Dwight Howard: Risk vs. Reward

At this point, it’s almost hard to believe that Howard was once one of the five best players in the NBA, and unquestionably the best big man out there. With Stan Van Gundy and the Orlando Magic, Howard anchored an incredible defense that he carried all the way the NBA Finals. Perhaps more impressive, Van Gundy and Howard combined to help jumpstart the three-point shooting era that we all know and love today. Four three-point shooters out on the perimeter with one big man inside to create a ton of space, throw in a heavy dose of pick-and-roll, and an offense that the entire league would soon be borrowing from. Howard was a big part of that.

Now, as his season with the Houston Rockets came to an abrupt end in a gentleman’s sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors, the questions about Howard all have a distinctly negative tilt. What uniform will he be wearing next season, and can he ever play basketball up to a level that makes suffering the drama surrounding him worth it?

Howard is not that same player. A back injury during his final season in Orlando has severely limited the explosiveness that he once used to dominate opposing teams. He’s clearly lost a step, and there’s criticism that he hasn’t changed his game to adjust to that lack of athleticism. He’s obsessed with posting up when that kind of game doesn’t fit his skill set, the team’s need, or the current climate of the NBA. As the league progresses, Howard seems to want to go backwards just so he can prove that he still has the ability to do it.

There’s been no official word yet on if Howard will actually opt out of the final year of his contract to leave the Houston Rockets, but anybody that’s watched that team this year knows he’s gone. Rumors swirled at the trade deadline of Houston trying to move Howard, but his refusal to guarantee an opt-in for his new team caused hesitation and no one else was willing to accept the risk. It’s clear that Howard wants to test free agency, and most likely find a long-term deal for the maximum amount of money. It’s the smart business move, and on top of that he’ll get to escape the madhouse that is the Houston Rockets (even though the madhouse seems to follow him).

The Rockets looked like they hated each other this season. Their effort was laughably inconsistent and players like Trevor Ariza were visibly frustrated with the situation as a whole. Despite having solid defenders like Howard, Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Josh Smith, and Corey Brewer, Houston still allowed an average 105.6 points per 100 possessions — 21st in the NBA and more than the New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, and Washington Wizards. In the first round of the playoffs they were the star of Vine’s everywhere as players just didn’t rotate, or imitated a saloon door when they did happen to be standing in front of the ball-handler. Nobody expected Houston to be a force defensively, but was respectable really so much to ask for?

The Rockets fired their head coach 11 games into the season. The saddest part of the Kevin McHale firing was that while most of the players on Houston’s roster didn’t come to his defense, one big man did — the famous coach-killer Dwight Howard. As McHale was packing his bags, much of the usual blame shifted onto Howard. At felt like reruns of a show Howard had starred in before, with previous versions set in Los Angeles and Orlando. The plot goes like this: chaos descends. Howard can’t stay out of his own way, and here he is just getting coaches fired. The reason the defense is bad? Howard. Why do the Rockets hate each other? Howard. Why can’t Howard back these guys down and use a flurry of post moves? Why does he insist on posting up so much? Why isn’t he Hakeem? Why isn’t he Blake Griffin? Why isn’t he Shaq? Why does his offense stink? Why does he love fart jokes so much? The reputation is so heavy at this point that it’s a shock Howard hasn’t collapsed from it.

This reputation, as an on and off-court cancer, isn’t going anywhere at this point in his career. Before this season, Howard would have no question been a max-contract player. Last season Houston went to the Conference Finals and while Howard wasn’t quite the player that he was in Orlando, it was really close thanks to a return to form on the defensive end. Howard only played 41 games due to injury, but when he was on the floor Houston only gave up 97 points per 100 possessions, when off the floor that mark jumped to 102 points per 100. Offensively, he was still post-up focused but he was more willing to go into the pick-and-roll as well. The Rockets were incredible, and Howard was a huge part of that.

Now, after a hellish season, which Howard has taken a sizable amount of the blame for there are enormous questions about what his value is as a free agent. Houston wasn’t any worse when Howard was on the floor this season on offense or defense, but he also didn’t make them better. After looking more like his old self the year before, Howard spent much of this season in a state of regression. He was constantly late on rotations, and his offensive impact was barely visible. Add on that he’s 30 years old there is justified concern about him.

However, it’s possible he’s taken more than his share of the blame this season, after all, the Rockets were a train wreck from top to bottom. James Harden could not have been any less of a leader, and they were left with an interim coach doing the best he could with a group of guys that didn’t really seem to care. Publicly, Howard played good soldier for much of the season and handled everything for the most part professionally. It’s fair to criticize him for lackluster play, but this was a team-wide problem. Sometimes he didn’t rotate but neither did anybody else. Howard selfishly tried to post players up instead of using the pick-and-roll to force his way inside. At the same time, he attempted the fewest shots in his career since his rookie season, and when ball handlers like Harden are refusing to pass him the ball why should he do all the work of fighting for position?

Context is why Howard still might get a big contract despite the concerns. His body of work suggests that when in a better environment, Howard plays better basketball. There is going to be a team (probably several) out there looking for a star player to get them over the edge, and when they look at Dwight many are going to see a player that’s worth the risk. They’ll believe that their culture, their environment, can keep Howard happy as he finishes out the last few years of his prime. He has lost a lot of leverage this season but his career isn’t over just yet. Assuming he opts out, someone is going to pay him a lot of money to play basketball for them next year and it will be up to him to prove he’s worth that money.

If not, he’ll just prove all the criticisms correct.