FanDuel Economics: MLB Tuesday, April 26th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Tuesday April 26th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
We’re back to a full slate of games on the MLB schedule today, 15 in total. First pitch is in DC with a fantastic pitching match-up between Vince Velasquez and Max Scherzer at 7:05pm ET. I would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 7:05 ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Ricky Nolasco (8:10pm ET) isn’t a sexy pick, but he is a valuable one. Nolasco was likely to start in the bullpen for the Twins, but moved into the starting rotation when Tyler Duffey struggled in Spring Training. Also, Ricky just picked up his first win of the season 5 days ago. However, the Twins are likely very comfortable with Nolasco’s play so far this season. It’s doubtful he’ll leave the rotation anytime soon. Over 3 starts and 20.1 innings, Ricky is 1-0 giving up only 6 runs, an ERA of 2.66, and 15 strikeouts. Not bad for a fringe starter. Nolasco is averaging 33.3 PPG and has an incredibly cheap $6,300 salary tonight. At 5.3X, Ricky is the most valuable of all starting pitchers tonight. Getting 30-35 points and having several thousand more to spend on hitters really sets you up well for a good night. Nolasco is up against the Indians tonight.
I keep writing about Edinson Volquez (10:05pm ET) and if he keeps this up, I’ll continue to write about him all season. As long as he doesn’t get too expensive, of course. Over 4 starts, Edinson has been consistently solid; 45, 41, 30, and 48. The last outcome was a 48 point game against a very strong Tigers lineup. So Volquez averaged 41 PPG since the start of the season. With a $8,200 salary tonight Edinson has a 5X value, top 20 among all starting pitchers. Volquez does face a tough-hitting Angels lineup, but his competition hasn’t set him back much yet this year. I love Edinson’s value once again tonight.
Rich Hill (7:10pm ET) has been a mixed-bag this season. Over 4 starts, Hill is 2-2. That’s a good summary of his season so far. Rich has given up 20 hits over 19 innings, but also has 29 K’s over that time and somehow only given up 7 earned runs, with a 3.32 ERA. So there is clearly risk with Hill, but also great reward. In two of his starts, Rich struck out 10 batters and took the win in each. In total hill is averaging 36.8 PPG, and his salary just climbed $1,000 tonight, to $7,700, but he’s still a very solid 4.8X value. 30-40 points may not sound too enticing, but that’s a good deal for a pitcher. You’re getting a base of 30 points with plenty of cash to spend on big hitters. Also, in Rich’s last outing, he piled on 57 points, so he has a high ceiling as well. Hill is up against a difficult Tigers lineup, but they’ve struggled against lefties this year. Miguel Cabrera is Hill’s biggest problem. But with hitters like Salty and Martinez going 0-10 against Hill, there’s plenty of opportunity.
Vincent Velasquez (7:05pm ET) had a very rough outing last time out against the Mets, 19 points. But keep in mind, he’s still averaging 41 PPG. Velasquez salary fell to $7,800 putting him at a 5.3X value. He’s up against another tough, and hot, hitting lineup in the Nats tonight. So I’m not considering Velasquez a confident value play. But in a bind, Vincent is worth considering. He’s also worth risking considering his ridiculous ceiling so far this year (87 points).
Next: Value Hitters
Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
Chris Coghlan, 3B, (7:10pm ET) didn’t start the season well, hitting .192 for the year so far. However, now Chris is on quite a tear. Over the last four games, he’s hit 3 home runs, 6 RBI’s, 4 runs, and a walk. Over the last week, Coghlan is averaging 15 PPG, 27th among all hitters. With a very cheap $2,600 Chris is a 5.8X, 7th among all hitters. Coghlan’s run could be short-lived, but it’s worth considering a play tonight while he’s hot.
Logan Forsythe, 2B, (7:10pm ET) gain power and more consistent hitting last year and that seems to be carrying over into this year as well. Forsythe, who lead off last night for the Rays, is hitting .303 with 3 HR’s, 8 RBI’s, 12 Runs, and two stolen bases. Over the last week Logan averaged 19 PPG, tied for 7th with Dexter Fowler. Forsythe’s salary tonight is $3,700 leading to a very high 5.1X value, top 20 among all hitters. I like Logan tonight facing off against Jimenez and the Orioles.
Salvador Perez, C, (10:05pm ET) can be a hit or miss daily fantasy baseball play. As an example, over the last 5 games played, Perez had 36, 30, 0, 0, and 21 points. So there’s plenty of risk playing Perez. However, as you can see his ceiling is high. Over the last week, Salvador is averaging 17.4 PPG, 14th among all hitters. Perez’s salary dropped $100 tonight to $3,400 and lands at a 5.1X value. Salvador’s value is worth the risk tonight against Jered Weaver and the Angles.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!