DraftKings MLB Picks For April 13
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For April 13
There are 12 games going on tonight, which gives us plenty of options to choose from. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Carlos Carrasco (11,900): Carrasco is the highest priced player on the boards today, but he is worth it. He will be heavily owned due to his dominance against the current Rays team. They are just 7-46(.152) with a solo home run off of him. That was by Evan Longoria, who has just a single besides that home run in 16 at bats off of Carrasco. He has also fanned 16 of those 46 at bats. Carrasco should be worth the money tonight.
Michael Pineda ($8,900): First of all, he is facing J.A. Happ, who doesn’t have the greatest track record against the Yankees. Second, Pineda has held the current Blue Jays roster to a .225 average in 102 at bats with 21 strikeouts. He has allowed three home runs, but two of those were to Jose Bautista, who has only managed a single besides those bombs in 19 at bats. That makes Bautista ($4,700) a good all-or-nothing play.
Honorable Mention:
Yordano Ventura ($8,500): I like that he is pitching against Scott Feldman, but not that he is pitching against the Astros. Still, he has only allowed five extra base hits in 40 at bats to Houston, and none of those have left the yard. He has only struck out seven, but the Astros have a penchant for striking out. There is potential here.
Dark Horses:
Joe Kelly ($6,100): Kelly did not look good in his first start of the season, and the Orioles have the best record in baseball. How could this possibly work? Well, Kelly has faced current Orioles hitters 70 times and given up just 15 hits (.214). He has also struck out 17. I don’t deny the risk, but Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop, and Adam Jones are combined 3-25 with one RBI. That is a big chunk of the lineup that doesn’t see him well.
Shane Greene ($5,200): Greene was one of the worst pitchers that started more than ten games last year. I get it. But he is going up against 38 year old Ryan Vogelsong, and he fared well in his only other start against Pittsburgh. He has given up 4 hits on 20 at bats to current Pirates players, with just a solo home run by Matt Joyce ($2,100) being the only damage. If you are looking to roll the dice, Greene may pay off.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The Dodgers love Rubby De La Rosa. The current team has hit a robust .402 with seven homers and 20 RBI off of him in just 82 at bats. Andre Ethier has one of those home runs and five of the RBI, but there are still others that will work. Yasmani Grandal ($3,300) has two hits (a double and a homer) in six at bats while walking twice and driving in a pair. Joc Pederson ($3,600) is 3-10 with a home run and four RBI. Justin Turner ($3,400) is 3-12 with a solo home run. However, the one that has done the most damage is Howie Kendrick ($3,700). The price reflects this, but use him anyway. Kendrick is 10-18 with a homer and two RBI off of De La Rosa. He should be worth the cost.
Jake Peavy has held the Rockies to a .239 average in 134 at bats, but this game is at Coors Field, and some Blake Streeters have bombed him in his career. Nolan Arenado ($4,900) is 5-12 with two doubles, a home run, and three RBI off of Peavy. Ben Paulsen‘s ($3,300) only hit in four at bats is a solo home run. The one that has hit him the hardest is Ryan Raburn ($3,600). Expect the Rockies to give Rayburn the start given his history against Peavy. Rayburn has only three hits in 15 at bats, but two of those are home runs, and he has driven in eight runs off of Peavy. That makes him a solid gamble.
Some of you may be wondering why I didn’t recommend Stephen Strasburg against the Braves. Sounds like a good matchup, right? The stats say no. The Braves are hitting .294 in 102 at bats off of Strasburg. Kelly Johnson ($2,800) and Jeff Francouer ($2,400) have both taken him deep, and Nick Markakis ($3,400) has four hits off of him, but it has been Freddie Freeman that has punished Strasburg. Freeman ($4,100) is 12-31(.387) with six walks, two doubles, three homers, and nine RBI off of Strasburg. Yes, Stras will get the strikeouts, but I don’t trust him. I will play Freeman instead.
