FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 14th Picks

FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 14th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Thursday April 14th Picks edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

MLB Thursdsay’s have a shorter schedule and typically more afternoon than evening games.  The day starts as early as 12:35pm ET today.  So start setting your lineups early!  There are five games before 2pm ET, two games between 3-5pm ET, and five games after 7ET.  FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day.  Here’s a brief look at the breakout of times:

• 12:35pm ET (All Day)
• 12:35pm ET (Early Only)
• 7:07pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.  Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups, follow me or tweet questions @MattyMcMatt17. 

Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Value Pitchers (SP)

Unlike the seven-day trend approach for hitters, I focus on 30-day trends for pitchers.  It’s easier to get a better read on a pitcher over a couple of starts.  Given starting pitchers only throw every five to seven days, the 30-day approach allows for a better trend to analyze.  So, at this point in the season, we’re looking at starting pitcher season-to-date points compared to salary.

Unlikely yesterday, there are a ton of great value options at SP today.

The Phillies are currently in a re-build phase and may have already found a gem in a great young, 23 yr old, pitcher Vincent Velasquez.  In New York, against the Mets, Vincent threw 6.0 innings, walked 3, gave up only 3 hits, fanned 9, and yielded no earned runs while taking the win.  That’s a fantastic start to the season for a young pitcher against a team playing in the World Series just six months ago.  In total, Velasquez compiled 57 points.  At a $7,400 salary that’s a 7.9X value, 2nd among all starting pitchers year-to-date.  With his current salary even 35 points, 22 less than he earned last week, would land him at a 5X+ value.  So Vincent Velasquez is a pretty solid bet to give you 30+ points on a salary cheap enough to allow you to load up on some other lineup spots with expensive but consistently valuable hitters.  Today Velasquez will pitch at home against the San Diego Padres (1:05pm ET).

If you’re not convinced with Velasquez, or want to fade his play, he’s facing Drew Pomeranz who’s pitching against the Phillies today.  I stayed away from Pomeranz on the 9th because he was pitching in Coors Field against the Rockies, and the Padres had a shaky start to the season so far.  Drew surprised me.  Over 5 innings Pomeranz gave up 4 hits, 3 walks, but fanned 7 and ended the game with a 3.60 ERA and the win.  In total, Drew compiled 42 points and on a $6,000 salary today that also sounds like a great bargain.  My main concern with Pomeranz is he’s dueling with Velasquez who is also as strong, if not stronger.  Still, he may get you a decent amount of points, 30-40, on a salary that really allows you to do many things with hitters.

A more expensive option, but still a top ten, 9th, value option at 6.3X is Ian Kennedy.  Ian’s salary is $8,400 which is expensive, but Kennedy dropped 53 points in his first outing of the year at home against the Twins.  Kennedy has the 5th most FanDuel points of all SP’s, sitting in-between Syndergaard and Kershaw, not bad company.  Kennedy is getting a fresh start in Kansas City after spending time with the Yankees, D-Backs, and Padres.  In 2011, Ian had an outstanding year in Arizona going 21-4, 198 K’s, 2.88 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP, so he’s capable of great things.  He also threw 207 K’s in 2014.  Last year was a down year, but he’s show the ability to consistently climb back.  The former USC Trojan is poised for another great bounce-back year and had a great start already.  Kennedy is certainly worth a strong consideration tonight in Houston (8:10pm ET).

Two other decent considerations are Mat Latos (1:10pm ET), 5.8X with a $6,300 salary, and Doug Fister (8:10pm ET), 5.4X with a $6,700 salary.  They both dropped 36 points in their first outing and their salaries are each very cheap for a 30+ pitcher.

One last point, a reminder.  Stephen Strasburg (4:05pm ET) was a late scratch yesterday for the Nats, who got a great game from Tanner Roark last night, and Strasburg will likely pitch today.  He’s too expensive to be considered a value option but could pile on points with K’s against a very bad Braves team, this year.

Next: Value Hitters

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

I talked about Brian McCann (C) on Tuesday and want to revisit McCann again.  The Yankees reportedly kept Brian out of the lineup yesterday because of a toe injury.  However, McCann isn’t as good of a hitter against lefties, which the Yankees faced yesterday.  Marcus Stroman, a right-hander, is up for the Blue Jays against the Yankees tomorrow.  So, if healthy, McCann will be back.  Brian’s salary is $1,300 cheaper than Buster Posey (day-to-day) at $3,600.  That is a very cheap salary considering McCann is averaging 23.2 PPG over the last week, generating a 6.8X value, 2nd behind Jeremy Hazelbaker, whom we visited yesterday, among all hitters.  In his four games over the last week McCann compiled 27, 21, 18, and 27 points.  So he’s also developing some tremendous high-point consistency as well.  Keep an eye on his status, but McCann would be a no-brainer pick for Catcher tonight (7:07pm ET).

Addison Russell (SS) isn’t an elite fantasy baseball option, yet.  But, he did hit 13 HR’s as a shortstop last year and while his stats may not have impressed anyone, he’s still only 22 years old.  His best days are likely ahead of him and so far this year he’s trending upward.  Over the last week, Russell averaged 12.6 PPG, which is pretty solid for a SS. But Addison’s salary is still only $2,700 making him a 4.7X value and a top 20 value hitter.  Russell smacked a home run against the Reds on Monday and landed at 27 points for the day.  Addison has been hitting 8th in the lineup, which seems like a bad spot, especially for runs, but he’s in a lineup comprised of many heavy and hot hitters.  He’s well worth a consideration tonight (8:05pm ET) to free up some cash for big bopper.

We’ve talked about Eugenio Suarez (3B) before and I’d like to revisit Eugenio again because I keep playing him and I’m rarely disappointed.  He is on fire and continues to smash the ball!  He’s also been a great pick-up for fantasy teams, in leagues.  Aside from Brandon Phillips (and potentially replacing him) Suarez is the best hitter on the Reds this year.  Over the last week, and including results through the 8th inning of last night, Suarez is averaging 20 PPG. Eugenio’s salary is $3,700, which may seem expensive, but his value is 5.4X making Suarez a top 15 value play, even with a $3,700 salary.  Eugenio Suarez is up again tonight (8:05pm ET) in Chicago against the Cubs.

An ‘off the radar’ play would be Preston Tucker (OF).  Tucker was in the outfield with Evan Gattis on the DL. However, Gattis is back and Evan is now hitting DH for the Astros and typically in the 6-spot of the lineup.  His average PPG of 10.5 over the last week may not seem that appealing, but his salary is only a very cheap $2,500.  That gives you a 4X value on a player hardly anyone is probably looking to plug into their lineup.  Also, 4X in MLB is a top 50 hitter, which is a good value.  Tucker has been getting hits, runs, and even hit 2 HR’s already giving you a 10-20 point range per game, which is pretty outstanding at a $2,500 salary.  And Tucker’s value gives you many options in all other lineup positions.  Preston is worth a consideration for your lineup tonight (8:10pm ET).  One risk, though, for tonight is he’s hitting against Ian Kennedy who has been on fire lately (see Value Pitchers page for today).

A few other players I’ve covered recently and continue to trend well with value are Daniel Murphy 2B (4:05pm ET) and Tyler White 1B (8:10pm ET).

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks For April 14

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers!  Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!