Ivica Zubac Scouting Report: March 2016

Ivica Zubac is a nice representation of the struggles that still can exist in evaluating international players. Zubac has steadily climbed up 2016 NBA Draft boards throughout the season, and has done so while playing just 104 minutes of organized basketball this year. Zubac started the year at KK Cibona in Croatia, averaging 7.2 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in a backup role. But after a minor scandal involving unpaid wages, Zubac was granted release from Cibona, and signed with Cedevita before leaving there as well due to playing time and signing with Mega Leks in Serbia. While the 7-1 Croatian center has not played a game since Jan. 3, he continues to rise up draft boards partly because his situation has made it more and more likely that he will come to the NBA.

From a talent standpoint, it’s easy to see why Zubac is gaining steam. Along with fellow international Paul Zipser and new teammate Timothe Luwawu, Zubac is an international who represents a versatile, clearly useful type of player NBA teams covet. He’s still a bit raw on both ends, but Zubac has a skill set developing that could make him fit as a more modern full-time five in the NBA, à la Andrew Bogut or Timofey Mozgov. Even better, Zubac’s new deal with Mega Leks has friendly NBA opt-outs built in for the next two summers, making him an ideal draft-and-stash candidate.

Let’s dive further into why Zubac is attracting so much NBA attention.

Offense

Zubac projects as an outlet option offensively. He’s not ever going to be a 20-point scorer, and he will do most of his damage without the ball in his hands. Zubac’s at his best finishing off pick-and-rolls, cuts, and put-backs, and he has excellent polish around the rim, converting on 68.7 percent of his 2-point shots for his career. He uses his size well when attacking the rim, and is an absolute freight train finishing through contact, though he also is nimble enough to gather and finish on the break.

Zubac projects nicely as a pick-and-roll dive man, as he uses his body well on screens and is mobile enough to clear space in the lane if his guard decides to drive.

Zubac doesn’t really offer much in terms of shooting — a vast majority of his looks come within 5 feet of the basket. Zubac needs to work on his shooting mechanics, both on his release and on his set shot. He shot just 57.1 percent from the line in Adriatic League play this year, and while his shooting form can be good, he needs to develop better consistency with his release in order to improve this. Zubac isn’t Hack-a-Shaq bad, but for a guy who finishes that well against contact, being able to consistently hit the and-1 shot would be a very useful tool. More concerning are his jumper mechanics since he gets minimal bounce out of his legs and he often will kick out his right leg, making his natural jumper motion a slight fall-away. Continuing to improve this and developing at least a tenable 15-footer would be helpful.

Zubac compensates for his lack of shooting prowess with a well-developed post game. Zubac probably has the second-best post game in this draft class behind Utah big Jacob Poeltl, and it’s a weapon that can allow him to be a more diverse threat than just a dive man. Zubac’s go-to move is a smooth baseline spin move, although he’s also strong with either hand on jump-hooks and I really enjoy his half-spin up-and-under move that is relatively new to his arsenal:

Zubac can have some difficulty getting these looks off against larger opponents, which is why his post game will probably not be a go-to weapon in the NBA. But he can do it comfortably if needed, and he’s great against a mismatch. He can also pass pretty comfortably out of a post-up, which is promising. Zubac’s probably at his best as an off-ball weapon, but his post-game diversifies things and makes him a stronger offensive option.

Defense

Zubac looks the part of a capable defender at the next level, but he does need significant work on this end to be a factor. Zubac’s size and mobility should allow him to function highly at post defense, rim protection, and defensive rebounding — three things every good defensive center needs. But while he definitely has shown flashes of skill in all three, he also lacks a lot of fundamental polish.

Post defense is probably Zubac’s strongest defensive aspect so far. He uses his size well to deny opponent positioning and he won’t get backed down even by stronger bigs such as Maik Zirbes of Crvena Zvezda. He doesn’t read opponent moves well, though, and he can get thrown off-balance and mistime his recovery against spin-moves and ball fakes. This is something he should get better at with experience, but he needs some improvement here because he can be prone to fouling if he gets beat.

Zubac’s block numbers aren’t very impressive for a guy his size, but he has excellent mobility and it’s not hard to see him developing into a good pick-and-roll defender and rim protector. Zubac averaged 3.3 blocks per 36 minutes this past season and 3.6 per 40 minutes at the U19 championships over the summer, which are good but not dominant. He struggles at times with footwork, especially in the pick-and-roll, where he can get caught standing upright or flat-footed and he struggles to contain drives. However, Zubac’s mobility and 7-4 wingspan mean that he can still provide a contest even if he lets his man get near the rim.

Zubac’s positioning and footwork are major issues, because he can get out of position easily and he might struggle defending more perimeter-oriented bigs at the next level. But he just turned 19 a week ago, and there aren’t many bigs who have that down at that age, much less in European ball. It’s a concern, but something he should continue to improve at.

Defensive rebounding is probably a greater concern with Zubac than subpar rim protection. Zubac does decently at this, although with his size and mobility, he should be better than 7.1 defensive rebounds per 40 for his career. Zubac relies a lot on length around the basket, and doesn’t really establish position well on the rare occasions he attempts to box out. A majority of the rebounds Zubac gets are ones that fall close to the basket, and he is prone to getting beat by offensive players for longer boards. It’s not necessarily the biggest problem, because Zubac still puts up decent overall rebounding numbers since he’s a strong offensive rebounder. However, Zubac probably needs to be paired with a strong rebounding power forward to create quality team rebounding lineups, and that’s something to note.

Injury History

Zubac does have a history of both a stress fracture and a knee injury. He suffered the stress fracture in his foot in 2014, and missed two months last season with a mild knee injury. Neither appears to be a long-term concern; Zubac recovered well from the knee injury, and the stress fracture occurred when Zubac was 17, and those generally have a decent prognosis when they occur in adolescence. Zubac needs to prove that he can stay on the floor over a long stretch of games still but individually, none of his injuries are particularly concerning by themselves.

Overall Impression

Based on the admittedly limited knowledge we have on Zubac, he appears to fit the mold of a useful player archetype in the modern NBA. Zubac appears to be a similar player to guys like Mozgov or Tiago Splitter, playing 20-25 minutes as a screen-setter, finisher, and rim protector. He’s gigantic with deceptive mobility, a great combination, and while he lacks in some areas regarding fundamentals, he’s young and a lot of that can be developed.

Zubac is an ideal late 1st round draft-and-stash prospect, someone a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder could pick up and allow to get a year or two as a regular rotation guy at Mega Leks, then bring over as a way to replace Steven Adams for cheap. While Zubac hasn’t played much this year, his skills are very real, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drafted over more known commodities like Diamond Stone and Stephen Zimmerman.