FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday April 29th Picks
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 29th Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Friday, April 29th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
We’re back to a full slate of 15 games on the MLB schedule Friday. The day starts off with the struggling Braves meeting Jon Lester and the Chicago Cubs at 2:20pm ET. No other games are played early, and the next start begins with 3 games at 7:05pm ET. I would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 2:20pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today. If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Tyler Chatwood (9:40pm ET) is a sneaky great value play tonight. Yes, Chatwood had a bad outing against the Dodgers on April 23rd, only compiling 15 points. Tyler also had a terrible day against the Giants on the 12th, only landing 9 points. However, there is one thing in common with each of those days, he was pitching at home in Colorado. How has Chatwood done outside of Coors Field? He’s averaging 45.5 PPG when pitching in an opponents stadium. So as we continue, keep in mind that Tyler is pitching in Arizona tonight, where he already started the season with a win and 37 points. Over the season, Chatwood has averaged a modest 28.8 PPG. Tonight, Tyler has an incredibly cheap $4,900 salary for a pitcher. At this salary and with his PPG for the season, Tyler is a 5.9X value, 8th among all starting pitchers. And when you consider his away PPG, so far this year, his value sky-rockets to 9.3X. That is an incredible opportunity. So in Chatwood, you have an opportunity to obtain a pitcher getting you 30-40 points on a $4,900 salary giving you enough cash to pick several top hitting options across the board. This is one of the ultimate pitching value situations of the season.
With a 1-2 record to start the season, Drew Smyly (7:10pm ET) is pitching much better than his record. Arguably, with more run support Smyly should be 3-1. Drew has a 2.51 ERA, has only given up 5 walks, and 33 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. That’s a fantastic ratio. Smyly is averaging 43.2 PPG so far this year. Only on of his four games has been below 48 points, his opening starting against the Blue Jays (20 points). Drew’s salary tonight is $8,700, so he’s a 5X value. So for $8,700 you’re getting a guy who’s almost a lock to get over 40 points. However, there is some risk. Smyly is pitching against Toronto at home, again tonight. So he gets a chance to redeem his 20 point start, but this is also the only team who was able to get to Drew so far this season. Still, it’s hard to pass up the value.
Next: Value Hitters - Infield
Value Hitters – Infield
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, (7:10pm ET) caught fire over a week ago and then exploded on Wednesday, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and 50.9 points in total. If you follow baseball, you know who Dustin Pedroia is so I won’t go into too much detail about his season or career. But over the last week, Dustin 21.8 PPG, 2nd among all hitters. Pedroia’s salary is a pricey $3,800, but that still puts him at a very fantastic 5.7X value. Dustin is up against Tanaka tonight, but he’s on fire and is well worth $3,800.
Aledmys Diaz, SS, (8:15pm ET) is have an incredible start to the season, especially in the 8th spot of the Cardinals lineup. Lately, the Cards have a robust set of hitters, but I’d have to imagine he’ll climb the lineup soon. On the season, Diaz is hitting .468 with 18 runs, 4 HR’s, 13 RBI’s, and a stolen base. Over the last week, Aledmys is averaging 18.8 PPG, 8th among all hitters. Diaz has a $3,500 salary tonight and he has a 5.4X, 14th among all hitters in the last week. Aledmys does face a very tough challenge at home tonight against Strasburg, but few have stopped him so far this season.
Next: Value Hitters - Outfield
Value Hitters – Outfield
Danny Santana (8:10pm ET) only played 3 games this past week, coming back from a hamstring injury. But I like what I see so far and recommend using Santana while you can still get him this cheap. Since coming back from his hamstring injury, Danny was able to jump right into mid-season form. In the past week, 3 games in total, Santana had 7 hits in 13 at-bats. Two of those hits were doubles. Danny also had 3 runs and an RBI. Each game he’s play he’s almost doubled his point total from the game before. Over those 3 games, Santana is averaging 15.2 PPG. Danny’s salary is still only $2,600, but it’s starting to climb (from $2,200). So Santana’s value tonight is 5.8X, a top 5 value among all outfielders. I like Santana’s value tonight against the Tigers at home tonight.
Jayson Heyward (2:20pm ET) was feasting off of the Reds but has struggled in two games with the Brewers. But we should still talk about his week. Over the last week Heyward averaged 18.6 PPG, among all outfielders. Jayson’s salary has seemed to level off around $3,500 for a good part of the season. So his hot streak his leveraged his value to 5.3X, 5th among all outfields. Heyward now goes home to Chicago for an afternoon match up against the struggling Braves. Jayson is a great value option for early or all day OF plays.
One last thought. I have talked about Ian Desmond (8:05pm ET) enough to not go into great detail again tonight. But I’ve noticed Desmond’s salary seems to be leveling off around $3,100. So he’s still an incredible value again tonight at 6.1X, with a seven-day trend. Ian has had a few 0-3 games here and there, but then also has 20-40 point games as well. He’s worth taking a risk at this price.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!