FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 22nd Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Friday, April 22nd Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
We’re back to a full slate of games on Friday, 15 games all scheduled for Friday evening. Most of the games are the start to a new weekend series for each team. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day, but it looks like we only have one timing option so far. I would expect as the 7pm ET games start, there will be a late option which will open up as well:
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night games from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. Also, if you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Aaron Sanchez (7:07pm ET) continues to roll this season. I wrote about Sanchez on April 12th and he followed that discussion with a modest 30 points against the Yankees and a fantastic 51 points against the Red Sox. On the season so far, Aaron averages 41 PPG. Tonight, Sanchez’s salary is $6,700 landing his value at 6.1X, 6th among all starting pitchers. Aaron doesn’t have a long history pitching against the A’s, but in the 5 batter’s he’s faced, he’s only given up one single, to Billy Burns. One risk is that Sanchez is facing a tough Sonny Gray on the other side of the inning so the 12 points for the win is certainly unknown. But Sanchez has been able to compile 30-42 points without wins, so he’s a pretty solid bet, and great at this value.
Matt Moore (7:05pm ET) had a fantastic outing on the 17th against the White Sox getting the win and fanning 10, compiling 55 points. Moore keeps getting better as the season rolls on. Moore started the season with 24 points against the Blue Jays, 6 strikeouts helping him climb over 20. The Toronto game was followed by a 33 point solid game against the Indian where he struck out 5. Finally, Moore got the win against the White Sox and pulled his average PPG to 37.3. With a $7,600 salary tonight, Matt’s value is now 4.9X, a top 25 pitcher tonight and one of the top 3 value options of the night. Moore’s low ERA and high strikeout ratio is also very attractive for consistent points. In 54 AB’s pitching against the Yankees, he’s never given up a home run. If that continues tonight, he should pile on the points.
Another pitcher I’ve liked recently, and I’m coming back to tonight, is Jon Niese (9:40pm ET). Niese has been consistently good this year and has also, like Matt Moore, been getting better with each outing, which is expected from the good starting pitchers. Jon had a rough outing to start the season against the A’s, but still fanned 7 and landed 24 points, without the win. He followed the A’s game with a win, 5 K’s, and 36 points in Detroit, and another win at home against the Brewers including 3 K’s and no earned runs given up. In total, Jon is averaging 34 PPG and with a $7,100 salary tonight he’s a 4.8X value. That may not seem overwhelming, but it’s top 25 and one of the best value options for the night.
Next: Value Hitters
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
The Mets’ bats have been very hot lately and the top value hitters are crowded with New York Mets. So let’s take a look at a Mets Value Stack:
At the top of the value list, based on the average points over the last seven days, is Neil Walker, 2B, (7:35pm ET). Over the last week Walker averaged 18.5 PPG, and absolutely feasted on Phillies pitchers (23 PPG). Walker’s salary climbed to $3,300 tonight but he still has a 5.6X value over the last seven days, 1st among all hitters this past week. Tonight, Neil faces Bud Norris and the Braves. Walker averages .391 against Norris with a Home Run and 5 walks. In fact, he’s getting on base slightly more than every other at-bat against Bud. Walker is a great value option tonight!
Bryce Harper has been absolutely on fire lately. In fact, he’s the only hitter averaging more than 20 points per game over the last week, with one exception Yoenis Cespedes, OF, (7:35pm ET). Over the last 6 games, Cespedes has had double-digit points, exceeding 20 points four times, and 30 points twice. That’s quite a run. Yoenis is averaging 22 PPG over the last week, the most among all hitters. OK, that’s an unbelievable run! Unfortunately, Cespedes salary has climbed quickly to $4,600, but that’s $1,300 less than Bryce Harper, who’s averaging 21.4 PPG over the last week. So Yoenis has a 4.8X value which is fantastic considering his output. Against Bud Norris tonight, he’s very hard to resist.
Also hot in the Mets outfield is Curtis Granderson, OF (7:35pm ET). Over the last 5 games, Granderson had 4 double-digit point games with two above 20 points. Curtis is averaging 15 PPG (top 15) and his salary has only climbed to $3,200 which is a fantastic 4.7X, top 10 among all hitters. Granderson is getting on base with extra base hits (5 over the last 5 games), walks (3 over the last 5 games), and has averaged a run/game lately. Curtis has only faced Norris in 3 ABs, but got on base twice among those 3 ABs, a pretty good start.
Finally, if there’s a Met option above that you don’t love, maybe you only want one Met OF or prefer another infield potion, consider Lucas Duda who is also averaging 15.5 PPG. His salary climbed to a high $3,500, but his value is still a very high 4.4X and is also a fantastic stacking value option.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!