FanDuel Economics: MLB Wednesday, May 4th Picks

May 3, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner (11), designated hitter Alex Rodriguez (13) and right fielder Carlos Beltran (36) look onto the field from the dugout during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Wednesday, May 4th Picks

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Wednesday, May 4th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

Wednesday has another full slate of 15 MLB games scheduled. However, today the games are almost evenly split between the afternoon and evening. The first two games start off in Pittsburgh with Jon Lester, Cubs, throwing the first pitch and Cincinnati where Jake Peavy, Giants, will toss the the first baseball. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:

12:35pm ET (All Day)
12:35pm ET (Early Only)
7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers - Early

Apr 29, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws the ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers – Early

Stephen Strasburg (2:15pm ET) is certainly not a cheap option with a $11,100 salary tonight. But Strasburg is having a fantastic start to the season. This is the Strasburg Nats fans have been waiting to see consistently throughout each year. After five starts, Stephen is 4-0. Through 36 innings, Strasburg has a 2.25 ERA with 40 strikeouts, 9th in the Majors, and only 8 walks. Stephen is averaging a very high 49.8 PPG this season, so his value is 4.5X, which is one of the best value options of the day even with such a high salary. Strasburg faces a tough Royals team today, but the way he’s pitching it may not matter who he’s facing.

Juan Nicasio (12:35pm ET) had an up and down start to the season, but with better run support, his results would look better. Nicasio is 3-2 over five starts. Over 27 innings Juan struck out 29 batters and has a 3.33 ERA. That’s a solid start to the year for the righty. Juan is averaging 34.8 PPG on the season. Unfortunately his salary increased to $8,000 but that’s still a 4.4X value. Nicasio also faces a tough lineup today in the Cubs, but Juan has pitched really well at home this year (48, 39, and 57 points).

Next: Value Pitchers - Late

Apr 19, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Smyly (33) pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers – Late

We’ve talked about Aaron Sanchez (7:10pm ET) a few times this season already, and thanks to a 4 point meltdown against the A’s, Sanchez’s salary is still relatively low. Outside of the A’s outing, Aaron has been absolutely fantastic. Sanchez will last 6-7 innings most games and with a low 2.59 ERA, he’s building plenty of points during that time. Aaron also has 29 K’s over 31.1 innings. Sanchez exceeded 50 points twice, once in Boston and once in Tampa Bay. On the season, Aaron is averaging 35.6 PPG. With a very low $7,100 salary, Sanchez has a very high 5X value. Aaron Sanchez is a great option at home against the Rangers tonight.

Drew Smyly (7:10pm ET) has a similar story to Sanchez, but his worst outing was his first game of the season against the Blue Jays, compiling only 20 points. Because he didn’t have such a bad result as Sanchez, he’s still more expensive at $8,700 tonight. Smyly’s biggest problem is lack of run support from the Rays offense. Over five starts and with a low 2.60 ERA, Drew is only 1-3, a baffling result considering his stats. Over 34.2 innings, Smyly has 41 strikeouts, 1 more than Strasburg, and only 6 walks. With better run support and the 12 point win value from FanDuel, Drew’s PPG average is going to sky-rocket. Tonight’s value is a very good 4.8X value which I really like going into a home game against the Dodgers.

Next: Value Hitters - Early

Apr 10, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Chris Carter (33) hits a double in the third inning against the Houston Astros at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – Early

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.

Assuming he gets another start again today, Geovany Soto, C, (1:40pm ET) is quietly crushing the ball lately for the Angels. Soto has 2 home runs over three games since April 29th. In the last week, Soto is averaging 17.6 PPG and with today’s salary of only $2,600, Geovany is a fantastic 6.8X value today. I like Soto as a value option for Catcher in the early part of the day in Milwaukee.

We talked about Chris Carter, 1B, (1:40pm ET) in our recent position analysis focused on first basemen. In Carter’s first three games of the season, he hit 4 home runs. Depending on how everyone’s results iron out by the end of Tuesday night, Carter could be 3rd in HR’s in the major league, 2 behind the league leader Arenado. Carter’s average has remained respectably just below .300 most of the season. Over the last week, Chris averaged 14.3 PPG and with a surprisingly low $3,200 salary he has a 4.5X value tonight. I like Carter again tonight at home against the Angels.

We talked about Jonathan Villar, SS, (1:40pm ET) in good detail yesterday so I won’t reiterate everything and only give an update. Villar is again a great value tonight at 4.9X, even though his salary climbed to $3,200. I like Jonathan’s value again against the Angels.

Khris Davis, OF, (3:35pm ET) has a lot of power and for that reason can be an attractive daily fantasy baseball option when he’s hot. Davis hit 2 home runs on Monday and had 2 as well toward the end of April. Over the last week, Khris averaged 13.8 PPG. Davis’ salary climbed $300 to $3,100 tonight, but that’s still giving us a 4.5X value which is not only one of the best OF early options but also one of the best OF options for the entire day. Davis could be an interesting value play again today at home against the Mariners.

Next: Value Hitters - Late

Apr 21, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins first baseman Justin Bour (41) connects for an RBI double during the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals at Marlins Park. The Marlins won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – Late

If Carlos Ruiz, C, (8:15pm ET) starts behind the plate for the Phillies again tonight, he should be a great Catching value option. The Phillies lineup has been hot lately and part of that is Ruiz. Carlos has double-digit FanDuel point results every game since his April 17th. Over the last week, Ruiz is averaging 16.5 PPG and his salary has only climbed to $3,000 giving us a fantastic 5.5X value. I love Carlos as the value catching option tonight in St. Louis.

With Rubby De La Rosa, a RHP, facing the Marlins tonight, it’s likely Justin Bour, 1B, (7:10pm) will get the start at first base. Including a 2 home run night in Milwaukee, Bour is averaging 17.2 PPG over the last seven days. Justin’s salary is only $3,000 tonight giving us a 5.7X value. Bour historically does very well against right handed pitchers and Da La Rosa has struggled at times this year. Justin is a great value option at first base tonight.

We’ve talked about Brett Lawrie, 2B, (8:10pm ET) before and he continues to have a great season. Lawrie is hitting .290 with 4 home runs, 15 runs, and 10 RBI’s. Oh and 3 of those 4 HR’s came within a 3-game period, April 29th through May 1st. In the past seven days, Lawrie is averaging 17.4 PPG. Brett’s salary is only $3,300 again tonight giving us a very high 5.3X value. Lawrie looks like a great option again tonight in Chicago against the Red Sox.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!