DraftKings MLB Picks For April 26
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For April 26
There is finally a full 15 game slate tonight, to that means a lot of stats to go through, and a lot of tough decisions to make. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Matt Wisler has never faced the Red Sox, so you wont find any of them on this list. Same with the Rangers. They have never faced Luis Severino. The only Nationals player that Vince Velasquez has faced is Stephen Drew (who is 0-3 off him), so no Nationals players will be on here either. That is not me saying that you shouldn’t play Bryce Harper. It just means that there is no history to support it.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Max Scherzer ($12,900): The Phillie offense is not a well oiled machine, and Scherzer has done well against them in his career. The current Phillies are only hitting .174 against Scherzer in 132 at bats with only two homers (by David Lough and Cameron Rupp, of all players), seven RBI, and 35 strikeouts. Kershaw may rack up more strikeouts, but I think Scherzer will have just as many points.
Carlos Martinez ($8,900): The Diamondbacks are struggling against Martinez so far, and Shelby Miller has had a rough start to the year for the Diamondbacks, which heightens his chance at a win. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .192 against Martinez in 52 at bats with no extra base hits and only two RBI while striking out 15. On paper, this looks like a really good game for Martinez.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Hendricks ($8,600): Hendricks has absolutely dominated the Brewers so far in his career. The are hitting just .156 off of him in 45 at bats with no extra base hits, no RBI, only one walk, and 11 strikeouts. He could perform well above his price for tonight.
Chris Sale ($12,000): This is a steep price to pay for someone playing the Blue Jays. Granted, only one player has hit him hard (more on that later), but still. Why Sale over Kershaw? The $1,800 price difference has some to do with it, but it is also the strikeouts. Kershaw has 20 in 70 at bats against the Marlins. Sale has fanned 20 of 74. Kershaw will likely have a few more points, but not enough to justify the price differential.
Dark Horses:
Gerritt Cole ($7,200): His cost is down because he is pitching at Coors Field, but he has dominated the Rockies to far in his young career. The Rockies are hitting just .121 off of Cole in 33 at bats with a solo homer (by Mark Reynolds) and eight strikeouts. I would tread a little more cautiously than normal with the Coors Field factor, but it isn’t enough to deter me from using him.
Shelby Miller ($6,500): If Miller can keep from dragging his knuckles on the mound, he may stay in a game long enough to actually pitch well. History is on his side against the Cardinals. His former teammates are hitting just .152 off of him in 46 at bats. They have only struck out eight times, but at this price, Miller could be a steal if he can stay in the game.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
You want to stack some White Sox against R.A. Dickey. Jose Abreu ($4,000) is 4-9 with three homers and five RBI against Dickey. Melky Cabrera ($3,200) is 6-18 with a triple, two homers, and four RBI against the veteran knuckleballer. Todd Frazier ($3,900) is 4-10 with two walks, two homers, and three RBI agianst Dickey. Even Jimmy Rollins ($3,300) could be worth using today. Rollins is 9-27 with two walks, four doubles, a triple, a homer, and four RBI against Dickey. Sta
Justin Turner ($3,200) is 5-9 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI off of Tom Koehler. Yasiel Puig ($4,200) only has one hit in five at bats, but it is a two run home run and he has walked twice. Chase Utley ($3,400) is 6-15(.400) with two doubles, a homer, and six RBI against Koehler.
Kendrys Morales ($3,500) is 8-14(.571) with three walks, a double, and a solo home run off of Jered Weaver. Salvador Perez ($3,800) only has one hit in four at bats, but it is a two run home run. Alex Gordon ($3,400), Eric Hosmer ($4,200) and Mike Moustakas ($4,100) don’t have good averages against Weaver, but they have all homered off of him in their careers.
Yes, I am advocating a short stack against Dallas Keuchel. Chris Iannetta ($2,900) is 5-16(.313) with four walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Keuchel. Seth Smith ($2,200) is only 4-12 against Keuchel, but he has a double, two homers, and four RBI. When he hits him, it’s hard. Leonys Martin ($2,400) has only gone 4-20, but he has driven in six runs! Look out for Nelson Cruz ($4,200). Cruz is 7-14 with three walks, a double, two homers, and four RBI against Keuchel.
Johnny Cueto may look like a good play against San Diego, but the stats say otherwise. Alexei Ramirez ($2,500) is 7-11(.636) with a double and a solo homer off of Cueto. Matt Kemp ($4,000) is 7-16(.438) with two walks, a double, and two solo home runs. Even Jon Jay ($2,400) has gotten in on the act. Jay is 12-29(.414) with two walks, a double, three home runs, and seven driven in against Cueto.
Jorge De La Rosa has done a good job of limiting damage against the Pirates, but they are still hitting .322 off of him. Andrew McCutchen ($5,300) is 6-19 with four walks, two doubles, a triple, and a RBI off De La Rosa. Jordy Mercer ($4,000) is 6-9 with a RBI. Starling Marte ($5,200) is 4-9 with three walks, a triple, and a RBI. How long before those start turning into home runs?
Adam Jones ($3,400) is 8-20 with a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Jake Odorizzi. Manny Machado ($4,600) has also hit Odorizzi hard, going 7-19(.368) with a walk, two homers, and five RBI off of him.
Next: More Notes For 4-26
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,400) has actually fared pretty well against Clayton Kershaw in his career. Stanton is 4-15 (.267) with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Kershaw. Stanton likely wont be heavily used, so this gamble could pay off.
Albert Pujols ($3,700) has been struggling lately, but he has always hit Edinson Volquez hard. Pujols is 4-10 with four walks, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Volquez. That accounts for all of the damage done to Volquez by the current roster.
Josh Donaldson ($4,600) has hit Chris Sale fairly well. Donaldson is only 3-11(.273) against him, but two of those hits are home runs, and he has an impressive six RBI. He comes at a bit of a discount tonight, and could be worth paying for tonight!
Yan Gomes ($3,400) has only faced Ricky Nolasco four times, but both of his hits are home runs, and he has driven in three. Jason Kipnis ($4,100) is 3-9 with two doubles and four RBI against Nolasco. They could be sneaky plays tonight.
Consider using Miguel Cabrera ($4,500) against Rich Hill tonight. Miggy has only faced Hill three times, but he has a single, a double, a homer, and two RBI against him.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,900) is 4-13(.308) with a cycle and two RBI against Jimmy Nelson. Which hit will he double up on first? Jorge Soler ($3,700) is 5-15 with three doubles, a homer, and three RBI off Nelson. There are a couple of Cubbies worth using!
Gregor Blanco ($2,800) could be a sneaky play. Blanco is 5-12(.417) off of James Shields with four RBI. Brandon Belt ($3,500) has four plate appearances against Shields. He has two walks, two triples, and a RBI. He may be worth using as well.
Next: FanDuel Economics For April 26
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for the NBA playoffs and FanDuel baseball!