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FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday April 29th Picks

Apr 27, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Brock Holt (12) signals after catching a fly ball against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 27, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Brock Holt (12) signals after catching a fly ball against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 27, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) fouls a ball off during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 27, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) fouls a ball off during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel Economics: MLB Friday, April 29thĀ Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is theĀ MLB Friday,Ā April 29th Picks edition. Ā FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

We’re back to a full slate of 15 games on the MLB schedule Friday. Ā The day starts off with the struggling Braves meeting Jon Lester and the Chicago Cubs at 2:20pm ET. Ā No other games are played early, and the next start begins with 3 games at 7:05pm ET. Ā IĀ would expect there will be additional options as the day moves on, but here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:

  • 2:20pm ET (All Day)
  • 7:05pm ET (Main)

BeforeĀ we dive into the MLB value picks for today. Ā The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results from the night before. Ā However, the salary analysis is as of today. Ā If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me,Ā Matt Rogers. Ā Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

Apr 6, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood (32) throws during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 6, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood (32) throws during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Value Pitchers (SP)

Tyler ChatwoodĀ (9:40pm ET) is a sneaky great value play tonight. Ā Yes, Chatwood had a bad outing against the Dodgers on April 23rd, only compiling 15 points. Ā Tyler also had a terrible day against the Giants on the 12th, only landing 9 points. Ā However, there is one thingĀ in common with each of those days, he was pitching at home in Colorado. Ā How has Chatwood done outside of Coors Field? Ā He’s averaging 45.5 PPG when pitching in an opponents stadium. Ā So as we continue, keep in mind that Tyler is pitching in Arizona tonight, where he already started the season with a win and 37 points. Ā Over the season, Chatwood has averaged a modest 28.8 PPG. Ā Tonight, TylerĀ has an incredibly cheap $4,900 salary for a pitcher. Ā At this salary and with his PPG for the season, Tyler is a 5.9X value, 8th among all starting pitchers. Ā And when you consider his away PPG, so far this year, his value sky-rockets to 9.3X. Ā That is an incredible opportunity. Ā So in Chatwood, you have an opportunity to obtain a pitcher getting you 30-40 points on a $4,900 salary giving you enough cash to pick several top hitting options across the board. Ā This is one of the ultimate pitching value situations of the season.

With a 1-2 record to start the season, Drew SmylyĀ (7:10pm ET) is pitching much better than his record. Ā Arguably, with more run support Smyly shouldĀ be 3-1. Ā Drew has a 2.51 ERA, has only given up 5 walks, and 33 strikeouts over 28.2 innings. Ā That’s a fantastic ratio. Ā Smyly is averaging 43.2 PPG so far this year. Ā Only on of his four games has been below 48 points, his opening starting against the Blue Jays (20 points). Ā Drew’s salary tonight is $8,700, so he’s a 5X value. Ā So for $8,700 you’re getting a guy who’s almost a lock to get over 40 points. Ā However, there is some risk. Ā Smyly is pitching against Toronto at home, again tonight. Ā So he gets a chance to redeem his 20 point start, but this is also the only team who was able to get to Drew so far this season. Ā Still, it’s hard to pass up the value.

Next: Value Hitters - Infield

Apr 27, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (15) hits a grand slam against Atlanta Braves pitcher Bud Norris (not pictured) during the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 27, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (15) hits a grand slam against Atlanta Braves pitcher Bud Norris (not pictured) during the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Value Hitters – Infield

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. Ā This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. Ā It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. Ā At the start of this season the values were all over the place. Ā There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Ā Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Ā Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, (7:10pm ET) caught fire over a week ago and then exploded on Wednesday, 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, and 50.9 points in total. Ā If you follow baseball, you know who Dustin Pedroia is so I won’t go into too much detail about his season or career. Ā But over the last week, Dustin 21.8 PPG, 2nd among all hitters. Ā Pedroia’s salary is a pricey $3,800, but that still puts him at a very fantastic 5.7X value. Ā Dustin is up against Tanaka tonight, but he’s on fire and is well worth $3,800.

Aledmys Diaz, SS, (8:15pm ET) is have an incredible start to the season, especially in the 8th spot of the Cardinals lineup. Ā Lately, the Cards have a robust set of hitters, but I’d have to imagine he’ll climb the lineup soon. Ā On the season, Diaz is hitting .468 with 18 runs, 4 HR’s, 13 RBI’s, and a stolen base. Ā Over the last week, Aledmys is averaging 18.8 PPG, 8th among all hitters. Ā Diaz has a $3,500 salary tonight and he has a 5.4X, 14th among all hitters in the last week. Ā Aledmys does face a very tough challenge at home tonight against Strasburg, but few have stopped him so far this season.

Next: Value Hitters - Outfield

Mar 23, 2016; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Danny Santana (39) high fives teammates as he scores during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at CenturyLink Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 23, 2016; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Danny Santana (39) high fives teammates as he scores during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at CenturyLink Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Value Hitters – Outfield

Danny Santana (8:10pm ET) only played 3 games this past week, coming back from a hamstring injury. Ā But I like what I see so far and recommend using Santana while you can still get him this cheap. Ā Since coming back from his hamstring injury, Danny was able to jump right into mid-season form. Ā In the past week, 3 games in total, Santana had 7 hits in 13 at-bats. Ā Two of those hits were doubles. Ā Danny also had 3 runs and an RBI. Ā Each game he’s play he’s almost doubled his point total from the game before. Ā Over those 3 games, Santana is averaging 15.2 PPG. Ā Danny’s salary is still only $2,600, but it’s starting to climb (from $2,200). Ā So Santana’s value tonight is 5.8X, a top 5 value among all outfielders. Ā I like Santana’s value tonight against the Tigers at home tonight.

Jayson HeywardĀ (2:20pm ET) was feasting off of the Reds but has struggled in two games with the Brewers. Ā But we should still talk about his week. Ā Over the last week Heyward averaged 18.6 PPG, among all outfielders. Ā Jayson’s salary has seemed to level off around $3,500 for a good part of the season. Ā So his hot streak his leveraged his value to 5.3X, 5th among all outfields. Ā Heyward now goes home to Chicago for an afternoon match up against the struggling Braves. Ā Jayson is a great value option for early or all day OF plays.

One last thought. Ā I have talked about Ian Desmond (8:05pm ET)Ā enough to not go into great detail again tonight. Ā But I’ve noticed Desmond’s salary seems to be leveling off around $3,100. Ā So he’s still an incredible value again tonight at 6.1X, with a seven-day trend. Ā Ian has had a few 0-3 games here and there, but then also has 20-40 point games as well. Ā He’s worth taking a risk at this price.

To re-visitĀ other recentĀ value options for FanDuel MLB,Ā view some of myĀ other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & PivotsĀ column. Ā Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB PicksĀ analysis. Ā DraftĀ KingĀ uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Ā Both also provide great ā€˜stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Ā Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!