Joey Votto ($4,700) and Jay Bruce ($4,100) are a combined 8-36 off of John Lackey, but each of them have homered twice. Votto has driven in five and Bruce four. These are enticing picks when you aren’t punished for outs. So is Billy Hamilton ($4,000). The speedster is off to a slow start, but he is 6-18 in his career against Lackey.
Stacking White Sox against Phil Hughes is a good idea. The team is only hitting .262 off of him, but the stars have hurt him the most. Jose Abreu ($4,700) is 7-21 with three doubles and three RBI. Brett Lawrie ($3,600) is a modest 8-31, but he has a home run and a pair of RBI. Austin Jackson ($3,400) could be the guy to play though. He is 10-30 with a double, a triple, two homers, and three RBI off of Hughes.
Jordan Lyles has not fared well against the Giants. Hunter Pence ($5,100) is 4-12 with a homer and two RBI. Angel Pagan ($4,100) is 4-10 off of Lyles. Both Buster Posey ($4,900) and Andrew Susac ($3,300) have taken him deep. It has been Gregor Blanco ($3,700) that has really lit him up though. Blanco is 5-10 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Lyles.
The Red Sox are another good lineup to stack against Ubaldo Jimenez. Blake Swihart ($3,300) has a solo homer in three at bats. David Ortiz ($4,600) is just 2-19 against Jimenez, but he has a homer and three RBI. Dustin Pedroia ($4,200) is 9-24(.375) with four RBI. Both Mookie Betts ($5,100) and Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) have four hits in 12 at bats. However, it has been Pablo Sandoval ($3,700) that has had Ubaldo’s number. Panda is 14-39(.359) with two walks, two doubles, a triple, two homers, and seven RBI off of Jimenez.
Next: More Notes For 4-13
I did recommend Joe Kelly, but Pedro Alvarez ($3,600) has managed to hit him well. Alvarez is 4-15(.267) with a double, a homer, and four RBI off of Kelly. Chris Davis ($4,800) is 4-7, but only has one extra base hit (a double) off of Kelly with no RBI.
Wellington Castillo ($3,100) is 2-5 with a homer and three RBI off of Alex Wood. Paul Goldschmidt ($5,300) is 4-9 with two walks, two homers, and four RBI off of the Dodger youngster. If you don’t trust Freeman against Strasburg, Goldschmidt is worth paying for.
Why didn’t I recommend Drew Smyly against Cleveland besides the fact that Carlos Carrasco has owned the Rays? Two words: Yan Gomes ($3,100). Gomes has a single, a double, and two solo homers off of Smyly in just eight at bats.
Alcides Escobar ($3,700) has more RBI (five) than hits (four) off of Scott Feldman. Alex Gordon ($4,000) is 10-23(.435) with three RBI off of Feldman.
If you are looking to break away from the pack, Edwin Encarnacion ($4,700) is 7-22(.318) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI off of Michael Pineda.
Ryan Vogelsong has held his own against the current Tigers lineup, but Justin Upton ($4,100) still hits him. Upton is 9-28(.321) with three doubles, three walks, a triple, and three RBI off of the veteran.
Jonathan Lucroy ($3,600) has hammered Mike Leake in his career. Lucroy is 12-29(.414) with three walks, a double, a homer, and four RBI off of Leake.
Happ has done okay against most of the Yankees, but not against Carlos Beltran ($3,600). Beltran is 7-24(.292) with two walks, a double, three homers, and six RBI off of Happ. If he is in the lineup, play him.
Anthony Rizzo ($5,200) is 5-15 with two homers and three RBI off of Alfredo Simon. The rest of the team is a combined 10-44 with two RBI.
Yes, the Twins hit lefties well, but they are struggling this year, and Brian Dozier is 0-4 against Carlos Rodon. the only success off of the Sox young lefty is Miguel Sano ($4,100) who has a solo home run off of him. That is the only damage done to Rodon by the Twins’ current roster.
Next: FanDuel Economics For April 13
Good luck out there, and don’t forget to check out our FanDuel picks as well!