FanDuel Economics: MLB Monday, April 25th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Monday April 23th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
With four teams taking the day off, there’s a shorter 13 game MLB schedule today. Monday is back to evening only games, with the first pitch occurring at 7:07pm ET in Toronto, with the Blue Jays facing off against the White Sox. I would expect as the evening games start, there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 7:07 ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Despite a cringe-worthy 4.66 ERA to start the season, Rick Porcello (7:10pm ET) has been piling on wins and strikeouts. Since the start to the season, Rick has given up 10 earned runs over 19.1 innings, in three starts. However, Porcello also has 3 wins in those three starts and compiled 24 K’s, leading to pretty solid, and sometimes great FanDuel point results. Year-to-Date, Rick is averaging 45.3 PPG. Probably because of his ERA, Porcello is still surprisingly very cheap at $7,400 tonight. So Porcello’s value tonight is a very high 6.1X, 5th among all starting pitchers so far this season. And tonight Rick is throwing against a struggling, and young, Braves lineup in Atlanta. This all adds up to really liking Porcello tonight as a pitching value option.
I keep coming back to Ian Kennedy (10:05pm ET) this season because he has consistently pitched well so far and is still fairly cheap. Ian’s last outing, at home against the Tigers, only landed at 34 points, but he still pitched very well and with more run support easily (he only gave up 2 runs) would’ve had 46 points. Through 3 starts, Kennedy has only given up 3 earned runs (1.35 ERA), averages 7 K’s per game (he has 7 in all three), and has a 2-1 record. Ian’s season is resembling some of his fantastic seasons in his past. To date, Kennedy is averaging 46 PPG and with a $8,200 salary tonight Ian has a 5.6X value. Kennedy faces a tough Angels lineup in LA tonight, but so far this season the lineups haven’t impacted his results. I would continue to play Kennedy as this fantastic trend continues.
As a Nats fan, I’ll always love watching Jordan Zimmermann (7:10pm ET) pitch. The Nats are having a great start to the season, but most fans will probably tell you we all miss watching him pitch in DC. Jordan isn’t piling up strikeouts, but that’s not what he typically does. What Zimmermann is great at is getting outs, not giving up runs, and winning. Over three starts, and 19.1 innings, Jordan hasn’t given up one earned run, has 15 K’s, and 3 wins. Zimmermann is averaging 46.3 PPG season-to-date, 8th among all starting pitchers. With a salary of $8,900 Jordan is still cheap and has a 5.2X value. I really like Zimmermann again tonight at home against the A’s.
Next: Value Hitters
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. For today, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
Welington Castillo, C, (9:40pm ET) isn’t having a stellar hitting season so far this year, yet. He’s only hitting .230 and only has 6 Runs and 7 RBI’s, total. However, Castillo hit 5 home runs over his last 5 games, including one yesterday. With 18 points per HR, Welinton is hard to ignore right now. Over the last seven days, Castillo is averaging an amazingly high 21 PPG. He’s tied with Curtis Granderson with 1st among all hitters. Welington’s salary is expensive for a catcher at $3,200 tonight, but that’s still an incredible 6.6X value, which is nearly impossible to find at this point in the season. Keep your eye on the lineup because Catchers get rest more than other positions, but if playing he’s a great consideration for tonight, at home against the Cardinals.
Speaking of Curtis Granderson, OF, (7:10pm ET) the Mets bats have been on fire lately and Granderson is leading the group. Over the last week, Granderson has 3 HR’s, 7 RBI’s, and 7 Runs. Add 4 walks and you can see why Granderson is tied for first among all hitters in PPG over the last seven days. Granderson isn’t cheap, however, at $3,800. So you’re not getting the same type of value as you are with Castillo. But a 5.5X value is still a great deal, regardless of the price. It’s worth considering to run with Granderson again tonight, at home, against the Reds.
I have to admit, Kevin Kiermaier, OF, (7:10pm ET) was not on my radar, at all, this year. Welcome to my radar Kevin! Kiermaier isn’t having a stellar year at a .250 average, but over the last week Kevin has been hot, so he snuck up onto the top value board for hitters. Over the last 5 games, Kiermaier had 4 double-digit point games, including one game over 20 points. What is really helping Kevin right now are extra base hits. Over the last 6 games, Kiermaier has 4 doubles and his only 2 home runs of the season. In total, Kevin averaged 14.4 PPG over the last week and with a $2,800 salary tonight, he has a 5.1X value. It’s worth considering Kiermaier for a value play in your OF tonight.
Finally, even though I just talked about Ian Desmond, OF, (8:00pm ET) for Saturday, he has been so hot over the past week (20.4 PPG) and is still so cheap, $3,300, at a 6.1X value, I felt I had to say something. I won’t go into detail since you can read the article, but I’m playing Desmond until his hot streak ends or he finally becomes too expensive.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!