DraftKings Early MLB Picks For April 21
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For April 21
There are seven games going on tonight, which gives us plenty of options to choose from. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Taylor Jungmann has never faced the Twins before, so you wont see any Minnesota players on the list.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Clayton Kershaw ($13,600): Big surprise here. The best pitcher in the game has dominated the Braves. Who would have guessed? Atlanta has only hit .193 in 109 at bats against Kershaw with two homers and six RBI while striking out a staggering 41 times. Yeah, he is likely worth paying for this afternoon. And if you are trying to get sneaky by playing one of those players with the home runs (Kelly Johnson and Freddie Freeman), realize that they are a combined 5-24 against Kershaw.
Johnny Cueto ($10,100): Cueto has held the Diamondbacks to a .185 average in 81 at bats, but has only picked up 19 strikeouts, nine of those by Rickie Weeks. His price seems a little steep, but I do love his chances at a win if you don’t want to pay for Kershaw.
Honorable Mention:
Shelby Miller ($7,000): His early struggles are a concern, but past stats say that he handles the Giants well. They are hitting .181 in 83 at bats, but have only struck out 13 times. Still, those numbers are very similar to those of Cueto, and Miller is over $3,000 cheaper. You may have to make that sacrifice if you want to use Harper today. Oh, and don’t worry about those two homers off of Miller. They were by Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence. They are a combined 2-22 off of Miller. Stay away from all Giants on offense here.
David Price ($11,600): Honestly, Price is going to be hard for me to pay for today. He has held the Rays to a .215 average in 93 at bats, and has a nice 25 strikeouts. The concern is the 17 RBI in that small amount of at bats. I would rather scrounge up the extra $2,000 of Kershaw and the sure thing, of save a bit and go with Cueto.
Dark Horse:
Jered Weaver ($6,700): Not only is he facing John Danks who has given up ten runs in two starts, but Weaver is holding the White Sox to a .208 average in 125 at batch while pilling up 25 strikeouts. They only have two homers and seven RBI against Weaver. One player has two of those homers and five of the RBI. More on that later. Weaver could be a great cheap option today.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Is he seriously advocating a stack against Max Scherzer? Yes he is! Hear me out: The Marlins are hitting .258 off of Scherzer with six home runs in 159 at bats while striking out only 35 times. A few Marlins have hit him pretty well, starting with Martin Prado ($2,700). Prado is 9-19(.474) with two doubles, a homer, and two driven in. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,900) could be a steal. He has only one hit in four at bats, but that hit was a three run homer. Christian Yelich ($3,600) is 3-9 with a homer and two RBI. Dee Gordon ($4,100) is 8-26(.308) with a double, a homer, and two RBI. There is potential here.
Bryce Harper will be worth every penny of his $5,300 salary today. He is 8-26(.308) with three walks, a double, five home runs, and a staggering 10 RBI against Tom Koehler. Daniel Murphy ($4,500) is 8-32, but he does have four walks, a homer, and three RBI. Jayson Werth ($3,800) is 5-21, but he does have six walks, a pair of homers, and five RBI off Koehler. Ryan Zimmerman ($3,500) is only 6-20, but he also has a pair of homers and three RBI.
A whole slew of Indians have hit Nathan Karns well, but not necessarily hard. It still could be worth a stack though. Jason Kipnis ($4,400) is 4-6 with two doubles and a RBI. Yan Gomes ($3,600) is 2-3 with a double. Mike Napoli ($3,300) is perfect in three appearances with a walk, a single, a double, and a RBI to go with it.
Albert Pujols ($4,000) and Andrelton Simmons ($2,900) could be worth playing against John Danks. Pujols is 3-10 with a solo home run, and Simmons has a two run homer in three at bats. Before you think it is a good time to pay for Mike Trout, consider that Trout is 0-8 lifetime with four strikeouts against Danks.
Next: More Notes For 4-20
Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) is 5-14(.357) with two walks, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Jake Odorizzi. No other Red Sox players have really hit him well, but Bogaerts may be cheep enough to take a shot on.
Adam Lind ($4,200) is the only Mariner that has faced Cody Anderson, but he did very well off of him. Lind is 2-4 with a homer and three RBI off of the young righty.
Brett Lawrie ($3,400) is the only White Sox player to have any kind of success against Jered Weaver. He is only 4-14, but he has a double, two homers, and five RBI against the Angels veteran.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000) is 3-9 with a homer and two RBI off of Johnny Cueto. He is the only Arizona player I would even consider against Cueto. The rest of the team has struggled against him.
Here is an interesting short stack for you. Justin Turner ($3,200) is a perfect 3-3 with a double against Braves youngster Matt Wisler. Adrian Gonzalez ($3,900) did have only one hit in three at bats, but it was a two run homer.
Want to gamble a little? Rays catcher Curt Casali ($2,600) is 3-6 with two homers and three RBI against David Price. Play him if he is in the lineup. Also, Kevin Kiermaier ($2,500) could save you a load of money and produce nicely. He is 2-4 with a double and a solo home run off of Price.
Next: DraftKings NBA Picks For April 21
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for the NBA playoffs and FanDuel baseball!