MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 26

Apr 21, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price (24) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports /

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 26

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Tuesday’s slate kicks off at 7:05PM EST with a full 15 game slate.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period	Score	Pitcher Salary	Pitcher Percentage	Hitter Percentage	Hitter $/Player	Value
Season	238.1	$ 7,990	23%	77%	$ 3,376	6.80
5 Day	246.8	$ 8,355	24%	76%	$ 3,331	7.05

The last 5 days we have seen the scores spike materially as the weather warms up and lineups are piling on runs. The target score in large field GPP’s has jumped to 7x value as a result but we continue to see the $7000-$8000 range as our target SP salary level.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction that any article you can find.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

April 16, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) throws in the sixth inning against Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

Top Starting Pitchers

David Price ($9,400) – The top starting pitching option tonight is hands down Clayton Kershaw at home against the Marlins but at $13,000 it becomes cost prohibitive especially on a night where we can target bats in Coors Field. Dropping down to $9,400 we get the unique ability to target one of the elite pitchers in the game at a reduced price in a prime matchup against the struggling Braves offense. Price’s early season results have been all over the map in the early going with two games of 54 points, one game at 24 and his last outing where he only managed to put up 2 points. With Price’s volatility and struggle last game out, I expect gamers to shy away from Price and opt to pay up for either Max Scherzer (10,500) or Dallas Keuchel ($10,100). However looking at the ceiling for these 3 pitchers, neither Scherzer nor Keuchel have approached 54 points in an outing and Price has done it twice. Also if you exclude the last outing, Price is averaging 9K’s per game and being a heavy favorite he gives us the upside we want to target with our starting pitcher.

Johnny Cueto – ($9,300) – A potential pivot from Price at a similar price point is Johnny Cueto who gets a home matchup with the San Diego Padres who have been one of the teams most prone to strikeouts thus far in the season. Cueto is a heavy home favorite and has pitched at least 7 innings in all 4 starts this season which allows us to target a pitcher we can expect to go deep into the game and allow us to rack up additional points. Cueto has averaged a solid 38.5 points this far in the season with a high water mark of 52 points and with the matchup on tap has the ability to match/exceed the output from more expensive pitching options on the slate.

Kyle Hendricks ($7,300) – Looking in the 7k range Tuesday night, I love targeting the underrated Cubs right hander Hendricks who gets a home date with the Brewers. Hendricks is a completely different pitcher when he toes the rubber in Wrigley as he has a career ERA of 2.93 at home versus 4.06 on the road. He also gets to face one of the teams with the highest strikeout totals in the league as the Brewers strikeout in 26% of their at bats. Hendricks has averaged just over 5 K’s per game this season and at this price point if he can get even a slight uptick in his punch outs on Tuesday he has the ability to hit 6x value with a win.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Apr 22, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) hits a single against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

Top Hitters/Stacks

White Sox against R.A. Dickey – Any time Dickey is on the mound he makes for a great GPP target for opposing hitters as the unpredictability of the knuckleball can allow lineups to tee off when the pitch is not dancing like it needs to. The White Sox have a lineup that can make Dickey pay and the fact that this game is in Toronto gives us a huge ballpark boost to boot. Looking at some of the BvP statistics, we can see that a variety of the White Sox hitters have favorable career numbers against the former CY Young award winner:

Melky Cabrera ($3,300) – 6 for 18 with 2 home runs
Todd Frazier ($3,800) – 4 for 10 with 2 home runs.

Jose Abreu ($3,000) has seen his price drop and with first base so deep, I expect Abreu to go overlooked and give us the ability to roster a player with multi homerun upside at a reduced price point.

Yankees/Rangers Stack – With a healthy over/under of 9 this game may be overlooked with everyone looking towards Coors field but with some big time bats in a favorable hitting environment, this game makes for a great pivot off the more popular Rockies/Pirates.

The Rangers power bats get a favorable matchup against Luis Severino who has struggled early in his career with the home run ball especially this season has he has a 20% HR/FB ratio. Severino has also seen his strikeout rate drop 7% this season to 15% percent which means more balls being put into play and with the Rangers lineup as potent as it is, that could spell danger for the Yankees hurler. Nomar Mazara ($3,300), Mitch Moreland ($2,900) and Prince Fielder ($2,900) are all at reasonable price points and allow for a high stack to pair with a top end starting pitcher.

The Yankees meanwhile get a date with RHP AJ Griffin and have a healthy team projected total over 5 runs. Griffin is a fly ball pitcher that throws roughly 60% fastballs and with a lefty heavy lineup, the Yankee bats make for a great stack in Arlington. Brian McCann ($3,400), Mark Teixeira ($3,200), Brett Gardner ($3,200) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,100) make for a great top of the order stack.

Keep an eye on the weather in this one though as there are showers in the forecast but also strong projected winds which could aid the Yankees hitters even more against an extreme fly ball pitcher like Griffin.

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!