FanDuel Economics: Early MLB Picks May 6th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the Early MLB Picks May 6th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
The MLB schedule has a full slate of 15 games on Saturday. Typical for an MLB Saturday, we see a split of games between early games starting after noon, and evening games starting after 7pm. This article is specifically focused on the EARLY only slate of games. Another article following this one will focus on the LATE games, including ‘All Day’ and ‘Main’ options. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day:
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers - Early
Value Pitchers (Early)
Ian Kennedy (4:10pm ET) has one rough outing, only 9 points, in L.A. against the Angels. That stinker aside, Kennedy’s had a solid year. After five starts, Ian is 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA. Over 31 innings, Kennedy has 29 strikeouts (K’s) and only 11 walks. Earlier in the year Ian pitched three straight 7 K games. Kennedy’s last outing was in Seattle where he landed the win while giving up only 1 earned run and fanning 6 batters. Ian has exceeded 50 FanDuel points twice this year and exceeded 40 points three out of his five outings. Kennedy is averaging 37.8 PPG. For some reason Ian’s salary dropped $300 to $8,000 giving us a very good 4.7X value for today. Kennedy is one of the best pitching value options today heading to the mound in Cleveland against the Indians.
We’ve visited A.J. Griffin (1:10pm ET) a few times this year and not much as changed, he just keeps getting better. After two straight 20-30 FanDuel point games to start the season, Griffin is consistently piling over 40 points per game in each of his last three outings. On the season A.J. is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA after five starts. Griffin struck out 26 batters over 31 innings, a ratio just short of Ian Kennedy. A.J. is averaging 36.3 PPG this year and with a cheap $8,100 salary he provides a 4.5X value today. I love A.J.’s value, but there is risk pitching against a mostly right-handed hitting lineup of the Detroit Tigers. Proceed with caution.
Next: Value Hitters - INF (Early)
Value Hitters – INF (Early)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.
Assuming he gets the start again on Saturday, Christian Vazquez, C, (1:05pm ET) is an interesting value option. Christian seems to claw his way to several points every game he plays. Lately, Vazquez has been able to compile double-digit FanDuel points multiple times, including a home run game against the Yankees. Over the last week Christian averaged 11.5 PPG. With a very cheap $2,300 salary, you have a 5X value at the Catcher position. Vazquez, if in the lineup, will at least give you 3-6 points with the potential to get 10-20 on a very cheap salary allowing you to spend a bunch of money on another lineup pick.
Mike Napoli, 1B, (4:10pm ET) is hot lately, getting double-digit FanDuel points in all four of his games over the last week. Mike is only hitting a .225 average on the season, but he also has 5 home runs, 15 runs, and 17 RBI’s demonstrating solid power. Over the last week, Napoli averaged 15.1 PPG. On a $3,300 salary Mike is providing a solid 4.6X value, one of the best values at the first base position today.
We’ll have a position analysis focused on the second base coming out soon where we talk about Ben Zobrist, 2B, (4:05pm ET). Zobrist can be streaky, but lately Ben has been on fire. Over the last week, Zobrist is averaging 17 PPG, 2nd among all second basement and just below Jose Altuve‘s 17.3 PPG. Ben’s salary did climb to $3,700 but he’s still giving you a great 4.6X value. Considering you’re getting 15-20 points for that salary, this is a great play for today.
I’ve talked about him a lot lately, but I have to come back to Nick Castellanos, 3B, (1:10pm ET) once again. Nick is another hitting just scorching the baseball lately. Over the last week, Castellanos is averaging and amazing 19.6 PPG, the most of all third basemen and 3.5 PPG more than the 2nd most PPG option. Nick’s salary also climbed lately, but still a fairly cheap $3,500. So Nick is giving you a very high 5.6X value coming into a game against the Rangers at home today.
Trevor Story, SS, (4:05pm ET) was very hot at the beginning of the season, but then cooled off for some time. Trevor is back! Story’s power appears to be coming back, even when he isn’t hitting in Coors Field. Over the last week, Trevor averaged 18 PPG, easily the most among all shortstops. In fact, you have to negate over 5 points, 12.8 PPG, to climb down to the 2nd position in PPG among all SS over the last week. Story’s salary is still a pricey $4,200, but that gives you a 4.3X value. That is Trevor’s highest value in a while, and is a top 5 value option among all shortstops. It’s time to consider Story in your lineup again.
Next: Value Hitters - OF (Early)
Value Hitters – OF (Early)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (1:05pm ET) continues to find ways to pick up FanDuel points each game with triples, runs, home runs, and stolen bases. Bradley had 2 triples against the Yankees on April 30th. On Thursday, Jackie went yard in Chicago against the White Sox. Over the last week, Bradley averaged 16.6 PPG. Jackie’s salary has only climbed to $3,100, likely because his hot streak may not continue for long. However, with a 5.4X value today, it’s worth considering Bradley again until his run ends, or his salary climbs to high.
Jayson Werth (4:05pm ET) has been quiet over the past year, mostly due to injuries but also because of a lack in power. However, lately Werth seems to be seeing the ball well and regaining his power swing. Jayson has 2 home runs, 6 Runs, and 6 RBI’s in his last four games. Over the last week, Werth is averaging 15.8 PPG, much higher than he’s averaged all season. Jayson’s salary did climb $200 to $3,400, but that still gives us a very good 4.6X value heading into the afternoon game against the Chicago Cubs.
Justin Upton (1:10pm ET) is having an update and down year. Also, his value isn’t high among all outfielders, but he’s one of the better value options among outfielders in the early slate of games. Over the last week, Upton averaged 13.4 PPG. Justin’s salary is only $3,200 giving us a decent 4.2X value. Facing another right handed pitcher today, Upton is decent value pick for the outfield position today.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.