MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 4

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 4

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Wednesday’s games are broken across two slates with 7 games in the early slate which kicks off at 12:35PM EST and another 7 games in the “Main Slate” which starts at 7:05PM EST.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Monday’s GPP results were lower than we have become accustomed to, however we did see a bargain basement pitcher Jon Gray put up 45 points which exceeded 8x value!

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers - Early Slate

Starting Pitchers – Early Slate

Tyler Chatwood ($7,400) – The early slate has many intriguing arms, but my favorite GPP target will be the Rockies right hander who gets the privilege of facing the Padres in San Diego. The Padres are 2^nd to last in MLB in strikeouts per game, averaging 9.85/game. Chatwood has been extremely up and down over his first 5 games, as Coors Field will do that to you, but take a closer look at his home and road splits. In two home starts, Chatwood has been hit hard and has only averaged 12 points per game. On the road however, over 3 starts Chatwood has averaged 44.67 points per game which would deliver 5.9x value at his current price point. Keep in mind that in one of those starts against the Cubs, Chatwood struck out 7 hitters and put up 54 fantasy points. This matchup gives Chatwood the strikeout upside to match that outing, which if he can do so would deliver over 7x value which would be exactly what we need for large field GPP’s.

Hector Santiago ($8,600) – Santiago started off the season raging hot, but put up an 8 point dud in his last outing against Texas which I expect will drive his ownership down. However, this matchup with the Brewers is perfect for a bounce back performance has the Brewers are striking out in 25.1% of at bats, which is the 4 highest percentage of any team so far this year. Looking at the splits, the percentage remains static so there is no obvious platoon split working against Santiago here. In three of his 5 starts this season Santiago has struck out at least 7 batters and I expect Santiago will get back on track in this favorable matchup against the Brew Crew.

Steven Matz ($9,000) – For a smaller slate, the pitching options on this slate are plentiful and if you want to pivot off Santiago and pay up slightly, the Mets left hander gets a favorable matchup against the Atlanta Braves. Looking at the Braves statistics this season, they have really struggled against LHP putting up only a .221 average with 2 homeruns. More importantly, the Braves strikeout a whopping 26.3% of the time against LHP, 2^nd highest mark in the majors. Matz has pitched at an elite level over his last 3 starts, averaging over 50 points per game which would be good for 5.6x value at this price point. The fact that the price point has “caught up” to the production makes Matz a secondary play for me, but considering the matchup and the strikeout upside I still will look to utilize Matz in both Cash games and various GPP lineups.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks - Early Slate

Top Hitters/Stacks – Early Slate

Reds against Jake Peavy – Peavy has gotten routinely tattooed so far this season, and pitching in the bandbox in Cincinnati should continue to add on to his early season woes. Joey Votto ($3,600) is my top hitting target on the early slate as he has put up 22 points over his last two games and gets to face a pitcher giving up a .447 average to opposing left handers this year. Jay Bruce ($3,700), Eugenio Suarez ($2,900) and Brandon Phillips ($2,300) are easy to fit complimentary pieces that all have home run hitting ability in one of the most favorable matchups on the board.

Angels Stacks against Zach Davies – The Angels come into Wednesday with one of the highest team totals on the board facing a pitcher who has given up at least 4 runs in all 3 of his starts so far this season. Davies has a walk rate of 10.5% which is just a shade under his 14.9% K rate, which is a recipe for a lot of crooked numbers from the opposing offense. Kole Calhoun ($3,200) has really stepped up his hitting of late, with 7 hits in his last 4 games heading into Tuesday night and Davies has struggled to the tune of a .414 average to opposing left handers. Pairing Calhoun up with Mike Trout ($5,000) gives us tremendous upside and with the cost savings in the Reds stack, it is very easy to fit in both these stacks and one of the top end arms.

Next: Top Starting Pitchers - Main Slate

Starting Pitchers – Main Slate

Drew Smyly ($8,900) – I am surprised that Smyly’s price has remain unchanged over the last 7 days, as we get the ability to target a pitcher averaging 41 points per game and has struck out 41 batters in only 34 innings. This feels like the “chalk” play of the night slate but with only 7 games on tap, I have no issue going with Smyly and differentiating elsewhere. Smyly has put up games of 36,48,48 and 57 over his last 4 showing you the upside he has but also the safety/floor which makes him a great cash game option. Smyly has two games this year with 11 K’s which puts him on the GPP radar as well as if he can replicate those outings we could be in for a huge score.

Aaron Sanchez ($7,100) – One potential GPP pivot is the Toronto right hander who gets a home matchup against the Rangers. Sanchez has been wildly inconsistent and frankly he burned me two games ago when he put up only 4 points but sandwiched on either side of that start were a pair of 51 point outings which would be be good for 7x value at this price point. There is a certain amount of risk with this game being held in Toronto but there are no bargain options with the upside Sanchez can bring and frankly, Sanchez can match the point totals of the more elite arms on the slate as he has shown so far this year.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks - Main Slate

Top Hitters/Stacks – Main Slate

Astros versus Phil Hughes – As noted in the pitching preview, the bargain options on the bump are not ideal but it opens up some great hitting options. The Astros get a home matchup with Phil Hughes who has a low strikeout rate of 16.7% but because he barely walks anyone, we can expect the Astros to put in the ball in play. The Astros make for a great boom or bust GPP stack as their hitters lead the league in strikeouts but have the massive power upside we look for in large field tournaments. George Springer ($3,600) & Colby Rasmus ($3,100) make for great cost effective OF stacks and even Carlos Correa ($4,100) and Jose Altuve ($4,100) are easily playable with the cost effective starting pitching on the mound.

Orioles versus CC Sabathia – Sabathia has been very mediocre to start the year and a trip to Camden Yards puts the Orioles power bats squarely on my radar as a top power hitting GPP Stack. Mark Trumbo ($3,700) comes into this game fresh off a 2 home run 40.9 point performance and is one of the more streaky hitters in the game so I am happy to target him again tonight. From a BvP perspective, Adam Jones ($2,700) is 19 for 61 with 4 home runs against Sabathia in his career and makes for a cost effective addition to any Orioles stack.

Next: FanDuel Bargains And Price Changes At First Base

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!