DraftKings MLB Picks For April 29
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For April 29
There are14 games in the night tournament tonight, to that means a lot of stats to go through, and a lot of tough decisions to make. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Sean Manaea is making his major league debut against the struggling Astros, but as we saw with Jose Berrios earlier this week, minor league success doesn’t always translate directly to the majors. He is a risk, no matter what the minor league numbers say. Michael Fulmer will also make his major league debut against the Twins. There is a lot of potential there since the Twins aren’t exactly setting the world on fire.
Steven Matz has never faced the Giants, but at least we have some major league experience on his part to go off of. Atlanta rookie Aaron Blair is also making his first appearance against the Cubs. Cesar Vargas has never faced the Dodgers. Corey Kluber has limited stats against the Phillies, but I wouldn’t rule out using him. There are just no stats to back it up. Adam Conley has limited history against the Brewers as well.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Felix Hernandez ($10,100): This is a fairly steep price, but Felix has done a really good job of limiting the damage against the Royals. They are hitting .256 off of him in 156 at bats, but they only onave one home run and 18 RBI. They have only struck out 36 times, but Felix has limited the damage done. That is about all you can ask for in the top tier tonight, and he still has better strikeout potential than Fiers or Rodon.
Aaron Sanchez ($7,100): Sanchez has dominated the Rays so far in his career. They are only hitting .180 off of him in 61 at bats with a homer and two RBI with 16 strikeouts. The guy who hit the homer, Corey Dickerson, is on the DL. This could be a great game for Sanchez, though some risk is involved since he was beaten up his last time out. He is likely worth the risk here.
Honorable Mention:
Carlos Rodon ($7,700): Rodon was brilliant in his one start against the Orioles last year. The only mistake he made was letting Jonathan Schoop take him deep for a solo shot. He only allowed two runs through six innings with striking out nine. He only allowed three hits. The Orioles are hot right now, but Rodon has the track record to back him up.
Mike Fiers ($7,800): Yes, Fiers has been nothing short of terrible this year, but this is based on past stats, and in the past, he has dominated Oakland. The A’s are hitting only .188 off of him in 64 at bats, but they have slugged five home runs. The good news is that they are all solo shots, and the injured Danny Valencia has two of them. Fiers has also racked up 16 strikeouts in that span. He is a risk, but the stats sure do make this tempting.
Dark Horses:
Jake Peavy ($7,500): Peavy wont be highly owned against Steven Matz and the Mets, but Peavy has held his own against them in his career. The Mets are only hitting .207 off of Peavy in 116 at bats with five homers, 14 RBI, and 27 strikeouts. Despite the five home runs, no Met has hit Peavy well. Not well enough to warrant spending the money and taking the risk.
Robbie Ray ($6,500): Yes, he is playing the Rockies, but they are in Phoenix, not Denver. And Ray has handled the Rockies fairly well. If you take out Charlie Blackmon‘s 5-8 off of Ray, the Rockies are only hitting .194 in 36 at bats with a homer and three RBI. Even Nolan Arenado is 0-7 off of Ray. He has also struck out ten in those 36 at bats. There is sleeper potential here.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Mike Trout ($5,400) is the most expensive hitter, but he will be worth it against Colby Lewis. Lewis may as well be throwing him batting practice. Trout is 12-30(.400) with four walks, a double, two triples, four home runs, and an impressive 11 RBI off of Lewis. Albert Pujols ($4,300) is 9-26(.346) with two walks, a double, three homers, and seven RBI in his career against Lewis. Kole Calhoun ($4,100) is 11-28(.393) with two doubles, a triple, a homer, and five RBI off of Lewis. It could be a very good night for Angels hitters.
The Nationals are hitting .299 off of Mike Leake in 97 at bats with 5 homers and 13 RBI. Bryce Harper ($5,200) is only 2-7, but he has a homer and two RBI. Daniel Murphy ($4,100) is only 4-18(.222), but he has a double, a homer, and three RBI. Jayson Werth ($3,600) has done some serious damage. He is 7-19(.368) with four walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400) is 4-15(.267) with four walks and a solo homer off of Leake. If you are looking to get really brave, Stephen Drew ($2,600) is 4-6 with a double and three RBI off Leake. By contrast, Danny Espinosa is only 3-16(.188) off Leake, but he does have a home run. Don’t be surprised if Drew gets the start.
You know, I thought about touting Masahiro Tanaka tonight against the Red Sox, but I decided that stacking was probably a better idea. David Ortiz ($4,200) is 4-15(.267) with three walks, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Tanaka. Dustin Pedroia ($3,900) is 5-13(.385) with two doubles. Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) is 5-19(.263) with a double, a homer and three RBI. Travis Shaw ($3,200) and Hanley Ramirez ($3,600) are only 1-5 off of Tanaka, but those hits are both two run homers. There is potential here.
Next: More Notes For 4-27
Matt Adams ($2,500) is 3-6 off of Stephen Strasburg with two doubles and a solo home run. He could be a nice cheap option tonight. Jedd Gyorko ($2,500) is 3-9 against Strasburg with a double, a homer, and two RBI. There is potential here for very little risk.
Josh Donaldson ($4,900) is 6-11(.545) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Drew Smyly. Michael Saunders ($3,500) is 2-3 with a double, a homer, and two RBI off of Smyly. The stats don’t support using Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista though.
Miguel Cabrera ($4,300) is a must-use player tonight. He is 17-38(.447) with a walk, five doubles, five home runs, and an eye-popping 13 RBI off of Phil Hughes. Nick Castellanos ($3,200) is 5-13(.385) with a walk, two doubles, and three RBI against Hughes. Victor Martinez ($3,700) is 10-34(.294) with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Hughes is a good one to stack against tonight.
If Brandon Phillips ($3,000) is able to return to the lineup, he is a solid play against Francisco Liriano. Phillips is 11-36(.306) with a walk, a double, and four RBI against Liriano. Eugenio Suarez ($3,800) could be worth a look as well. He is 3-9 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against the veteran lefty.
Watch out for Rougned Odor ($3,900) against Hector Santiago. Odor is 9-19(.474) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Santiago. Adrian Beltre ($4,600) has also hit him well, going 8-31(.258) with six walks, three doubles, and three solo home runs off of Santiago.
Matt Kemp ($4,500) is 4-6 with a solo home run off of Alex Wood. He is likely worth the price tonight.
Kendrys Morales ($3,000) could reward those of you that elect to go cheap tonight. He is 14-50(.280) with four walks four doubles, a homer, and eight RBI against Felix Hernandez. Another under the radar guy against the King could be Alcides Escobar ($2,700). Escobar is 6-16(.375) with three RBI off Hernandez.
Carlos Gonzalez could be a great value at just $2,900. He is 2-6 with a homer and two driven in off of Robbie Ray.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play an FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for the NBA playoffs and FanDuel baseball!