FanDuel Economics: MLB Tuesday, April 19th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Tuesday April 19th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
We’re back to a full slate of 15 MLB games on Tuesday. The Brewers/Twins kick things off at 1:10pm ET, followed later by the Seattle in Cleveland at 6:10pm ET. All other games start beyond 7pm ET. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day, but here’s a brief look at the breakout of times so far:
- 1:10pm ET (All Day)
- 1:10pm ET (Early Only)
- Milwaukee at Minnesota 1:1opm ET
- Seattle at Cleveland 6:10pm ET
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups, as me on Twitter!
Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
I talked about Vincent Velasquez (7:05pm ET) last Thursday. I was so excited about his potential, I put him in every one of my lineups. Last Thursday was a great day! Against a dreadful hitting lineup in the Padres last week, Velasquez took the win in a complete game shutout with an impressive 16 K’s. In total, Vincent compiled 87 points…in one outing. To put that in more perspective, Rick Porcello has 85 total FanDuel points over two starts and he’s 13th among all starting pitchers in PPG so far this year. Velasquez is, obviously, the top PPG pitcher, at this point in the season, averaging an astounding 72 PPG. Vincent’s salary has only increased to $9,900 today, which seems incredibly cheap to me, giving Velasquez an in credibly high 8X value. If you’re worried 87 points is his ceiling, so far 57 points against the Mets would be his floor. Even at 57 points, he’s a 6.3X value which is still quite good. Velasquez has set his bar so high, he could disappoint tonight at home, against the Mets again. But he’s also still very much a great value option.
Mat Latos (8:10pm ET) has had up and down seasons over his career, but he typically lands at a 3-3.5 ERA with 180+ strikeouts. Currently Mat is off to a hot start; 2-0, ERA of 0.75, and 6K’s over to games. While Latos isn’t fanning a lot of hitters (6), he’s not giving up runs and the White Sox are hot so he’s also getting wins (12 points). Over the course of two starts, Mat averaged 37.5 PPG. At a $6,300 salary Latos has a 6X value tonight. Getting 30-40 points from the pitching lineup and only spending $6,300 is a great bargain. Mat is worth a pick to plug in some of the heavier hitters later in your lineup.
Jaime Garcia (8:15pm ET) isn’t exactly a cheap option at $9,100. However, Garcia had a similar night as Velasquez last Thursday getting the win with 13 K’s and earning 78 total points in one night at home against the Brewers. Before the Brewers game, Jaime did struggle a bit against the Braves giving up 4 runs over 6 innings, still striking out 6, not not getting the win and only 24 points. That being said, in total Garcia’s average PPG is 51. That gives us a value of 5.6X which is pretty solid. The only problem with Garcia is we know he has a high ceiling, but a much lower floor than Velasquez. Garcia is certainly worth a play in one of your lineups.
Next: Value Hitters
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
Entering the second half of his 30’s, Albert Pujols, 1B, (8:10pm ET) stats continue to decline each season. Pujols isn’t off to a great start this season either, currently hitting below .200 (.196). However, over the last week Albert has compiled 6 hits (1 per game), 1 2B, 2HRs, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs, 4 Walks, and even a stolen base. His seven-day average is 15 PPG, which is top 15 among all hitters. At a $3,300 salary tonight his value is a very high 4.7X. I’ve tried playing Pujols lately as I’ve noticed his starting to get hot, he only disappointed me Saturday against the Twins. Not a lot of FanDuel players will consider Albert because of his decline in career stats, but he’s getting hot and now is a good time to take advantage of his value.
J.J. Hardy, SS, (7:05pm ET) has been heating up lately. Hardy has 6+ FanDuel points per game over the last seven days and had a huge 2 HR game in Boston last Tuesday piling up 45 points. Over the last week, J.J.’s averaged 14 PPG. Hardy’s salary is $3,000 tonight giving us another 4.7X value to consider. Hardy is your best value option at the SS position tonight at home against the Blue Jays.
Another Oriole, Chris Davis, 1B, (7:05pm ET) has also been hitting very well. Davis has a high potential for home runs, and over the last week he’s hit 3. Chris also piles on RBIs, getting 8 over the last six games. Lately, Davis has also started walking more, 6 walks in his last six games. In total, Chris averaged 18.5 PPG, 6th among all hitters, over the last seven days. Davis isn’t cheap at $4,300 but he’s still giving you a great 4.3X value. I like Davis again tonight at home even facing a tough Marcus Stroman (RHP).
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!