MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks Late May 7

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks Late May 7

Welcome to the Saturday late edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Saturday presents with the usual “multi-slate” as we get 7 games in the afternoon starting off at 1:05PM EST and an additional 8 games to be played starting at 7:05PM EST for the “main slate.” This article will focus on the LATE slate only.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Thursday’s winners had two common themes across across large field GPP’s – did you fade Jacob deGrom and how many Blue Jays and Rockies did you start in your lineups? deGrom had a disappointing performance from a tournament perspective (although was still solid enough for cash games) which allowed Kyle Hendricks to outpace him with 42 points at only $7,200. It was the offenses however that ruled the day, similar to what we have seen over the past 3 days as the Blue Jays and Rockies absolutely went off. Edwin Encarnacion (54.4 pts), Trevor Story (34.9 pts) and Gerrardo Parra (32.1) based an offense that put up over 27 points per batter in the winning lineup. We have seen over the last 3 days – it is taking a 25-29 point performance per batter in order to take down the large field tournaments so the strategy needs to be to shoot for the high upside stacks as they tend to be the most profitable for these contests.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers - Late Slate

Starting Pitchers – Late

Chris Sale ($12,000) – Although the price is high, Sale gets one of the best matchups on the board against the Twins at home in Chicago. Looking at the statistics so far this season, one stat jumps out at me as the Twins are leading the league in strikeouts per game on the road, averaging 11.29 per game. What is astonishing is the difference between their home and road splits as the Twins strike out 73% more on the road as opposed to when they are at home. I understand the price is steep but the upside here is immense and Sale is in a spot where you need to ensure you can budget him in for cash games and even roll him out in various tournament entries.

Jimmy Nelson ($7,500) – Nelson has been rock solid so far this season, averaging 36.17 points per start. Nelson has put up 5.2x value over the last two weeks including a 45 point outing his last time out against the Angels. Nelson has struck out 6 batters per start over his last 3 games and most impressively is that his ground ball rate has spiked to 53.8% this season which is allowing him to limit the damage done when balls are put in play. At this price point, Nelson has the ability to continue to deliver 5-6x value and is a worthwhile tournament pivot if you are looking to fade Sale.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks - Late Games

Top Hitters/Stacks – Late

Brew Crew against LHP Brandon Finnegan – The Brewers have one of the highest team totals on the board and get a favorable matchup against the young left hander for the Reds. Finnegan has really struggled against RHP giving up 10 homeruns in his career in only 66 IP to opposing right handed hitters and the Brewers can trot out Jonathan Lucroy ($3,100) & Ryan Braun($4,200) who has a career average over .330 in his career against LHP. Jonathan Villar ($3,400) makes for a great addition to this stack as he is averaging 12.2 fantasy points over the previous 15 days which is more than Carlos Correa who is priced at $700 more!

Tampa Bay versus Jered Weaver – An under the radar stack I will look to pivot to is to employ the Rays against RHP Jered Weaver. Weaver’s K rate is down to its lowest point of his career at 11% which sits just 2% above his walk rate and is giving up over a .300 average to hitters on both sides of the plate. Corey Dickerson ($2,500) at this price point hitting in the heart of the order is an absolute must play for me in any and all formats. Brad Miller ($2,200) makes for a great punt play as he typically hits near the top of the order and at this minimum price point can help you afford to pay up for Sale on the main slate.

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!