MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 22

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 22

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Friday’s schedule kicks off with a  full slate at 7:05PM EST, so unlike Thursday we will only have one slate to choose from in our games but we still get plenty of FanDuel action!

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Wednesday gave us multiple slates and although the average winning score stayed roughly in line with trends, the winning salary pitchers in the two tournaments I captured were wildly different as we had Drew Pomeranz ($6,200) and Madison Bumgarner ($10,800). The average price continues to creep up as the top end starting pitchers are beginning to separate themselves with elite performances however Pomeranz is a great example of how a low owned bargain starter can net you a big pay day and becomes a great strategy for multi entry GPP play!

This is one of the simplest tools to help DFS players better understand how to compete in their games of choice and it continues to be an effective way to expand your bankroll.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitcher

The top end of the starting pitching options on Friday night, including Felix Hernandez ($11,000) , Jon Lester ($10,600), Sonny Gray ($9,900) and Matt Harvey ($9,800), all make for solid cash game plays but frankly the prices are too high and I don’t see the 6x value being achievable at these price points so I am going to look to drop down to some mid-tier options across my GPP lineups.

Aaron Nola ($6,900) – I expect Aaron Sanchez at $6,700 to be wildly popular on Friday night due to his 41 point average through 3 starts and although there is certainly merit to riding his streak, Oakland is one of the hardest teams to strike out on the season which caps his upside in my opinion so I will look to pivot off him. Sorting through the pitching options on Friday night, specifically looking at arms with a high strikeout potential, Nola makes for a great pivot play off the top arms with a favorable matchup against the Brewers in Milwaukee who have been one of the most vulnerable strikeout teams on the season averaging 9.2 per game.

Nola meanwhile over his last 10 starts has struck out over 6 batters per game – a better per game average higher than the much higher priced stars like Harvey and Gray. Nola over 3 starts this season has averaged 7.6 K/game so the upside is clearly there for the young Phillies right hander, especially at this reduced price point. Nola is a road underdog however so he may be best used for tournament play only on a night where the high end arms may fail to reach value.

Jeff Samardzija ($8,400) – After signing with the Giants in the offseason, Samardzija gets his first home start of the season against the Marlins. Samardzija has tremendous success in his career against current Marlins hitters, holding them to a .211 average (16 for 76) with only 3 extra base hits and striking out a whopping 34% of the batters he faced.  The price point here sits at an awkward spot as well, a shade below the top end arms but well above the top value plays which may gives us the ability to lock in a pitcher who is favored to win at home at a reduced ownership percentage.

One potential pivot off the Giants righty at a similar price point is Adam Wainwright ($8,500) who gets the benefit of pitching at Petco Park against the Padres. I know Wainwright has struggled so far this season but the Padres have one of the highest strikeout totals of any team in the early going and the fact that the Cardinals are favored on the road are all positive signs. Wainwright has done nothing so far this season to warrant us trusting him and if you are only playing 1 or 2 entries than this is not the play for you….however if you are looking at multiple entries, trotting out the Cardinals ace when he will be low owned is a great way to differentiate yourself on this slate.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Top Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks against LHP Jon Niese – With a game in Coors between the Rockies and Dodgers I expect the D-Backs to go overlooked as a potential stack on Friday night in Arizona. Niese has pitched well thus far in Pittsburgh but he has historically struggled at Chase Field – over 4 starts to the tune of a 6.26 ERA. As a Mets fan, I have watched Niese enough to know hes capable of a complete meltdown game at any point and this is a matchup I will look to exploit. Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500) is an elite play any time you get a mid-level left hander on the mound and you can easily pair him with the other right handed bats at the top of the lineup in Wellington Castillo ($2,900) and Jean Segura ($3,300).

Dodgers/Rockies Stack – The beauty of saving money at starting pitcher is that you can easily afford to get exposure to the game with the highest projected team total on the night. The Dodgers will be throwing LHP Scott Kazmir who has been absolutely walloped his last 2 starts putting the right handed bats of the Rockies squarely in play specifically Nolan Arenado ($5,300) who has multi homerun upside in this game. The Rockies will be throwing RHP Jonathan Gray who is coming of an abdominal injury and has to face the stacked left handed lineup of the Dodgers. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,200) is the top end play but Joc Pederson ($3,800) is the player I will have my attention on as on Thursday he was slotted in the cleanup spot which if we get confirmation that will be the case again on Friday is one of my key building block plays on the night.

Next: DraftKings MLB Picks For April 22

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!