the matchup against the Cavs made me hesitant but over the last 3 weeks, Cleveland has given up the 3rd most points to opposing SG’s. With the Rocket’s needing to win to make the playoffs and the fact we have a short slate, Harden is the must play at a weak SG position on Tuesday.

Small Forward

  • Robert Covington ($6,100) – I have sworn off Covington more times than I can count this year as it seems like every time I play him he puts up a dud. However, after returning from an injury 3 games ago, Covington has hit 31,31 and 30 points – amazing consistency for such an inconsistent player. On the season, with Okafor and Noel off the court, Covington see his usage increase and his fantasy points per minute increase to 1.04. Assuming, Covington continues to see his 30 minutes a game, I feel comfortable locking in another 30+ point(5x value) outing from Covington.

Power Forward

  • Kevin Love ($6,900) – Another “No LeBron” special here. Love’s usage increases from 21% to 27% and he sees a slight increase in fantasy points per minute to 1.07. The Rockets present one of the most favorable matchups to opposing PF’s and at this price point, Love feels like a must play.
  • Draymond Green ($8,500) – I absolutely want exposure to the Warriors and Wizards as the game is projected to total well over 220 points so there should be plenty of fantasy points to be had. Green has been averaging 45 points over his last 4 games and his ability to rack up non scoring stats as a constant triple double threat gives us the ability to lock in an elite player at a price tag well lower than it was at earlier in the season.

Center

  • Ian Mahinmi ($5,100) – Mahinmi has back to back games with 38 and 33 points, hitting over 6 times value! The Bulls have been one of the best matchups on the year to opposing big men so the potential is there for another high upside game at a budget friendly price.

Next: Is Willie Cauley-Stein Worth Pick Up For The Stretch Run?

Best of luck tonight gamers! As always keep an eye out on the late breaking news throughout the day as the season winds down and players start to take games off!