MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 19
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
Tuesday’s games start off at 1:00PM EST with the Brewers/Twins and is followed up by a 6:10PM EST tilt between the Mariners and Indians but the main slate on FanDuel starts at 7:05PM EST with 13 games.
I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below compares the 5 day period April 12-16 and the winning GPP scores from a selection of GPP entries I have entered over the past week with a comparison to how Sunday, April 17th slate played out.
- Average Top GPP Finish Points Scored: 232 Points(5 day) – April 17(202)
- Average SP Salary: $8,000 (5 Day) – April 17 ($6,000)
- Hitter/Pitcher Percentage of Salary Spent: 23/77 (5 Day) – April 17: 17/83
- $ Value Per Point: $6.6 (5 Day) – April 17: 5.7
The Sunday GPP results snap us back into the trend we have seen over the last 10 days where a mid-tier starting pitcher, in this case Matt Moore, was found on the top tournament entries and the salary was spent to build a top end lineup. As you look to build your lineups – the target value continues to be just north of 6x value and the data suggests that in GPP lineups we should continue to target mid-tier starters.
Now on to the picks…
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitcher –
- Francisco Liriano ($9,500) – After reviewing the slate, I landed on Liriano as my top end starter for 2 reasons – 1) He is going up against San Diego at Petco Park and 2) He is similarly priced to Vincent Velasquez ($9,000).
I firmly believe Velasquez will be over owned after his first two incredible starts where he averaged 72 points per game. Listen, Velasquez has been electric and made a lot of us a profit in his last outing, but when playing large field tournaments, it is important to let the rest of the field chase the shiny new toy and look to differentiate yourself.
This is where Liriano stands out to me as he gets a start against the Padres who heading into Monday night had struck out the 2nd most of any team in MLB in the early season. Liriano is one of my favorite GPP targets as he has massive strikeout upside and he pitches for a team that is a strong favorite to win. You only have to look back at opening day where Liriano fanned 10 Cardinals and put up 60 FanDuel points in a win and Liriano flashes that same upside Tuesday night, which would exceed our target 6x value.
- Logan Verrett ($6,700) – Apparently I am all in opposing Velasquez on Tuesday and I will target Verrett, who will be making his second consecutive start in place of Jacob deGrom against the Phillies. I am looking for places where I can hit 6x value and you do not need to look far as in his last start Verrett put up 36 points in 6 strong innings with 6 strikeouts and a no decision. The Phillies lineup is one we should look to target and I expect Verrett to be very low owned due to the fact he is making a spot start and he is going up against Velasquez, but if he is able to match his output from last game and steal a win, we are looking at a guy who would surpass our value targets AND clearly differentiate ourselves in large field tournaments.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Hitters/Stacks
- Toronto Blue Jays Stack – Mike Wright takes the mound for the Orioles in Baltimore and is an immediate target for DFS purposes especially when the opposing lineup is the potent Blue Jays. In two career starts against Toronto, Wright has gone 0-2 lasting only 6 innings and giving up 7 earned runs.
I mentioned this yesterday but I love the value Michael Saunders ($2,900) presents as the newly minted leadoff man hitting atop the stacked Toronto lineup. By dropping down to a value Starting Pitcher like Verrett , a stack of the top Blue Jay bats including Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200), Josh Donaldson ($5,400) and Jose Bautista ($4,600) is easily doable and still allows you $2,800/per player to fill out the rest of your roster.
- Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600) – A potential pivot from Bautista to differentiate a Toronto stack, is to pivot to Stanton in a matchup against Stephen Strasburg. Gamers may avoid Stanton in this matchup but the Batter Versus Pitcher statistics tell us to do the opposite as Stanton is 13 for 32 (.406 average) with 9 XBH and 3 home runs in his career against the Nats righty.
The BvP matchup is ideal and if you opt to utilize the Toronto stack, you can pivot away from Bautista to include Stanton and swap in Troy Tulowitzki at SS for a mere $2,900.
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!