FanDuel Economics: MLB Monday, May 2nd Picks
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Monday May 1st Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a seven day period to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
With ten teams taking the day off, there’s a short 10 game MLB schedule today. Monday is back to evening only games, with the first pitch occurring at 7:00pm ET in Pittsburgh, with the Pirates facing off against the Cubs. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 7:05 ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers (SP)
Tonight’s pitcher options are lighter with only twenty teams playing. Even more difficult, tonight’s value options are scaled down as well. Kendall Graveman appears to be the most valuable, at 5X, but I’m concerned that his one game against the Yankees, 52 points, inflating his value. Not to mention he had an 8 point stinker in Detroit last outing. A.J. Griffin (7:07pm ET) is the exception. Griffin appears to get better each outing. In fact, his FanDuel points per outing look that way as well; 24, 27, 42, and 48. Griffin is 3-0 in four outings. Over each of the last three games, A.J. had 5 or 6 strikeouts. Griffin’s ERA has plummeted to 2.52 on the season. At this point in the year, A.J. is averaging 35.2 PPG. Griffin’s salary tonight is a fairly cheap $7,600, for 30-40 points, a 4.6X value. A.J. faces a tough lineup in Toronto tonight, but value and history so far this year make him an attractive option.
Jimmy Nelson (7:20pm ET) is a great pitcher on a bad team. In five outings, Nelson is 3-2 but in Jimmy’s two losses he gave up a combined 3 runs. So Nelson is getting very little run support from the Brewers hitters. Nelson also has a couple of games with a combined 4 K’s, leading to lower points. But, over the last week Jimmy averaged 34.4 PPG. Jimmy’s salary is still only $7,100 leading to a 4.8X value. That is a higher value than Griffin, but I’m worried about Jimmy’s inconsistent strikeout results and lack of run support from his team’s offense. Still, Nelson is a strong value consideration tonight at home against the Angles.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.
Albert Pujols, 1B, (7:20pm ET) has been hot and cold this season, similar to last season. If you look at Albert’s average for the year, .176, you’re probably inclined to stay away from Pujols as a pick for first base. However, Albert has 3 double-digit games over his last seven. In that time, Pujols also hit a total of 4 home runs, 2 in one game. In total, Albert is averaging 15.6 PPG over the last week. Pujols has a $3,300 salary tonight giving you a 4.7X value. Early, we talked about Jimmy Nelson’s year as a pitcher for the Brewers, and that’s who Albert faces tonight which makes me nervous. However, if you’re fading Nelson’s value and given Pujols’ current hitting, you should really like Pujols as an option tonight against the Brewers.
David Freese, 3B, (7:05pm ET) was hot toward the end of April. David got the day off yesterday, but still took an an at-bat without any points. However, prior to yesterday, Freese had more than 9 points in five of his last six games. In one game against the Diamondbacks, David compiled 33.9 points without even hitting a home run. He followed that up two games later with a home run and 18.7 points in Colorado. Over the last week, Freese averaged 15.3 PPG. Tonight, David has a $3,200 salary giving us a 4.8X value. With Pujols and Freese at the corners for you in your lineup, you’re only spending $6,500 on 30-35 points, leaving you with plenty of money to spend on the other infield positions.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Over the last couple of weeks, Hunter Pence (7:10pm ET) has been absolutely ripping the baseball. Over the last week, Hunter has 18.5 PPG, 7th among all outfielders. Pence has a $3,500 salary tonight leading to a 5.3X value, 12th among all outfielders. Over his last seven games, Hunter has missed double-digit point only twice, a 3 point game against the Mets and a 9 point game against the Padres. Outside of those two duds, Pence has been piling on more than 20 points most games, a 34.4 point game against the Padres. yesterday against the Mets Hunter piled on 28.7 points with a Home Run and 3 RBI’s. I really like Pence’s value against tonight in Cincinnati against the Reds.
Sean Smith (10:05pm ET) had 5 hits against the Royals in their three game series. Two of those hits were Home Runs. Similar to Pence, Smith has only two games below double-digit points. However, Smith’s point totals aren’t climbing as high as Pence. That being said, Sean had 16.8 PPG over the last week. Smith’s salary is $3,300 leading to a decent 5.1X value. Sean could continue to roll in Oakland tonight and his salary is still cheap enough to make him an attractive value option. Pence and Smith leave you with enough cash to potentially land an expensive but high-points pick as your 3rd outfield option.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!