Sidney Crosby should win the Hart Trophy this season, but he has some very tough competition.
The Hart Trophy race for the 2015-2016 has been thought of as being one-sided with Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks being the obvious favorite. Kane has been incredible this season and one could argue he’s having the most productive season that an American has ever had. However, he has some tough competition in Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars. Is leading the league in points enough to get Kane the Hart Trophy?
It’s important to realize that the Hart Trophy goes to the “player judged most valuable to his team”. Most valuable player and best player are not necessarily one and the same. If the Hart Trophy went to the best player in the league, Kane would win the award and it would likely be unanimous. However, Kane is not the league’s most valuable player.
Patrick Kane’s MVP case is lacking
While Kane has been unbelievable this season and his level of production is one that is rarely witnessed, one could argue that Kane isn’t even the most valuable player to the Blackhawks. Corey Crawford (a likely Vezina finalist), Jonathan Toews (a likely Selke Trophy finalist), and Duncan Keith (easily one of the top ten defensemen in the NHL) are each equally as valuable as Kane to the team, if not more so.
Toews plays noticeably tougher minutes than Kane. Kane’s talent is undeniable, but looking at his usage, it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t been set up to succeed when you look at his zone start percentage (a stat that shows how many offensive zone starts a player has compared to the rest of his team) at home (where Quenneville can match lines). Credit Chicago’s front office for creating such a deep team and credit Joel Quenneville for utilizing Kane so brilliantly.
One could argue that Jonathan Toews is more valuable to his team than Kane because of the tough minutes that he plays. Teuvo Teravainen sliding in as the team’s third line center and taking on tough minutes along with Andrew Shaw has helped Kane get favorable zone starts as well. As magnificent as Kane has been this season, it is difficult to view him as the most valuable player in the league if a darn good argument could be had that he’s not the MVP of his own team.
Kane’s undeniable importance to the Blackhawks offense will help his case. He has played a role in 42.27 percent of Chicago’s even strength goals (52 points) and 44.5 percent of their overall goals (94 points). That can’t be denied.
Jamie Benn’s Hart Trophy chances
There is another wing who could win the Hart Trophy: Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars. Benn, like Kane, has been extremely productive. For a while, Benn was likely going to face the problem of splitting votes with linemate Tyler Seguin. However, with Seguin’s injury, that gives Benn an opportunity to separate himself from Seguin. Benn hasn’t been quite as productive as Kane, but when one considers the tough minutes that Benn plays and his zone start relative percentage, it’s hard to argue that he’s not one of the more valuable players in the NHL.
Jamie Benn is quite deserving of the Hart Trophy. Fewer players in the league have dominated their competition quite like him, especially when one considers the tough minutes that he plays. His importance can’t be denied as he has been on the ice for 118 Stars goals this season, or 48.16 percent of their overall goals scored. He doesn’t have the gaudy plus-minus rating of Kane, but that’s to be expected since Benn faces significantly tougher minutes and less favorable zone starts. However, is he the NHL’s most valuable player to his own team? Nope, that would be Sidney Crosby.
Why Sidney Crosby should win the Hart Trophy
Back in November, center Sidney Crosby was in the midst of arguably the worst struggle of his career. Through his first 28 games, Sidney Crosby had just 19 points. For everyone else, that might be good. But for Sidney Crosby, that’s simply terrible. On his career, he is averaging 3.7 points per 60 minutes during all situations.
On December 12th, the day that the Penguins fired head coach Mike Johnston, Crosby saw that number almost cut in half with just two points per 60 minutes. Mike Sullivan has Crosby producing as usual with 3.7 points per 60 minutes since being hired. That’s good for 59 points in 46 games.
By comparison, Kane has 3.6 points per 60 minutes this season as of March 28th. However, comparing their even strength production, Kane and Crosby has been equals, each having 2.6 points per 60 minutes while at even strength. Sidney Crosby has been more valuable than Kane because he’s been asked to do so much and is still producing at an impressive rate.
What’s important in that graph is that Sidney Crosby makes his team so much better both on offense and defense despite playing the toughest minutes and not getting that many offensive zone starts compared to, say, Evgeni Malkin. Benn and Sidney Crosby are about as close as it gets in terms of production and overall statistical value.
However, Sidney Crosby has an intangible working for him. He has played his best hockey while the Penguins haven’t had Evgeni Malkin. The Pittsburgh Penguins have needed Crosby to be at his best as they have been sans Malkin for a good part of this season. Crosby has raised his level of play to an impressive level even considering Crosby’s high standards when Malkin has been out of the lineup. Sidney Crosby has 23 points in 19 games without Malkin since the beginning of February.
Part of that is due to more ice time, but it’s very telling that Sid the Kid has done outstanding even when teams have been able to hone in on stopping him. That’s what MVPs do. They step up their game when their teams need them the most. That’s precisely what Crosby has done this season.
While Jamie Benn and Patrick Kane are certainly strong candidates and Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators and Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins are also among those who should get serious Hart Trophy consideration, it’s clear that Crosby is the most valuable player in the NHL.
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All stats are as of March 28th. Graphs and data courtesy of War-On-Ice.