FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 28th Picks

FanDuel Economics: MLB Thursday, April 28th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Thursday, April 28th Picks edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

Before we go into the schedule and value options, a reminder of the updated FanDuel scoring which started yesterday, Wednesday, April 27th.  The following three changes were made:

• RBIs will now be worth 3.5 points
• Runs will now be worth 3.2 points

On the surface, these changes do not appear to be significant, but they are.  RBI’s and Runs used to be worth 3 points each.  With the added decimal to each, they’re now worth more than a walk or a single (3 points).  RBI’s are valued slightly higher than Runs.  So, that means Home Runs are now worth at least 0.5 more for a solo home run, and add on an additional half point for each RBI, within each HR.  So a slugger like Chris Carter just became more valuable than a single base hitter and run scorer like Dee Gordon.

Update Tuesday’s article: I previously assumed no negative points meant pitchers do not receive negative points for earned runs.  However, after tracking points on Wednesday, that does not appear to be the case.  So pitcher points are unchanged.  

Now, to the Thursday MLB Schedule.  This Thursday’s schedule unfortunately is scaled down significantly to only 8 games, just more than half of the games on a typical MLB day.  So our options are limited, but I still expect to find value across the lineups as well as expensive and exciting options you can afford.  I would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:

• 1:10pm ET (Early Only)
• 1:10pm ET (All Day)
• 7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today.  The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.  Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Value Pitchers (SP)

After his first three starts, Kenta Maeda (10:10pm ET) was having a fantastic season pitching in the 4th spot of the Dodgers rotation.  However, his fourth game would be in Coors Field so we expected his ERA to climb a little and see Kenta struggle in the high altitude, like most pitchers.  But, that didn’t happen.  Instead, Maeda surprised many by pitching a no-hitter through 6 innings, eventually giving up 3 hits in the 6th.  Kenta finished the game with a win, 3 hits, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts.  That’s a total of 55 points, 4 more than his last outing against the Giants.  In total, Maeda is 3-0 over 25.1 innings, he only gave up 5 walks, has 23 K’s, and a very low 0.36 ERA.  Kenta now averages 44.5 PPG this year, 9th among all starting pitchers.  Unfortunately, Maeda’s salary climbed from $7,800 to $9,100 for tonight, but that still leaves him at a 4.9X value for the year.  At this value, and following such a fantastic performance, Kenta is a rock solid pitcher value pick for tonight.

Tanner Roark (4:05pm ET) is having an up and down start to the year, resembling his career so far.  At times, Roark looks fantastic, other times he struggles.  After his last start, though, it’s hard not to consider Roark for another play.  In Roark’s last outing at home against the Twins, Tanner only gave up 2 hits, 3 walks, no earned runs, and had an amazing 15 strikeouts.  His outing lead to a very high 78 points, resembling Vincent Velasquez just a few weeks ago.  However, Tanner does have a low floor so there is risk with this play, landing at 12 points twice this year.  But in total, Roark is averaging 36.8 PPG.  Even though his salary climbed from $7,400 to $8,200 today, he’s still a 4.5X value, one of the best value options for pitchers today.

With each pitcher option, you should have plenty of salary left over for a few big hitter picks.  Now let’s take a look at the Value Hitter options:

Next: Value Hitters

Value Hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF)

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  At the start of this season the values were all over the place.  There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  Lately, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.

The young Maikel Franco, 3B, (4:05pm ET) can be overly aggressive at the plate, swinging over half of the time he sees a pitch.  But at 23 years old, he has some time to work on that aggression, calm down, and focus on each pitch as the game slows down for Franco.  That appears to be happening, at least in the short-term, over the last week.  Maikel belted 3 home runs over three games against the Brewers.  He’s now in DC and facing a much tougher Nats rotation.  But, he started the series with a double and RBI on Tuesday.  Over the last seven days, Franco averaged 18 PPG, tied for 7th among all hitters.  Maikel’s salary remains at $3,500 today so he’s a very high 5.1X for a slugger.  Franco faces Roark, who we like as a potential value pitcher but who’s also been up and down this year and demonstrates risk.  Franco may continue his run and would be a terrific value at $3,500 again today.

I don’t visit expensive sluggers in this article often, because they’re typically too expensive to consider a ‘value.’  Also, they’re often an obvious choice.  However, I can’t help but notice Rizzo’s value today.  Anthony Rizzo, 1B, (2:20pm ET) has been absolutely on fire lately.  Unlike Bryce Harper, who’s been valued between $5,600-$6,000 lately, Rizzo’s salary is $4,600 today.  At first glance, that may seem expensive and he’s certainly the most expensive option among all first basemen.  However, over the last seven days Anthony averaged 22 PPG, 2nd among all hitters.  Four of those games were greater than 25.5 points, and one exceeded 47 points.  At a 4.8X value, 25th among all hitters, Rizzo is well worth the money you’re laying on such an expensive option.  If you played your pitcher pick correctly and find some other cheaper options in hitting positions, you can afford him and he’s worth it.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers!  Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!