MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 5

Oct 9, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester (34) reacts during game one of the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for April 5

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay-day!

Follow me on Twitter @2lockSports and feel free to pose questions each day as you work to construct your DFS roster on FanDuel!

With the new scoring changes, I recommend reviewing your entries each day to see what winning scores are taking home money each night across different types of games. Last night across various GPP’s the winning scores ranged from 230-250 with Clayton Kershaw’s 60 points being a common theme across the best entries! As a reminder some of the key scoring changes this year are as follows:

Pitcher: Win (12pts), Strikeout (3), IP(3), ER (-3)
Hitters: HR(12), Triple (9), Double (6) and Single (3)

Today’s games start at 1:05PM EST and FanDuel offers an Early only slate with the 3 afternoon games however the main slate(where I will focus) kicks off at 7:05PM EST with 9 games on tap. Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Oct 17, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the second inning in game one of the NLCS at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Starting Pitcher

Jon Lester ($10,700) – Three days into the season and we are through many of the teams aces which opens up more favorable hitting matchups across the board. The best pitching options today find themselves in the early slate making the later slate a bit trickier to navigate but the Cubs lefty is a great option this evening. Picking our starting pitchers in FanDuel is the most important roster choice we will make and to me – Lester checks off the 3 key boxes I look for. First, Lester and the Cubs are favored to win against the Angels tonight and that 12 points for the victory will make or break our cash position most nights. Second, I want to target pitchers who strike hitters out and Lester finished last year with a favorable K rate of 25%. Lastly, I want to target teams who strike out a lot, and best matchup on the board is the Angels today as they struck out 26% of the time against opposing LHP. The Angels lineup of course has Mike Trout and Albert Pujols but look at the rest of the lineup – Yunel Escobar, Kole Calhoun etc – and tell me that Lester can’t navigate through that and get us the win!
Shelby Miller ($7,700) – Miller is an interesting pivot value play today as he has the highest Vegas chance to win (although in fairness so did Zack Greinke and he got pounded last night). Miller pitched very well last year but got absolutely no run support but tonight the Diamondbacks are projected to score the most runs of any team allowing us to chase a win at a cheaper price point. One additional value pivot play is Aaron Sanchez ($6,700) who won a rotation spot with the Blue Jays by posting a sub 2.00 ERA with 19k’s over 20 IP during Spring Training. Sanchez is risky as he heads to Tampa Bay, but with the Blue Jays lineup to support him, he gets to face Jake Odorizzi who although favored today pitched to a 5+ERA last year in 3 starts against Toronto.

Next: Top Hitters

Sep 15, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners designated hitter Nelson Cruz (23) hits a solo-homer against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

Hitters

Nelson Cruz ($4,000) – As we learned yesterday, targeting a stud hitter like Bryce Harper in a favorable matchup is a safe way to build a roster with a profitable floor and tremendous upside. Cruz flat-out mashes lefties to the tune of a .357 average last year. Cruz hit .375 last year over 32 at bats in Rangers ballpark and going up against Martin Perez who he is 2 for 3 against all time, gives us the ability to target a player who can hit multiple homeruns today.
Diamondbacks Hitters – A popular stack today will be Arizona as they have the highest projected run total of any team. C- Wellington Castillo ($2,600) gets the benefit of batting cleanup right behind Paul Goldschmidt and Rockies starter Chad Bettis actually showed reverse splits last year giving up a .284 average to opposing right-handed hitters. SS Jean Segura ($2,700) in the leadoff spot and OF – David Peralta ($3,300) make for a cost-effective stacking option in a very favorable matchup.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,200) and Adrian Beltre ($3,300) – Two of the best Batter Versus Pitcher Splits today are found at the corner IF spots with two veteran run producers. Gonzo is 10 for 34 lifetime against SD starter James Shields with 2 home runs. Beltre has a similar 11 for 36 mark against Mariners hurler Hisashi Iwakuma with 3 home runs. Both players are in prime lineup spots and at reasonable price points considering their past success.
Weather – Most of tonight’s games favor the hitters, but the Cardinals-Pirates game will be just above freezing today and the hitters in this matchup may make for good fades entirely unless you want a contrarian cold weather GPP stack.

Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups! Have a great day gamers!