DraftKings MLB Picks For May 1
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For May 1
Happy May Day! Unfortunately, there will be no recommendations for Sam “Mayday” Malone in this installation of our DraftKings picks, but there are 10 games in the early tournament today. That means a lot of stats to go through, and a lot of tough decisions to make. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
The only Philadelphia player that Danny Salazar has faced is Peter Bourjos (he is 0-2). Mike Pelfrey has only faced one former teammate (Joe Mauer), but I wouldn’t rule out stacking some Twins against the struggling veteran.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Madison Bumgarner ($11,500): Yes, MadBum has been a bit off this year (2-2, 3.64 ERA), but he has pitched well against the Mets. They are hitting only .222 off of him in 54 at bats with a homer, nine RBI, and 11 strikeouts. That homer and five of the RBI are by journeyman catcher Rene Rivera, who has played in only one game this year. If the Mets start him, you should maybe look into it as well. No one else in a Met uniform has been able to get the best of him.
Carlos Martinez ($9,700): It isn’t a long history, but it is a good one. The Nationals only have 29 at bats against Martinez, but they have mustered only four hits(.138), only one extra base hit (a double by Anthony Rendon) and have struck out a whopping 11 times. He is a strong bet this afternoon.
Honorable Mention:
Cole Hamels ($9,000): Word out of Texas is that Hamels is still in line to start tomorrow, and you should be glad he is. The Angels are only hitting .160 off of him in 131 at bats with four homers, ten RBI, and 24 strikeouts. The strikeout total is relatively low, but it can be forgiven. Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Mike Trout, and Kole Calhoun are a combined 13-71(.183) with four homers (Pujols has three in 30 at bats, but only five hits), eight RBI, and 12 strikeouts.
Chris Sale ($11,900): Sale is an elite pitcher without elite stats against today’s opponent. They aren’t bad, but you want dominant if you are going to spend this much on a pitcher. I’m not sure Sale will be it. The Orioles are hitting .239 against Sale in 71 at bats, but the have homered three times and driven in eight. THe 25 strikeouts still make him an enticing option though.
Dark Horse:
Jake Odorizzi ($8,000): It seems like a huge risk against Stroman and the Blue Jays, but the stats say otherwise. Toronto is only hitting .175 with five homers, 12 RBI, and 21 strikeouts over 103 at bats. Add that to Stroman’s history against the Rays, and Odorizzi could be a nice sleeper this afternoon.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Am I actually advocating a stack against Chris Sale? Well, kind of. Mark Trumbo ($3,800) is a no-brainer. He is 5-11(.455) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI off of Sale. The other two may surprise you. J.J. Hardy ($2,100) is only 3-11(.273) against Sale, but he does have a home run off of him. He may be worth the risk at $2,100. The other is the scuffling Adam Jones ($3.200). He is 4-11(.364) wtih a walk, a homer, and two RBI off Sale. These guys come cheaper today, and may be worth the risk.
Don’t look now, but the Rays have actually hit Marcus Stroman hard. Hank Conger ($2,800) is 2-5 with a walk , a homer, and three RBI, and should be in line for a start in a day game after a night game. Evan Longoria ($3,200) is 5-9 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Stroman. Corey Dickerson ($3,200) only has one hit in four at bats against Stroman, but, you guessed it, it was a home run.
If you want to stack to chase home runs, doing so against Jake Odorizzi could be a good idea. The Blue Jays have been mostly all-or-nothing off of him, but the gamble work out. Josh Donaldson ($4,900) is only 2-11 against Odorizzi, but both of those hits are home runs and he has walked four times. Kevin Pillar ($3,200) has fared the best, going 4-11 with two doubles and a solo home run off of him.
Yes, I know Ricky Nolasco has pitched fairly well this year, but don’t use him against the Tigers. Just don’t. The Tigers are hitting .355 off of him in 121 at bats, and though they have only homered twice, they have scored 21 runs. Consider stacking some Tigers today. Mike Aviles ($2,400) is 8-14 with a double, a home run, and four RBI against Nolasco. Ian Kinsler ($4,300) is 7-17(.412) with three doubles and four RBI. The already red-hot Victor Martinez ($3,800) is 5-11(.455) with three walks, a double and a RBI.
Jose Abreu ($4,400) is only 2-9 off of Ubaldo Jimenez, but both of those hits are home runs. Brett Lawrie ($3,700) is 4-11 with two walks, a homer, and three RBI against Ubaldo. Avisail Garcia ($3,600) is an impressive 7-13(.538) but he only has one extra base hit (a double) and one RBI.
Next: More Notes For 5-1
Adrian Beltre ($3,700) is 12-40(.300 with three home runs (all of the one the Rangers have hit off of Garrett Richards) and seven RBI with a pair of walks.
Noah Syndergaard has only faced the Giants once, but they hit him well in that game and only struck out once. Matt Duffy ($3,000) did almost all of the damage. He was 2-3 with the only home run off of Thor (a s0lo shot).
Yes, Vince Velasquez actually faced Cleveland last year. Michael Brantley ($3,700) went 2-3 with a solo home run, but there were plenty of Cleveland players on the basepaths even though Velasquez limited the damage.
Eugenio Suarez ($4,200) is 5-9 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI against Jeff Locke. It’s going to be tough to decide on a third baseman this afternoon. Jay Bruce ($3,500) has as many hits as RBI (six) off of Locke, but he may be worth the risk.
Max Scherzer‘s homecoming to St. Louis may not go as planned. The Cardinals are hitting .286 off of him in 70 at bats. Jedd Gyorko ($2,500) is 1-3 with a solo home run off of Scherzer. Brandon Moss ($2,800) is only 4-17(.235), but he does have two walks, two homers, and four RBI off of Scherzer.
Derek Dietrich ($3,600) should be in the lineup with the suspension of Dee Gordon. He is 5-10 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI off of Wily Peralta.
Looking for a value play? Nick Markakis ($3,700) is 23-68(.338) with eight walks, six doubles, a triple, and six RBI against John Lackey in his career.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($3,500) could turn out to be a bargain today. He is 2-5 with three walks, a double, a home run, and three RBI against Tom Koehler.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play an FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for the NBA playoffs and FanDuel baseball!