MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 13
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
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Although the day has three afternoon games on the schedule starting at 1:10PM EST with the Mets and Marlins , the main slate kicks off at 7:05PM EST with 10 games. Now on to the picks….
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitcher
- John Lackey ($8,500) – The top end of the starting pitcher slate tonight features Stephen Strasburg at home against the Nationals and I fully expect he will be highly owned due to his high strikeout upside, weak opponent and likelihood of getting the win. With a price tag over 11,000 and favorable hitting options in Coors and Boston, I will look to pivot to the veteran Lackey at almost $3,000 less. Lackey is an equally sizeable favorite to win at home against the Reds and without the strikeout upside we typically want to target, the 12 points for the win is critical here. Lackey has superb stats in his career against the Reds, holding them to a .214 average and pitching to a 2.75 ERA over 9 career stars.. The biggest danger with the Reds is going up against Joey Votto and Jay Bruce who are a combined 8 for 35(.228 avg) in their career against Lackey but have 4 home runs in those 8 at bats. I do not expect overly high ownership for Lackey due to the low strikeout upside but his ability to go deep into games and be in position for the win is highly valuable if you are looking to fade Strasburg.
- Drew Smyly ($8,700) – A potential high upside pivot in the same price range is the Tampa Bay pitcher who will be home for Carlos Carrasco and the Indians. Smyly is only a slight favorite as he goes up against one of the best opposing pitchers on the slate which puts the win at risk and makes this a GPP play only however there is solid value here. Smyly has a 27.2% K rate which is just slightly behind Carrasco and Strasburg yet he costs $2,000-$3,000 less. The mid $8k price range is littered with options today but nobody has the strikeout upside that the Rays starter has in that group so I am happy to roll him out in a few tournament lineups and hope he can not only beat Carrasco but outperform Strasburg and give us a decided advantage.
Next: Top Hitting Options
Hitters
- Rockies/Giants Stack – The Rockies bats were held down surprisingly last night and my hope is that sours some folks to this matchup with the two highest projected scoring teams but I want to go back to the well with the Rockies especially tonight and the reason is simple – Jake Peavy. Peavy was incredibly hittable in his first start this season giving up 10 hits in only 5 innings to the Dodgers and if that trend keeps up tonight he could be in for a LONG night against the Rockies. The lefty bats of Charlie Blackmon ($4,700), Carlos Gonzalez ($4,800) & Gerardo Parra ($3,400) are all squarely in play but do not discount Nolan Arenado ($5,000) who is 5 for 11 in his career against Peavy with 3 home runs.
- Freddie Freeman ($3,100) – I do not expect folks to actively target the Braves bats against Strasburg as they have the lowest team total of any team on the slate. However Freeman’s price point is very reasonable and his career BvP splits against Strasburg are something we should take note of – 12 for 31 (.387 avg) with 3 homeruns. This price point is very reasonable and allows you access to a top hitter while still being able to either stack the game in Coors which I plan to do heavily tonight.
- Red Sox Stack – Outside of Coors, the Red Sox are projected to be the next highest scoring team going up against Ubaldo Jimenez at home. Jimenez was dynamite in his first start of the season picking up a win over 7 innings of 1 run ball however topping out in the low 90’s and coming off two years with an ERA over 4 – this is a nice spot to play a contrarian Red Sox stack. Looking at the BvP stats, Pablo Sandoval ($2,400) is 14 for 39 against Jimenez in his career with two home runs so assuming he is in the lineup AND his belt buckle is working – he makes for a cheap punt play. A stack with some of the other key Red Sox bats is certainly in play as well with some great career BvP numbers:
- Mookie Betts ($4,200)/ Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) – both 5 for 12 in their careers.
- Dustin Pedroia ($2,900) – 9 for 24 in his career against Jimenez.
This game has the second highest total of the night behind the game in Coors and with great plays on both side, I recommend a strategic pivot in some GPP lineups in case the Rockies lineup fizzles again this evening
Next: DraftKings MLB Picks for April 13
Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups! Have a great day gamers!