MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 29

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks April 29

Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Friday’s games kick off at 2:20PM EST with a game in Chicago but the main slate will begin with 14 games at 7:05PM EST.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Wednesday Night saw two Red Sox at the top of the leaderboards with SP – Steven Wright putting up 54 points which was good for 7.8x value at his $6,900 price point and 2B Dustin Pedroia who put up a massive 50.9 points. Remember we have the new point system with increased totals for RBI’s and Runs and not surprisingly we saw the point total beat the previous day’s trends.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Top Starting Pitchers

Steven Matz ($8,500) – The red hot New York Mets get a home date with the SF Giants and Steven Matz takes the mound after putting up 54.5 points over his last two games which at this price point would be good for 6.4x value.  Matz’s season average continues to be dragged down by a brutal -13 point opening day start against Miami so gamers looking at averages may overlook the dominance Matz has displayed in his last two starts where he has struck out 17 batters in 13.1 innings.  The Giants do not strike out often, in fact they only have struck out in 15% of their at bats, however against left handed pitchers they see that percentage increase to 19%. Matz sits at a great price point and has the stuff to deliver a high strikeout game while delivering a win for one of the hottest teams in baseball. Matz is my #1 SP target on the night.

Michael Fulmer ($6,300)/  Sean Manaea ($6,100) – Friday night we will see two of the top pitching prospects called up to make starts, and although there is obvious risks, both players make for great GPP tournament fliers. Fulmer was the key piece the Tigers got from the Mets in the Yoenis Cespedes trade last year. Fulmer is a hard throwing right hander who struck out over a batter an inning and gets a favorable matchup against the Twins who are one of the highest strikeout teams so far this season.

Manaea, Oakland’s prized pitching prospect will get a home start against the struggling Astros who have the most strikeouts of any team in MLB so far this year.  Manaea has been stellar at Triple A so far this season with a 21/4 K/BB ratio and gets to face Houston who has struck out in 26.4% of at bats versus opposing left handers on the season.

The reality with both of these picks is that we frankly have no idea what to expect for these prospects getting called but we can target two high upside arms with strong strikeout potential who will get overlooked by the casual gamers who may not have heard of them(yet). There is a ton of risk here as we can certainly understand nerves causing an escalated pitch count and possibly an innings/pitch limit but that risk of being too amped up also plays into the narrative of piling up strikeouts. I love both these players for large field GPP entries on Friday night.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Hitters/Top Stacks

Tigers stack versus Phil Hughes – So far this year Hughes has cut his HR/9 in half, limiting opposing hitters to only 2 homeruns so far this year. However here come the Tigers and more specifically Miguel Cabrera ($3,700) who has astronomical BvP numbers against Hughes as he is 17 for 38 (.447 avg) with 10 extra base hits and 5 home runs in his career. I would also target J.D. Martinez ($3,200) who has moved up to the #2 spot in the lineup and responded with 41.4 and 12.2 points over his last two games.

Angels versus Colby Lewis – Looking at the career numbers against the Angels hitters, Lewis has given up a .345 opposing average in 171 at bats with 22 XBH and 9 home runs. Leading the charge not surprisingly is Mike Trout ($4,900) who is 12 for 30 with 4 home runs against Lewis and leads the Angels in a matchup where they have one of the highest projected team totals on the night. Left handed hitters have hit Lewis hard over his career (.284 average) so targeting Kole Calhoun ($2,900) who also has a near .400 average in his career against Lewis makes for another great mini stack option.

Arizona versus Tyler Chatwood – Many gamers were burned when the Rockies were postponed on Thursday, but the Diamondback get the benefit on Friday of now facing Tyler Chatwood. Any time the Rockies move outside of Coors we typically see not only their ownership drop but the opposing teams as well. However with this game at Chase Field and an O/U at 10 runs, this is a great game to target as Chatwood has given up an opposing average of .285 in his career and is equally charitable to players on both sides of the plate. The D-back outside of Paul Goldschmidt ($4,700) can make for a very cost effective stack and my top target is OF – David Peralta ($3,400) who is batting cleanup and at this price point may get overlooked in an ideal matchup.

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!