MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 21

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 21

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Thursday’s schedule is split very neatly into two separate DFS slates – a 7 game early slate that kicks off at 12:10PM EST and the main slate with an additional 6 games at 7:05PM EST. As such – I will break out the Early Slate from the Late Slate in my picks to help build the best rosters across the two slates.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

The Tuesday GPP winning entries were all spearheaded by a dominant outing by the day’s top end pitcher Stephen Strasburg but even with the composition of the rosters shifting to the top end pitcher, we saw the target scores and values remain consistent.

This is one of the simplest tools to help DFS players better understand how to compete in their games of choice and it continues to be an effective way to expand your bankroll.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Early Slate Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitcher – Early Slate

I am not going to waste your time writing up Clayton Kershaw going up against the Braves because frankly there are plenty of reasons to pay up and roster the best pitcher in baseball against one of the weakest offenses in baseball. However – ask yourself at $13,000, can we really expect Kershaw to hit our target value and flirt with an 85-90 point outing when his highest output over the last 30 starts as been 81?

Ricky Nolasco ($6,000) – If I am fading the top end arms, then I am looking for pitchers I believe can exceed the 6x value target and Nolasco is a great GPP pivot play that I believe can hit the mark here. Nolasco heads to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers who have been one of the teams most prone to strike out early in the season, averaging 9.14 strikeouts per game. Nolasco has pitched 7 innings in both starts this season, averaging 25.5 fantasy points per game in two no decisions. It is always dangerous to chase the win – but if we can grab a cheap win here and Nolasco can take advantage of the free swinging Brew Crew, we could see a great low owned pitcher hitting our value target for GPP’s.

Nathan Karns ($8,100) – I would expect gamers will either pay up for the top arms or drop down to the bargain basement, leaving Karns in an awkward spot that may lead to him being low owned. Karns has only been able to go 5 innings a game in his first two starts, racking up big pitch counts and forcing him to exit early, however in both games he was able to rack up the strikeouts – with 6 and 7 over the two outings. A matchup against the Indians, who strike out over 9 times per game, gives us the ability to target a high upside strikeout arm and considering Karns put up 45 points his last game out against the Yankees, could be a sneaky pivot away from the more popular plays and allow you to pay up for better bats.

Next: Top Early Slate Hitting Stacks

Hitters – Early Slate

Washington Nationals Stack against RHP Tom Koehler – If you are going to save money as starting pitcher, I want to take those savings and load up with Bryce Harper ($6,000)  and the Nationals bats against Koehler. Whether or not you believe in using BvP stats, you cannot argue with the career stats for Harper against Koehler – 8 for 26 with FIVE home runs.

Stacking Harper with Anthony Rendon ($3,000) and Michael Taylor ($2,500) gives us the ability to target the top end of the Nats lineup and still save money for a double stack with…

Mike Trout ($4,600)/Albert Pujols ($3,200) – In two starts this year, Lefty John Danks has given up 5 ER in both starts and right handed hitters are hitting .324 against him.

Again, with the savings we get at SP – we can build a star studed lineup with Bryce and Trout and differentiate ourselves from those who went pricey at SP and will not be able to afford these big bats.

Next: Main Slate Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitcher – Late Slate

Gerrit Cole ($9,700) – Cole has really struggled to start the season, averaging only 22 fantasy points per game which I expect will scare many gamers away, but with a matchup against the Padres on tap, I expect a big bounce back performance against San Diego. The Pads have struck out 9 times per game on the season and over the last 3 games that number has spiked to 11. At some point, the Pirates ace is going to snap back with a dominant outing and the matchup here is one I want exposure to on Thursday night as he has the ability to match the output of Jake Arrieta at a cheaper price point.

Rich Hill ($6,700) – Over their last 10 starts, Jake Arrieta has fanned 8 batters per game…Rich Hill has fanned 7.86. Considering the price is almost half of the cubs ace, I love the GPP pivot and upside that Hill has against the Yankees. The Yanks simply cannot buy a hit with runners on base lately, and Hill has already flashed 50+ point upside this season making the perfect large field GPP play.

Next: Top Late Game Hitting Stacks

Hitters – Late Slate

Blue Jays Stack against Chris Tillman – The Blue Jays will be a popular target on Thursday’s main slate, but with their stats against Tillman, they will be a key building block for my lineups in all formats. The current Blue Jays are batting .319 with 58 hits in 182 at bats and 13 home runs!!!

All the usual suspects are in play with Josh Donaldson ($5,100), Jose Bautista ($4,700), Troy Tulowitzki ($3,100) and Michael Saunders ($3,200) as my top stack.

Royals Stack versus Mike Pelfrey – The Royals always make for a nice under the radar stack and with “Big Pelf” on the mound, this is a great place to fill in around a Blue Jays stack.

In the early season, Left Handers are batting over .500 against Pelfrey who always has the ability for a complete blow up game and I want to get exposure to bats like Eric Hosmer ($3,300) and Lorenzo Cain ($3,800) who is 7 for 17 against Pelf in his career. Omar Infante ($2,500) makes for a nice cheap addition as he has tremendous career numbers against Pelfrey ( 17 for 41- .415 average).

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks For April 21

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!