FanDuel Economics: MLB Wednesday, April 20th Picks

Apr 19, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (center) is greeted by Nationals center fielder Michael Taylor (left) after Harper hit a grand slam during the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Wednesday, April 20th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Wednesday April 20th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

On Wednesday, we continue with a full slate of 15 MLB games. The Rockies kick things off early in Cincinnati against the Reds at 12:35pm ET. There are three more games, totaling four, starting off before 7pm ET. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day, but here’s a brief look at the breakout of times so far:

12:35pm ET (All Day)
12:35pm ET (Early Only)
7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.

Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Apr 15, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello pitches during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers (SP)

Yesterday I revisited Vincent Velasquez, who revisited the Mets, and was greatly disappointed. However, it was inevitable Velasquez had to ‘level off’ his stats this season. The Marlins have some great hitters, like the Mets, but I feel more confident with a Joe Ross (7:10pm ET) value play today at Pitcher. Ross averaged 47.5 PPG over his first two starts of the season. Joe’s salary tonight is only $7,500, so it hasn’t climbed much, leading to a 6.3X value, and top 5 among all staring pitchers. Ross had a great outing with the Marlins to start the season, but as we saw with Velasquez, hitters tend to figure pitchers out eventually. But, Joe has been consistent in both of his starts yielding almost identical results against the Phillies and Marlins, unlike Velasquez. Also, Marlins hitters average only .269 vs. Ross including only 7 hits, 1 RBI, and 4 K’s over 26 at-bats. Also, the Nats have a decent match-up on the other side of the inning likely leading to an additional 12 points (for the win). Joe Ross is a solid value play today.

Rick Porcello (7:10pm ET) has very similar stats to Ross, including a slightly less expensive salary at $7,400. Over his first two starts, Rick averaged 42.5 PPG leading to a 5.7X value, top 10 among all pitchers. Aside from Brad Miller and Desmond Jennings, Porcello has had great results against the Rays, so keep an eye on their lineup. The other risk is Porcello pitching against a very good Chris Archer. However, Archer has had a lot of struggles starting the season so the risk is minimized. If you don’t like Ross tonight, Porcello is a solid 2nd value option at pitcher, but with some risk.

We talked about Ian Kennedy (7:15pm ET) last Thursday and he nailed expectations. As discussed on Thursday, Kennedy has had up and down years, but when he has good years, they’ve been great. So far this year, he’s resembling one of the great years pitching for a very good Royals team this year. Over his first two starts, Ian averaged 52 PPG, 53 & 51 points between the two games. For some reason Kennedy’s salary is only $8,200 tonight yielding a 6.3X value, which is incredible considering his start to the year so far. Two things against Kennedy tonight are the Tigers, a mostly right-hitting team, have been hitting very well against RHP’s this year. Also, he’s facing off against a very good Jordan Zimmerman. So the 12 win points may be elusive. But it’s worth considering riding the wave of momentum Ian brings into this game.

Next: Value Hitters

Mar 27, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees catcher Brian McCann (34) drops the the ball as Minnesota Twins infielder Eduardo Nunez (9) slides in to home plate in the sixth inning of the spring training game at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.

Eduardo Nunez, SS, (8:10pm ET) has been quietly on a roll for the Twins. Since April 10th, in fact, Nunez has been on fire. Recently, over the last seven days, Eduardo averaged 17.2 PPG, many of those runs coming from hits and runs. I typically like to focus on the easy FanDuel points, the HRs, but Nunez is getting on base enough, consistently enough, that he’s becoming hard to ignore. Also, Eduardo’s salary is only $2,800 leading you to a fantastic 6.1X value. Nunez should strongly be considered tonight against Jimmy Nelson, in Milwaukee, who’s never faced the Twins before.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, (7:15pm ET) has been crushing the ball for the Tigers lately. Jarrod has 3 home runs over his last 4 games, not bad for a Catcher. Over the last week, Saltalamacchia averaged 16.2 PPG, also fantastic for a catcher stepping in for the majority of the Tigers games. Jarrod’s salary is $2,900 tonight landing him at a high 5.6X value. There are multiple $2,900 catcher options tonight and Saltalamacchia is the best value option of the bunch.

Delino DeShields Jr., OF, (8:05pm ET) has been on a hot streak lately. During his hot streak, he only hit one HR, but he’s compiling multiple hits each game as well as multiple runs and has extra-base potential. Over the last seven games, DeShields Jr. averaged 15.6 PPG. With a $3,500 salary Delino is a solid 4.5X value. That is a top 20 value among all hitters. DeShields Jr faces Fister in Texas tonight, but Fister has had an up and down start to the year, recently very down. Doug Fister‘s ERA so far this year is over 8, keeping the door wide open for multiple hits and runs from Delino. He would be a great pairing with some more expensive OF options,

Hopefully your value options allow you to play the unreal Bryce Harper, OF, (7:10pm) in your lineups today. He has been on fire and I’ve been benefiting from playing him every day. Also, his salary just dropped $100 from $6,000…after hitting a grand slam. Take advantage of his tear while you can!

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!