FanDuel Economics: MLB Saturday, April 23rd Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Saturday, April 23 Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
Saturday continues a full slate of MLB games and the second game of each weekend series. FanDuel may expand on these options throughout the day, but it looks like we only have one timing option so far. I would expect as the 1:05pm ET games start, there will be additional options as the day moves on:
- 1:05 ET (Early Only)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:10pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, an update and reminder. Given the split in game times, I have divided the value plays into ‘Early Value’ and ‘Late Value’ options. Also, the point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers - Early
Value Pitchers (SP) – Early
The early slated starting pitchers don’t scream value today, but as I was moving down the top pitchers value list, someone finally jumped out at me. J.A. Happ (1:07pm ET) is quietly having a rock solid start to the season for the Blue Jays. Happ is averaging over 6 innings every game, and hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings all season. Not only is Happy averaging 4 K’s a game, but he has 4 strikeouts in each of his 3 outings so far this year. Also, over his first 3 starts, he’s only given up 4 earned runs (1.89 ERA). Lastly, two of his three starts have been wins (12 points each win). So in total, Happ is averaging 35 points per game, very consistently. At an affordable $7,700 salary, you’re getting a 4.5X value. J.A. may not provide a lot of upside, but he’s a pretty sure bet for 30+ points and gives you plenty of salary to use on multiple hitters who do provide tons of upside.
Outside of of J.A. Happy, I’m not excited about any of the other value options at Pitcher for the early games, so let’s move on to the late games:
Next: Value Pitchers - Late
Value Pitchers (SP) – Late
After struggling, but still getting the win, to start the season against the D-Backs, John Lackey (7:10pm ET) continues to do well in the new Cubs rotation. For the season, Lacky is 3-0, over 3 games. John has a 3.68 ERA, but 6 of his 8 earned runs were given up against the D-Backs. Also, Lackey has fanned 22 over 19.2 innings, a great ratio. John’s last outing as in St. Louis against his former team where he was able to go 7 innings without an earned run and struck out 11. Lackey now has a 45.7 PPG average on the season and with his $9,300 salary he’s a 4.9X, top 25 among all starting pitchers, value. Tonight John faces off against the Reds. He may not have Arrieta’s no-hitter material, but Lackey should have a great encore.
Kris Medlen (7:15pm ET) may not seem like an attractive pick, but since moving from the bullpen into the Royals starting rotation he has been a consistently great starter and may have earned a permanent spot in the Champs starting rotation. Medlen is 1-0 on the season with 11K’s over 11.1 innings and a 2.38 ERA over two games. Kris has a 35 PPG average and with a very cheap $7,000 salary tonight Medlen has a 5X value. Kris faces a tough-hitting Orioles team at home tonight, but after pitching in Houston and Oakland he has been tested and passed with good grades. If you’re looking for a cheap pitcher to give you 35 points and leave plenty of money for a stellar hitting lineup, Medlen is one of your better options.
On the other side of the inning for Medlen is Vance Worley (7:15pm ET). If you’re looking to fade Kris and find more value, Worley could be a good option. Picking Vance does come with risk, however. Over his two starts, Worley has a 5.06 ERA (negative points). But, Worley also has a high strikeout ratio, 11 over 10.2 innings. Also, the Orioles have had a hot start. If the O’s are able to put an end to Medlen’s great start, Worley could pick up the win (12 points). On the season, Vance is averaging 25 PPG and has a crazy cheap $5,300 salary. So while there’s risk with this play, there could be great reward in getting 25-30 points from a pitcher who’s given you tremendous salary options for hitters. If you want to gamble on the pitching spot tonight, this is your play!
Next: Value Hitters - Early
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) – Early
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
Ian Desmond, OF (2:10pm ET) walked away from a lot of money, at least it looks that way now, and gambled on his season last year with the Nationals, and lost. This season Desmond moved from Shortstop with the Nats to the Outfield with the Rangers. He’s likely on a quest to re-build his value. He’s certainly doing that in FanDuel recently. Over the last week, Desmond averaged 15 PPG. Ian’s salary is $2,900 today, so his value is 5.2X and top 10 among all hitters. Desmond homered on Thursday and has the power and speed to really pile on fantasy points this year. Ian’s one of the best value options of all positions for the early games.
Brandon Guyer, OF, (1:05pm ET) is a hot hitter and it’s buying him time either in the outfield or as a DH, lately in the 2-spot of the lineup. Guyer’s average is .381, which is fantastic. But he’s also the league leader in hit-by-pitch (HBP), which is a random category, but another important thing to consider when you get points for walks. Over the last week Brandon averaged 13.8 PPG. On a $2,600 salary today, that’s a another fantastic 5.3X value to consider for your OF position. With Desmond and Guy, you’re getting 20-30 points only $5,500 which is cheaper than paying for Harper in one spot. And, this likely allows you to use Harper or Altuve, at 2B.
Brett Gardner, OF, (1:05pm ET) took a few days off this week with a stiff neck, but was back in the lineup on Friday night. Prior to the stiff neck, or maybe during it and before his rest, Gardner has been quite hot. Brett has a .300 average and a high 9 walks already on the season, which is exactly what the Yankees want in a lead-off hitter. Over the last week, 15 PPG, and with his salary remaining at a fairly cheap $3,200 he’s a 4.7X value which is top 25 among all hitters. Gardner also has power, which I’m always looking for (HR’s get you at least 18 points each). I’m surprised his salary remained at $3,200 today and I’d use him while he’s still a great value.
Next: Value Hitters - Late
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) – Late
Yasmany Tomas, OF, (8:10pm ET) has recently been given opportunities in the cleanup (4th) and 5th spot of the Diamondbacks lineup. In the cleanup spot on Sunday against the Padres and the 5th spot against the Giants on Thursday, Tomas hit 3 home runs over those two games, and all of his HR’s of the season so far. Yasmany’s average has also climbed to a respectable .288 and he knocked in 9 RBI’s and scored 9 Runs as well. Over the last week Tomas has an average of 15.9 PPG, 5th among all hitters. With tonight’s salary set at $3,500, Yasmany has a solid 4.5X value.
Jake Lamb, 3B, (8:10pm ET) is off to a fantastic start to the season for the Diamondbacks. With a .316 batting average, 7 runs, 2 HR’s, and 10 RBIs, Lamb is becoming a valuable piece in the D-backs lineup, hitting 2nd in-between Segura and Goldschmidt. Over the last week, Lamb compiled 102 FanDuel points, which is tied for 6th (Dexter Fowler) among all hitters. Jake averaged 14.6 PPG during that time span and his salary is only $3,100 tonight. So on a 4.7X value, you’re getting a top 15 hitter in Jake Lamb over the last week. I like Jake and Yasmany again tonight against Jon Niese in a ‘D-Backs Value Mini-Stack.’
With 8 hits in his last 6 games, Alcides Escobar, SS, (7:10pm ET) is on a roll. In 27 at-bats over 6 games, Escobar has been on base 10 times, so a little better than once every three at-bats. Also, Alcides has 4 RBI’s and 3 Runs in that time, along with 3 of his 4 steals on the season. Escobar is averaging 12 PPG over the last week and his salary is still a very cheap $2,500 tonight. So at a 4.8X value, Alcides is a top 15 value hitter option and the best value among all shortstops today. Escobar faces off against Vance Worley tonight, who has given up a lot of hits and walks so far this season, which is an additional reason to strongly consider Alcides while he seems to be getting on base often.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!