FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 15th Picks

FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 15th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Friday April 15th Picks edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

MLB is back to a full slate of games, with 15 scheduled for Friday.  The day starts with only one early game at 2:20pm ET, when the Colorado Rockies face off against the Cubs in Chicago.  All other games start at, or after, 7:00pm ET. So you can most likely focus your lineup for the evening.  Also, injuries aside, all players are on the table of lineup options for today.  FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day.  Here’s a brief look at the breakout of times:

• 2:20pm ET (All Day)
  • Rockies at Cubs
• 7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.  Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups, follow me or tweet questions @MattyMcMatt17. 

Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Value Pitchers (SP)

Unlike the seven-day trend approach for hitters, I focus on 30-day trends for pitchers.  It’s easier to get a better read on a pitcher over a couple of starts.  Given starting pitchers only throw every five to seven days, the 30-day approach allows for a better trend to analyze.  So, at this point in the season, we’re looking at starting pitcher season-to-date points compared to salary.

Also, it’s important to understand FanDuel’s scoring of pitchers as it’s different from other DFS sites.  FanDuel’s scoring approach for pitchers is minimalistic in that you only get points for innings (+1 point for each out), K’s (+3pts), and wins (+12pts).  You lost points for earned runs given up (-3pts).  So we’re going to focus on pitchers who typically pitch a lot of innings, compile many strikeouts, and typically get a low ERA and best chance of winning.

Joe Ross (7:05pm ET) really impressed the Nationals last year and proved worthy of his trade.  Joe was rewarded with the 4th spot in the rotation this year after a strong spring.  In Ross’ first outing, against the Marlins, the only earned run he gave up was an RBI single to Stanton.  A lot of pitchers will trade an RBI single for a HR to Stanton.  Joe was able to pitch through 7 innings and also fanned 5 hitters, so he had a fairly clean first outing of the year.  In total, Ross compiled 45 points.  Joe’s salary today is only $7,200 making him a 6.2X value with 45 points, assuming he could replicate that outcome.  But even if Ross lands at 35 points, he’s still a great 4.9X value.  I also like Ross pitching against a young, but suspect, lineup in Philly.  Pitching against Hellickson does risk losing win points, but I’ll take the Nats lineup over the Phillies any day of the week.

Rick Porcello (7:10pm ET) gave up 4 earned runs against the Blue Jays stellar lineup in Toronto last Saturday.  However, he also struck out 7 over 6 innings and took the win.  In total Porcello piled up 39 points.  Rick’s outing wasn’t as impressive as Joe’s, but also at a $7,200 salary today you could be getting another bargain with a 5.4X value.  It’s worth taking another shot at Porcello today and use some salary savings on a HR hitter.

Edinson Volquez (10:05pm ET) had a great start to the season on Opening Night against the Mets.  Volquez pitched through 6 innings, gave up no earned runs, and fanned 5 for a win for a total of 45 points.  Edinson’s second outing wasn’t as great.  Against the Twins, Volquez only pitched 5 2/3 innings and gave up 2 runs in a no-decision.  However, he also struck out 10 in the Twins game so he still ended the game with 41 points.  So Volquez is developing a 40+ point trend.  His salary unfortunately climbed to $8,100, but that’s still a 5.3X value landing Edinson in the value top 25 for all starting pitchers.  The A’s have some good discipline hitters, but it’s worth going with Volquez again and paying for the 40 points.

Next: Value Hitters

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

When I look for value hitters, I typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides and understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  At the start of this season the values were all over the place.  There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  For today, anyone over a 4.5X value is now top 25.  So these picks are focusing on those players over the last week.

On Wednesday, Miguel Montero, C, (2:20pm ET) moved up the batting order to hit 6th.  He seems to feast off of of RHP’s and the coaching staff has taken notice.  Kyle Schwarber‘s injury was very unfortunately for the Cubs, but Montero is fitting in nicely so far and is taking advantage with significantly more time behind the plate, likely for the rest of the season.  If Montero is behind the plate again today, he’s worthy of a strong consideration at Catcher.  Over the last week, Miguel averaged 13.5 PPG.  Montero’s salary climbed $200 to $3,000 today placing him at a 4.5X value on a seven day average, which is top 25 among all hitters.  The Cubs face another RHP in Chad Bettis of the Rockies today, and it’s possible Montero could hit in the 6 spot again for the Cubs.

Aledmys Diaz, SS, (8:15pm ET) is yet another Cardinal with a hot hitting start the the season.  Over the last week Diaz has averaged a very good 14 PPG, which is fantastic for a shortstop.  Aledmys’ salary is still only at $2,800 giving you a high 5X value.  Diaz is by far the best value at the SS position.  If you’re looking for someone to get you 10-20 points and give you a few hundred bucks back to spend at 1B or OF, here’s the perfect option.

Thanks to FanDuel’s point system, hitters like Chris Carter, 1B, (7:05pm ET) matter.  FanDuel doesn’t give you negative points for outs or strikeouts.  Also, Home Runs are the biggest value at 12 points.  So a player hitting 1 HR a game is just as valuable as a player hitting 4 singles every game.  Even better, you also get a Run and RBI which is an additional 6 points.  So you’re really getting 18 points for each HR.  Therefore, Chris Carter is valuable in FanDuel, even though most people probably shy away from picking him due to his high strikeout ratio per at-bat.  Chris took a rest yesterday but should be back in the lineup against the Pirates tonight.  Carter averaged 12.6 PPG over the last week and his salary is $2,900.  So, Chris has a decent 4.3X seven day average value.  Carter is facing off against a lefty but,keep in mind, one big swing and he has 18 points on the board for $2,900.

Since Opening Day, the Brewers have had Domingo Santana (7:05pm ET), a young OF prospect, at the top of their lineup.  And since the start of the season Domingo has been quietly consistent, until Wednesday night.  Santana, with one on base and two outs, ripped a fastball from Trevor Rosenthal for a 2-run game winning home run.  Santana had 30 points on Wednesday and his salary increased $400 to $3,000.  Still a bargain.  Over the last week Domingo averaged 13.2 PPG.  Santana has a 4.5X seven day average value also landing him among the top 25 hitters. Domingo should lead off again tonight in Pittsburgh and he’s well worth a play in your lineup to free up cash for a more expensive Harper, Trout, and Bautista.

I’ve written about Jeremy Hazelbaker and Eugenio Suarez (OF, 3B) enough already this week, so I won’t get into each again today.  However, I can’t ignore them completely.  They’re facing off against each other at 8:15pm ET tonight and both have a 5X value, even after their salaries have increased significant due to their consistently great play.  Continue to ride their value while you can afford it.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft King MLB Picks analysis.  Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

Next: More MLB FanDuel Picks Here! See How They Compare!

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers!  Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!