MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 23

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 23

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

With Saturday’s slate we get another “two slate” day with 6 early games kicking off at 1PM EST and another 9 games on the later slate starting at 7:10PM EST. On days like today, I will split my picks between both slates for those who want to maximize the amount of games they can participate in.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Thursday’s games were off the charts – not only did we get two separate slates but we got treated to a massive evening slate including a no hitter! The winning scores on Thursday across the multiple slates were significantly higher than the trend which was driven primarily by the late night slate which had huge pitching performances and a variety of big time offensive outbursts.

I imagine most would look back on this slate and expect to see Jake Arrieta and his 57 point no hitter at the top of the winning lineup however it was Rich Hill who put up the exact same 57 point performance with a dominant strikeout performance against the Yankees. If you read April 21 Picks and Pivots I called out the following –

“Over their last 10 starts, Jake Arrieta has fanned 8 batters per game…Rich Hill has fanned 7.86. Considering the price is almost half of the Cubs ace, I love the GPP pivot and upside that Hill has against the Yankees.”

The purpose of me revisiting this article is not to prove that I was right(but hey I am married and am so rarely right so this is fun) but seriously I am sure I could point to plenty of picks that didn’t pan out but the reason I bring this up is that we continue to find that the upside value starting pitchers provide is more often than not what is winning large field tournaments.

Look back at the early slate yesterday – the winning GPP pitcher was not Clayton Kershaw or Max Sherzer – it was Ricky Nolasco who put up 49 points (8x value). Again, it’s important to keep an eye on these trends when constructing your rosters as identifying the high upside bargain arms continues to manifest itself as the key GPP winning indicator.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Early Slate Picks

Early Slate

SP – Masahiro Tanaka ($9,500) – Frankly the early slate for pitching is a rough one to navigate but I like the upside that Tanaka brings to the table in a home matchup against Tampa Bay. Tanaka has racked up 6 strikeouts in each of his last two starts giving up no more than 2 ER in all 3 starts to start the season. Tanaka also has great career numbers against the Rays as in 3 career starts he is 2-0 with 18 K’s in 20 innings and a 2.70 ERA. Without the high upside bargain arms and with Corey Kluber struggling and in a rough matchup in Detroit, Tanaka is the clear cut number 1 choice on the early slate in my opinion.

Detroit Tigers Stack versus Corey Kluber – I expect the Blue Jays at home will be the chalk early game hitting stack going up against Chris Bassitt but digging further Bassitt has been a master of inducing ground balls early in the season to the tune of 55%(45% last year). Additionally, Bassitt is giving up less than 1 HR per 9 IP this season and looking back at last year he gave up only .53 HR/9 so his ability to limit the long ball and the fact that the Blue Jays typically mash lefties better leads me to strategically fade this stack and let others spend their budget here.

Instead – I will look towards the Tigers who have absolutely destroyed Kluber in his career to the tune of a .373 average and looking at the BvP stats for some of the key Tigers hitters we can see a nice stack develop against a struggling pitcher so far this season.

Miguel Cabrera ($3,900) has an absurd history against Kluber as he is 20 for 35 (.571 average) with 7 extra base hits and five home runs. Seriously, read that again…..I’ll wait…….

I know some folks discount BvP statistics but this history is overwhelming so Miggy is my core building block must play on the early slate. Additionally, Victor Martinez ($2,700) is 9 for 25 with 3 home runs and JD Martinez ($3,500) is 5 for 14 with 1 home run which makes for a great stacking opportunity on the early slate.

Next: Main Slate Pitching Options

Main Slate Pitching Matchups –

Hector Santiago ($8,100) – Santiago is back flashing the big time strikeout upside the he flashed in the first half of last season, putting up 20K’s over his first 20 innings including a 10 strikeout performance his last time on the bump. Santiago gets to face the Mariners on Saturday who have struggled so far this season against LHP to the tune of a .201 average, striking out in 23% of their plate appearances. I love the strikeout upside here for the Angels lefty and the fact he is favored at home checks off the boxes for a great GPP target on Saturday.

Steven Matz ($8,300) – After struggling in his opening start, Matz went virtually un-owned in his next start and responded with a dominant 9 strikeout 60 point FanDuel performance. The fact that Matz’s season ERA still sits over 7 may scare the casual gamer away and keep in mind this is a pitcher who has made a total of EIGHT career starts so the volatility is expected but the upside is immense. I expect Matz’s ownership to tick up slightly due to the matchup with the Braves but in larger field tournaments I expect he will still be under owned and I will happily go after a pitcher who put up 7x value last start out!

Next: Main Slate Hitting Stacks

Hitting Options Main Slate

Rockies/Dodgers Stack – With an over under of 11 to open, this game is a must for exposure if you intend to compete on the main slate with only 9 games in action. Both starters Kenta Maeda and Tyler Chatwood have been sharp in the early going so rather than an all-out stack on this game, it may be better to utilize only a few players spattered amongst your lineups so that you have exposure but also gives you protection in the event that Maeda specifically is able to continue his early season run.

Brewers Stack against Charlie Morton – Although Morton now is pitching for the Phillies, the Brewers are very familiar with Morton from his time in Pittsburgh and have faced him 14 times prior to this meeting with much success. Over 77 innings against Milwaukee in his career, Morton has given up 36 runs for a 4.17 ERA. Ryan Braun ($4,400) is the top target here as he is 8 for 23 with 4 extra base hits and 1 home run in his career. The top end of the Brewers lineup including Domingo Santana ($2,800), Scooter Gennett ($2,900) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3,000) allow a very cost effective stack and will still allow us flexibility to fit in one or two Coors bats on the evening.

Pirates Stack against Rubby De La Rosa – One under the radar stack if you plan to fade Coors is to lock in the Pirates bats against Rubby De La Rosa in Arizona. The Pirates get a favorable hitting boost in the Diamondback home park and De La Rosa has struggled to an ERA of 8+ in the early going. De La Rosa was obliterated last year against left handed bats to the tune of a .315 BA which puts Gregory Polanco ($3,500) squarely in play for me on Saturday night. A Pirates stack including John Jaso($2,700), who is batting .375 against LHP this year and Starling Marte($4,000) who is batting .351 with 2 home runs makes for a sneaky differentiation play and could pay off big time in Arizona.