FanDuel Economics: MLB Wednesday, April 27th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Wednesday, April 27th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
Before we go into the schedule and value options, a BIG update to the FanDuel scoring kicks in today, Wednesday, April 27th. The following three changes will be made:
- RBIs will now be worth 3.5 points
- Runs will now be worth 3.2 points
- Elimination of negative points
On the surface, these changes do not appear to be significant, but they are. The only negative points in the previous scoring was -3 points for each earned run given up by the starting pitcher. Every pitcher’s scoring will increase significantly, especially those with a high ERA. Also, RBI’s and Runs used to be worth 3 points each. With the added decimal to each, they’re now worth more than a walk or a single (3 points). RBI’s are valued slightly higher than Runs. So, that means Home Runs are now worth at least 0.5 more for a solo home run, and add on an additional half point for each RBI, within each HR. So a slugger like Chris Carter just became more valuable than a single base hitter and run scorer like Dee Gordon.
Now to the games. The MLB schedule continues on Wednesday with a full slate of 15 games. Only one game, the Padres playing the Giants in San Francisco, starts in the afternoon (3:45pm ET). So the vast majority of the games start in the evening. I would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 3:45pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results from the night before. Also, the point analysis does not account for the changes to FanDuel scoring starting on April 27th. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers - Low Risk
Value Pitchers (SP) – Low Risk
Steven Wright (7:10pm ET) had an abrupt end to his season last year after getting a serious concussion. Wright was expected to be out of the rotation, but with Eduardo Rodriguez starting the season on the DL, there was a rotation spot open during spring training. Wright had a very good spring and earned the 5th spot on the rotation. Since starting the season, the Red Sox are likely happy with that decision. While Steven has a 1-2 record, his ERA is only 1.40 ERA over 19.1 innings and has 17 strikeouts. Over his three starts, Wright had either 5 or 6 strikeouts each game. Year-to-date, Steven is averaging 37.3 PPG, top 30 among starting pitchers. Wright’s salary tonight is only $6,900, your cheapest option of the top 30 and a 5.4X value. With more run support, Wright should get more wins pitching the way he has consistently pitched so far. Fortunately for Wright, the Red Sox’s bats seem to be coming alive and they’re playing the Braves tonight at home. Wright should be a fantastic value option tonight.
Josh Tomlin (8:10pm ET) is another late rotation starter who’s starting the season hot. Over 2 starts and 11.2 innings, Tomlin has a 1.54 ERA and 10 strikeouts. In those two starts, Josh faced a tough Tigers and Mets lineup. Year-to-Date Tomlin is averaging 41.5 PPG, 13th among all starting pitchers. Josh is an expensive $8,700 salary tonight, but that’s still a top 25 4.7X value. Also, Tomlin is facing a rocky Twins lineup tonight. Tomlin is a good value if you’re willing to spend more but do not want to pay for the top pitchers.
Next: Value Pitchers - High Risk
Value Pitchers (SP) – High Risk
Jon Gray (8:40pm ET), the third overall pick in the 2013 amateur draft out of the University of Oklahoma, is a young bright spot in a struggling Rockies rotation. Unfortunately for Gray, he has to pitch in Colorado, where pitcher ERA’s skyrocket. Jon only has one start so far this year, so in terms of developing a trend, he’s just getting started. Also, in Gray’s first start, he gave up 5 earned runs over 5 innings in a no decision. However, in those 5 innings he struck out 10 Angels, leading to 30 points. That’s not bad for a basement bargain of a $5,000 salary. Jon is taking his 6X value to the mound again tonight in Colorado against the Pirates. Clearly he’s a risky play, but also has a high ceiling for only $5,000.
Nick Tropeano (10:05pm ET) continues to have a solid season, hopefully he gets more run support from the Angels hitters soon. Over 3 starts and 16 innings, Nick is 3-0, has an ERA of 1.69, and struck out 14. Tropeano is averaging 31 PPG. Nick’s salary remains cheap at $5,800 tonight, 5.3X value, keeping him within the top 15 in value among all starting pitchers. Up against a tough Royals lineup at home, playing Tropeano does have risk, but for under $6,000 you have a pitcher with a ceiling of at least 45 points.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.4X value is now top 25.
Leading off for the Blue Jays, Michael Saunders, OF, (7:07pm ET) has had a fantastic start to the season. Saunders has hit a .345 average, 2 home runs, 11 runs, and 6 RBI’s. Michael hasn’t picked up any steals yet, but that’s still a great start for a lead-off hitter. Over the last week, Saunders has been especially hot, averaging 18.8 PPG and 7th among all hitters. Michael’s salary tonight is $3,400 leading to an incredible 5.5X value, also 7th among all hitters. I love Saunders’ value tonight against Quintana and the White Sox tonight in Toronto.
I’ve talked about Ian Desmond, OF, (8:05pm ET) twice since Saturday. I try not to talk about the same player too often, but Desmond is making that difficult, as is FanDuel. Over the last week, Desmond now averages 16.7 PPG, not including his 17+ point effort from last night so it may now be higher. For some reason, FanDuel lowered his salary to $3,100 today. Take advantage of that! That brings Ian’s value up to a very high 5.4X, which makes him the highest valued outfielder aside from Saunders. Desmond is on fire and it’s worth sticking it out with him against the Yankees in Texas again tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
Chris Owings, 2B (9:40pm ET) is a young (24) prospect for the Diamondbacks and is better known for his great defense than hitting. However, the D-backs lineup has been getting hot lately and Chris is catching some of that fire as well. Over the last week, Owings is averaging 13.7 PPG. That’s pretty decent, but when you also consider his very cheap $2,400 you’re getting a very high 5.7X value. Chris may not keep this up, but he’s definitely worth a play at the 2B lineup position tonight at home against the Cardinals.
Chris Carter, 1B, (8:05pm) has been hot this season and he’s not just leaning on home runs for once. Carter is hitting a .295 average, has 5 HR’s, 11 Runs, 15 RBI’s, and 8 walks. Chris is tied with Kris Bryant as 20th among all hitters averaging 16.5 PPG over the last week. So with Carter, you’re getting a 4.9X value, also 20th among all hitters, which is a fantastic value for a slugger. Even with Jake Arrieta pitching tonight, I like Carter in Chicago against the Cubs as a fantastic slugger value option.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!