FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 21st Picks

Apr 20, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) celebrates after hitting a home run in the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. Detroit won the game 3-2. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 21st Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Thursday, April 21st Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

MLB Thursday’s typically display a schedule of scaled down and earlier games. This Thursday, we have 26 of the 30 teams facing off over 13 games. Like last Thursday, roughly half of the games are scheduled between noon and 7pm ET. Today’s games start off with first pitch at 12:10pm ET. So get your lineups in early if you want to take advantage of the full slate of player options. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day, but here’s a brief look at the breakout of times so far:

12:10pm ET (All Day)
12:10pm ET (Early Only)
7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Apr 6, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Brandon Finnegan throws against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers (SP)

Unfortunately, Thursday’s pitcher lineup does not provide many value options. I had to really dig for this part of the column, but I found a few nuggets.

Brandon Finnegan (7:10pm ET) isn’t a sexy option for tonight. Finnegan is facing a great hitting Cubs lineup and Jake Arrieta is pitching the other side of each inning against Brandon. In fact, Arrieta is averaging 51 PPG, which is a very solid option for tonight. However, his salary is a very expensive $5,100 landing him at a 4.2X value (52nd among all SP’s) and sucking salary away from all of your hitting options. On the other hand, Finnegan is averaging 33.7 PPG and you’re only spending $6,200 on Brandon tonight. Finnegan is a 5.4X value, top 20 among all pitchers. Also, Brandon’s average is what he’s consistently been compiling each game, right around 30 points. So even tonight he’s a solid 30 point option and gives you plenty of spending money on a great hitting lineup. On last point, the Cubs hitters are .045 against Finnegan. Finnegan’s well worth a consideration for a big hitting lineup tonight.

Edinson Volquez (7:15pm ET), like the Royals over the past two years, has quietly had a great season. Volquez is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA, and 17 K’s over 17.2 innings. Edinson’s wins were against the Mets at home and in Oakland against the A’s. Volquez is averaging 38.7 PPG and his salary fell to $7,900 giving you a 4.9X value, top 25 among all starting pitchers. Edinson is a right-handed pitcher and the Tigers have a lineup which does fantastic against righties, but he’s been consistently good all year and is a great option to consider if you want to lock up around 40 points and still have big salary to spend on your hitters.

Jake Ordorizzi (1:35pm ET) had an up and down start to the season, mostly due to an outing against the once hot Orioles. Against the Orioles, in Baltimore, Jake gave up 4 earned over 6 innings and fanned 4. He ended the game with 18 FanDuel points. However, against the Blue Jays and White Sox, each at home, Ordorizzi compiled an average of 8 K’s per game, gave up a total of 1 earned run over both games, and got the win against Toronto but no-decision against the Chicago. Over the course of the season, Jake averaged 33.7 PPG, identical to Finnegan, but his salary is more pricey at $7,700. Ordorizzi’s salary actually dropped $200 giving you a value of 4.4X, a top 45 value among all starting pitchers.

Next: Value Hitters

Apr 15, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison (R) steals second base as Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Scooter Gennett (L) takes a late throw during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.

Josh Harrison, 2B, (9:10pm ET) has been on a roll and his salary climbed to $3,100 as a result. Harrison isn’t clobbering home runs, but he’s getting multiple hits, many multi-base hits, and is beginning to compile runs, RBI’s, walks, and stolen bases. So Harrison’s multiple point options is leading to a 13.5 PPG average and with his salary he’s a 4.4X value, which is top 20 among all hitters. Tonight, there are several top 20 hitters, especially Mets hitters, who are off or the night and Josh is one of the few options still left on the top 20 board.

Mitch Moreland, OF, (8:05pm ET) had a fantastic string of games lately. In a three game series with the Orioles and then the first game of the series against Houston, both great teams, Moreland averaged 17.25 PPG over those four games. In the past week, Mitch averaged 14.4 PPG, which is still very good. Moreland’s value is currently at 4.4X, which is top 20 among all hitters. While Mitch historically struggled against Doug Fister, Doug has been less than good lately and Moreland should be able to continue his trend on Thursday.

Salvador Perez, C, (7:15pm ET) has been on an absolute tear against the Tigers. Over the last week, Salvador has averaged 13.5 PPG. Perez’s salary climbed to $3,200 leading to a 4.2X value. Against the Tigers Salvador is averaging 33 PPG, which is tremendous for a Catcher against Tigers pitching over two straight days. Perez seems to go up and down in daily fantasy points, but Salvador is worth a risk at his current top 25 hitter value.

There’s a great stacking option tonight if you can afford it after using your value options. Jayson Werth (2), Ryan Zimmerman (2), and Bryce Harper (5) have a total of 9 home runs against Tom Koehler over 67 at-bats. There’s a pretty decent chance they each get a few hits, and potentially multiple HR’s, off Koehler tomorrow and they’re worth stacking. Daniel Murphy also has a pretty good average and a ‘tater’ off Koehler.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!