
FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 29thĀ Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is theĀ MLB Friday,Ā April 29th Picks edition. Ā FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
Weāre back to a full slate of 15 games on the MLB schedule Friday. Ā The day starts off with the struggling Braves meeting Jon Lester and the Chicago Cubs at 2:20pm ET. Ā No other games are played early, and the next start begins with 3 games at 7:05pm ET. Ā IĀ would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but hereās what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 2:20pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
BeforeĀ we dive into the MLB value picks for today. Ā The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results from the night before. Ā However, the salary analysis is as of today. Ā If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me,Ā Matt Rogers. Ā Now, letās take a look at todayās MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers

Value Pitchers (SP)
Tyler ChatwoodĀ (9:40pm ET) is a sneaky great value play tonight. Ā Yes, Chatwood had a bad outing against the Dodgers on April 23rd, only compiling 15 points. Ā Tyler also had a terrible day against the Giants on the 12th, only landing 9 points. Ā However, there is one thingĀ in common with each of those days, he was pitching at home in Colorado. Ā How has Chatwood done outside of Coors Field? Ā Heās averaging 45.5 PPG when pitching in an opponents stadium. Ā So as we continue, keep in mind that Tyler is pitching in Arizona tonight, where he already started the season with a win and 37 points. Ā Over the season, Chatwood has averaged a modest 28.8 PPG. Ā Tonight, TylerĀ has an incredibly cheap $4,900 salary for a pitcher. Ā At this salary and with his PPG for the season, Tyler is a 5.9X value, 8th among all starting pitchers. Ā And when you consider his away PPG, so far this year, his value sky-rockets to 9.3X. Ā That is an incredible opportunity. Ā So in Chatwood, you have an opportunity to obtain a pitcher getting you 30-40 points on a $4,900 salary giving you enough cash to pick several top hitting options across the board. Ā This is one of the ultimate pitching value situations of the season.
With a 1-2 record to start the season, Drew SmylyĀ (7:10pm ET) is pitching much better than his record. Ā Arguably, with more run support Smyly shouldĀ be 3-1. Ā Drew has a 2.51 ERA, has only given up 5 walks, and 33 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. Ā Thatās a fantastic ratio. Ā Smyly is averaging 43.2 PPG so far this year. Ā Only on of his four games has been below 48 points, his opening starting against the Blue Jays (20 points). Ā Drewās salary tonight is $8,700, so heās a 5X value. Ā So for $8,700 youāre getting a guy whoās almost a lock to get over 40 points. Ā However, there is some risk. Ā Smyly is pitching against Toronto at home, again tonight. Ā So he gets a chance to redeem his 20 point start, but this is also the only team who was able to get to Drew so far this season. Ā Still, itās hard to pass up the value.
Next: Value Hitters - Infield

Value HittersĀ ā Infield
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. Ā This ratio provides an understanding of how many points youāre getting for what you paid. Ā Itās important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Ā At the start of this season the values were all over the place. Ā There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Ā Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Ā Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, (7:10pm ET) caught fire over a week ago and then exploded on Wednesday, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and 50.9 points in total. Ā If you follow baseball, you know who Dustin Pedroia is so I wonāt go into too much detail about his season or career. Ā But over the last week, Dustin 21.8 PPG, 2nd among all hitters. Ā Pedroiaās salary is a pricey $3,800, but that still puts him at a very fantastic 5.7X value. Ā Dustin is up against Tanaka tonight, but heās on fire and is well worth $3,800.
Aledmys Diaz, SS, (8:15pm ET) is have an incredible start to the season, especially in the 8th spot of the Cardinals lineup. Ā Lately, the Cards have a robust set of hitters, but Iād have to imagine heāll climb the lineup soon. Ā On the season, Diaz is hitting .468 with 18 runs, 4 HRās, 13 RBIās, and a stolen base. Ā Over the last week, Aledmys is averaging 18.8 PPG, 8th among all hitters. Ā Diaz has a $3,500 salary tonight and he has a 5.4X, 14th among all hitters in the last week. Ā Aledmys does face a very tough challenge at home tonight against Strasburg, but few have stopped him so far this season.
Next: Value Hitters - Outfield

Value Hitters ā Outfield
Danny Santana (8:10pm ET) only played 3 games this past week, coming back from a hamstring injury. Ā But I like what I see so far and recommend using Santana while you can still get him this cheap. Ā Since coming back from his hamstring injury, Danny was able to jump right into mid-season form. Ā In the past week, 3 games in total, Santana had 7 hits in 13 at-bats. Ā Two of those hits were doubles. Ā Danny also had 3 runs and an RBI. Ā Each game heās play heās almost doubled his point total from the game before. Ā Over those 3 games, Santana is averaging 15.2 PPG. Ā Dannyās salary is still only $2,600, but itās starting to climb (from $2,200). Ā So Santanaās value tonight is 5.8X, a top 5 value among all outfielders. Ā I like Santanaās value tonight against the Tigers at home tonight.
Jayson HeywardĀ (2:20pm ET) was feasting off of the Reds but has struggled in two games with the Brewers. Ā But we should still talk about his week. Ā Over the last week Heyward averaged 18.6 PPG, among all outfielders. Ā Jaysonās salary has seemed to level off around $3,500 for a good part of the season. Ā So his hot streak his leveraged his value to 5.3X, 5th among all outfields. Ā Heyward now goes home to Chicago for an afternoon match up against the struggling Braves. Ā Jayson is a great value option for early or all day OF plays.
One last thought. Ā I have talked about Ian Desmond (8:05pm ET)Ā enough to not go into great detail again tonight. Ā But Iāve noticed Desmondās salary seems to be leveling off around $3,100. Ā So heās still an incredible value again tonight at 6.1X, with a seven-day trend. Ā Ian has had a few 0-3 games here and there, but then also has 20-40 point games as well. Ā Heās worth taking a risk at this price.
To re-visitĀ other recentĀ value options for FanDuel MLB,Ā view some of myĀ other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tullochās MLB Picks & PivotsĀ column. Ā Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB PicksĀ analysis. Ā DraftĀ KingĀ uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Ā Both also provide great āstackingā options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Ā Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!