MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 25

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 25

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Monday’s slate kicks off at 7:07PM EST with a full 13 game slate.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

The winning scores over Saturday and Sunday continue to be materially higher than the season long trend as we have seen the warmer weather bring higher scoring offensive games from around the league. Over Friday-Saturday-Sunday, the average winning GPP score was 270 so we are seeing the short term trend spike considerably. The one consistent analytic however is that the mid-tier pitchers continue to be the way to go as hurlers such as Tanner Roark, Jason Hammel & Hector Santiago are allowing us to get top end pitching while affording the top hitters that are needed to win large field tournaments.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction that any article you can find.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Pitchers

The top end of the starting pitcher slate is loaded on Monday and for cash games I love Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner but with prices at $11k and above, it will be tough to utilize these players and get the target 6-7x value.

Kevin Gausman ($6,500) – For large field tournaments, we need to take risks and targeting a pitcher coming off injury, making his first start of the season on the road against Chris Archer  certainly qualifies BUT there is a career pedigree with Gausman that gives him the ability to hit our 6-7x value target at a reduced ownership percentage.

Gausman has a career K/9of 8 striking out 21% of the batters he has faced. The Rays on the year have struck out over 28% of the time and are one of the most favorable matchups to opposing pitchers in that regard.

Gausman is a fly ball pitcher but he gets the benefit of pitching in Tampa Bay which is one of the more spacious parks in baseball. Do not forget Gausman was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball prior to his arm injuries so the pedigree remains and I love the high risk/high reward upside he gives us tonight in larger GPP’s.

The fact that his opponent, Chris Archer, has been getting pounded this season and The Orioles are capable of putting up significant run support makes Gausman my top GPP play tonight.

Next: Top Stacks/Hitters

Hitters/Stacks

Let’s start with this – there is a game in Colorado with the Rockies and Pirates so we will clearly want some exposure to this game. The Pirates are throwing lefty Jeff Locke, and with the platoon advantage one player I want to target is OF – Brandon Barnes ($3,400). Barnes hit leadoff on Saturday and as a result was very popular but took an 0-5 which may lead to depressed ownership today. At this price point, if Barnes is in the leadoff spot again – lock Barnes in as a foundational play and utilize mini Coors stacks with fellow right handed bat  Mark Reynolds ($3,300) which gives you Coors exposure at a reasonable price.

One mini stack that may go overlooked that I love is the left handed Mariner bats against RHP Doug Fister. So far on the year Fister has a miniscule K/9 rate under 5, striking out only 13.9% of batters and has given up a home run in each of his starts so far. I love targeting pitchers who pitch to contact and the Mariners have considerable pop from the left side of the plate. Robinson Cano ($3,700),  Kyle Seager ($3,000) and bargain option Seth Smith ($2,400) make for a great home run stack against Fister who has given up a .367 average so far on the year to LH hitters!