MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 20
MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 20
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
Wednesday has the potential to play across multiple games as we have 4 “early” games with the earliest kicking off at 12:35PM EST and another 10 games in the “main” slate at 7:05PM EST. With the early start and enough games to choose from in the early slate, this will be a fun DFS day as you can easily play early only/late only or play the all-day slate.
I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher Percentage | Hitter Percentage | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 228.5 | $ 7,900 | 23% | 77% | $ 3,388 | 6.53 |
| 5 Day | 234.2 | $ 7,378 | 21% | 79% | $ 3,453 | 6.69 |
| Previous Day | 243 | $ 7,600 | 22% | 78% | $ 3,425 | 6.94 |
The Monday GPP entries had Hector Santiago as their starting pitcher as he pitched a phenomenal game and was low owned as Noah Syndergaard was the chalk play. Looking across the various entries, I found that Syndergaard was the key piece in the winning cash/multiplier games but it was Santiago that allowed for the upside and differentiation in large field GPP’s.
It continues to be very interesting to me to see how the mid-range starters are the ones we need to hit on in order to win larger GPP’s and the trend of roster construction has been very consistent over both short and long term time frames.
This is one of the simplest tools to help DFS players better understand how to compete in their games of choice and it continues to be an effective way to expand your bankroll.
Now on to the picks…
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitcher –
Danny Salazar ($9,200) – With so many of the elite arms on the bump Wednesday, I am hopeful gamers will opt to pay up for the likes of Sale, Archer, Bumgarner or Greinke and it leaves Salazar under owned. In his first two starts of the season, Salazar has averaged 51.5 points per game which is on par with Chris Sale who is $2,800 more expensive. Salazar comes into the game as a home favorite and has put up 8 strikeouts per game which gives us the elite strikeout upside we are looking for from our FanDuel starting pitcher. From a slate perspective, I would look to target Salazar in the all-day format as the other elite arms will further saturate his ownership and give us the ability to roster a top end pitcher who can take down a GPP.
Ian Kennedy ($8,200) – There are three pitchers on Wednesday’s slate that are averaging over 50 ppg in the early season – Sale, Salazar and Kennedy. The Royals right hander has been absolutely fantastic in the early going putting up 6.3x value in his first two starts which is right in line with the value and price point that has delivered GPP wins to this point in the season. Kennedy has struck out 7 in both of his starts so far against Houston/Minnesota – two teams in the top 10 in K’s so far – but the matchup will get tougher against the Tigers on Wednesday. Because of the matchup, Kennedy is not a cash game consideration for me, but makes for the ideal GPP target.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Hitters/Stacks
New York Yankee Lefty Stack – Anytime the Yankees are at home against a mediocre right hander, the left handed bats become a great stack with the short porch in right field. Oakland sends right hander Kendall Graveman to the hill, a control pitcher without strikeout stuff so I am all over the Yankees big left handed bats on Wednesday. C – Brian McCann ($3,200), OF – Carlos Beltran ($3,400), Brett Gardner ($3,100) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,400) make for a high upside stack and with the reasonable price points you can easily fit in a top end arm as well. 1B – Mark Teixeira ($3,400) is another viable option however there is another stack I am looking to get exposure to so I want to leave 1B open so that I can roster…
Los Angeles Dodgers Lefty Stack – I was all over the lefty Dodger stack going up against Julio Teheran on Tuesday before he got bumped back a day so I will go back to the well as Julio has been getting absolutely worn out by left handed hitters over the last year to the tune of a .300+ average. 1B – Adrian Gonzalez ($3,200) is in a great spot to succeed in this matchup(4 for 12 in his career against Teheran with 1 home run) and you can easily fit in both 2B – Chase Utley ($2,700) and SS – Corey Seager ($3,400) to build a top end stack of the key left handed bats.
What I love about these options, is you can pull off a double stack with both lineups and still roster a top end starting pitcher.
Next: FanDuel Economics MLB Picks April 20
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!