DraftKings MLB Picks For April 15
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For April 15
There are fourteen games going on this evening, which gives us plenty of options to choose from. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Luis Severino, Joe Ross, and Tim Melville have never faced today’s opponents. Rich Hill and Cody Anderson have very limited experience against their current opponents. That isn’t saying that you shouldn’t use hitters against them. In fact, you may be better suited doing so. There is just no statistical evidence to support it.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Clayton Kershaw ($13,700): Yes, this is a lot to spend on a pitcher, but the stats back it up. Kershaw is holding the Giants to a miserable .167 average in 353 at bats with only three homers, 14 RBI, and a whopping 108 strikeouts. There is only one Giant that has hit Kershaw well. More on that later.
Zack Greinke ($10,000): The Padres have only hit .204 off of Greinke in 181 at bats with two homers and seven RBI. The have also struck out 44 times. That isn’t quite the strikeout potential of Kershaw, but Greinke is a lot cheaper and has a better chance at a win. The point differential likely wont support paying the extra $3,700 for Kershaw. There are really good hitters you can get for that price!
Honorable Mention:
Chris Sale ($12,200): Sale has dominated the Rays in his career so far. The current roster is hitting just .172 off of him in 64 at bats, but they have managed a pair of home runs off of him (one of those was from Mikie Mahtook, who is in the minors). The positive? How about a whopping 28 strikeouts in those 64 at bats. Add to that the fact that Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings are a combined 2-24 against Sale, and you can make a strong case for using him over Greinke. The win potential is strong here too.
Garrett Richards ($9,300): Richards has dominated the Twins, holding them to a .185 average in 65 at bats. They have smoked three homers off of him, but there is no colder team in the majors right now. The Twins are going the way of the 1988 Baltimore Orioles, stumbling to a 0-9 start. There is strong evidence pointing to 0-10. Richards doesn’t have the strikeout potential of the big four, but his chances for a win may be better.
Dark Horses:
Jimmy Nelson ($8,100): The Pirates are a good team, but Nelson has held them to a .238 average in 80 at bats. They have also not hit a homer off of Nelson, have only driven in six, and have a whopping 21 strikeouts. The stats are on Nelson’s side here. He also has a good shot at a win against Jeff Locke.
Edinson Volquez ($7,600): Volquez has dominated the current A’s lineup, holding them to a .167 average in 42 at bats with just four RBI. The down side is that the has just three strikeouts against this patient lineup. I love his chances for the win, but the low strikeout total caps his upside.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
R.A. Dickey has served up nine home runs and a whopping 43 RBI to Red Sox hitters in his career. Stack some Boston players! David Ortiz ($4,800) is 9-34(.265) with three homers and eight RBI off of Dickey. Hanley Ramirez ($4,400) is only eligible at first base now, but he has clobbered Dickey. Hanley is 10-33(.303) with three doubles, a triple, a homer, and seven driven in off of him. Xander Bogaerts ($4,000) is 11-30(.367) with four doubles, a homer, and seven driven in as well. You can also consider Dustin Pedroia ($4,200) , who is 12-46(.261) with a cycle and five RBI against Dickey.
It promises to be a slugfest in Boston tonight. Rick Porcello has been awful against the Jays, serving up nine homers in 195 at bats. Jose Bautista ($4,900) leads the charge. He is 13-28(.464) with five walks, three homers, and nine RBI against Porcello. Josh Donaldson ($5,000) has only homered once off of him in 23 at bats, but he does have six other hits. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,800) challenges Ortiz for the must-play slot at first base. Edwin is 10-29(.345) with four doubles, a homer, and six RBI against Porcello. Justin Smoak ($3,300) could pay big dividends if he is in the lineup. He is 7-16(.438) with three homers and nine RBI off Porcello.
Tommy Milone has struggled against the Angels, most notably against Yunel Escobar. Escobar ($3,300) is 4-8 with a double , a homer, and three RBI against Milone. Albert Pujols ($4,200) has also hit the lefty hard, going 9-22(.409) with two walks and seven doubles. Miraculously, he hasn’t driven anyone in. Also consider Mike Trout ($5,400). He is expensive and is only 5-21(.238) off of Milone, but he has made it count. He has three walks, three doubles, a home run, and three RBI.
Martin Perez hasn’t faced the Orioles a lot, but there is a trend developing here. the O’s are hitting .317 off of him in 60 at bats. Mark Trumbo ($4,100) is 4-9 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Perez. Manny Machado ($4,400) is 3-9 with a homer and three driven in. You can also consider J.J. Hardy ($2,600) to save money. Hardy is 3-6 with three RBI against Perez.
Call these ones ‘short stacks:’
Ian Kinsler ($3,800) is 7-22(.318) off of Dallas Keuchel with a homer and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,900) has the same stats in just nine at bats.
David Peralta ($3,300) is a great bargain since he is 4-8 with three walks, a double, and two solo homers against James Shields. Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600) is also 4-8 with a double, a homer, and three driven in against Shields.
Jonathan Lucroy ($3,300) is 10-24(.417) with five walks, a double, a homer, and seven driven in against Jeff Locke. Ryan Braun ($4,600) is 10-31(.323) with three doubles, a homer, and two driven in.
Next: More Notes For 4-15
The price for Buster Posey ($3,100) is very low because of his matchup, but he could be worth it. Posey is 18-79(.228) off of Kershaw, but he has homered twice and driven in seven. Posey is the only Giant hitter I would even consider tonight, and even that is a bit of a longshot. He is just as likely to go 0-4.
The only Twins players I would even think of today are Trevor Plouffe ($3,500) and Joe Mauer ($3,500). Plouffe only has two hits in seven at bats against Richards, but they are both home runs. Mauer is the only hot Twins hitter right now, and he is 3-10 with a pair of walks against Richards.
You may want to consider Andrew McCutchen ($4,500) against Jimmy Nelson. McCutchen is the only Pirate to have any success against the Brewers youngster, going 3-7 with four walks, two doubles, and a RBI.
Want to look smart in front of your friends? Take a chance on the Dodgers’ Enrique Hernandez ($2,700). Yes, he has hit Madison Bumgarner well. He is the only Dodger to do so. Hernandez is 7-13(.538) with three doubles and a solo homer off of the Giants ace. If you want to gamble a little, Justin Turner ($2,800) and Yasiel Puig ($4,000) don’t have good averages against MadBum, but they have both homered off of him twice.
Erick Aybar ($3,000) is 3-7 with a walk in his career against Wei-Yin Chen. All of those hits are extra base hits with one being a solo homer. He could be a little-used bargain that helps you afford an expensive pitcher.
Nathan Karns has racked up 22 strikeouts in 64 at bats against the Yankees, and Alex Rodriguez ($3,700) is the only one to hit a homer off of him. Karns ($7,500) is an interesting option that most wont use because he is at Yankee Stadium. If you want to gamble, he could pay off.
Marlon Byrd ($4,000) likes Bartolo Colon. Byrd is 6-14(.429) with two solo home runs off of the veteran.
Prince Fielder ($4,900) is 4-9 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Vance Worley. Also consider Ian Desmond ($4,000) who is only 3-14 against the Vanimal, but he has homered off of him twice.
Next: FanDuel Value Picks For April 15
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks!