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FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 10th

By Matt Rogers

May 6, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; The Guinness World Record for selfie sticks used at once is achieved by fans during the fourth inning between the Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
May 6, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; The Guinness World Record for selfie sticks used at once is achieved by fans during the fourth inning between the Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 8, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Hanley Rameriz (13) is tagged out at home plate by New York Yankees catcher Brian McCann (34) trying to score on a fly ball out in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Hanley Rameriz (13) is tagged out at home plate by New York Yankees catcher Brian McCann (34) trying to score on a fly ball out in the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 10th

Welcome to FanDuel Economics!  This is the MLB Picks May 10th edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

After four teams getting a rest yesterday, the MLB schedule is back to a full slate of 15 games on Tuesday.  All games start after 7:05 PM ET, with each game being the first or second game of a new series.  Kris Medlen and the Kansas City Royals throw one of the two first pitches of the night in New York against the Yankees, while the young Michael Fulmer throws the other first pitch in Washington, DC against the Nationals.  Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day.  I expect the options to expand to a 8:05pm ET ‘Express’ option as well as a ‘Late Night’ option beyond 10pm ET as well:

  • 7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder.  The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.  Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

May 5, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Kevin Gausman (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
May 5, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Kevin Gausman (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers

Tonight’s pitching options are slim on value.  I really liked Kevin Gausman (8:10pm ET) when his salary was at $6,500, providing the best value option at 4.6X.  Unfortunately, his salary jumped $1,200 to $7,700 plummeting his value to 3.9X.  However, Gausman is still a good play, you’re just paying what you should for him.

Every week, we seem to talk about Drew Smyly (10:10pm ET).  But after six starts, Smyly is only 1-3, which is likely muting the rest of his stat line.  Over 39.2 innings, Drew has a 2.72 ERA, giving up only 8 walks, and 47 strikeouts.  Smyly is another example of the win/loss column being impacted by lack of run support, but he is also getting no help from the bullpen.  In Drew’s last outing, he gave up 2 earned runs over 5 innings and struck out 6 against the Los Angels Dodgers.  Smyly was in a position to win, but Enny Romero gave up 3 runs in the 8th inning, killing Drew’s chance at a win.  Tonight, Smyly faces Wade Miley in Seattle against the Mariners.  Drew carries a 39.3 PPG average heading into the game.  With a still reasonable $9,400 salary, that gives us a 4.2X value and Smyly is once again an attractive value option at pitcher.

Adam Conley (7:10pm ET) has a similar story to Gausman and Smyly.  Only, Adam, is in the middle of the salary range between the other two value options at pitcher tonight.  After 6 up and down starts, Conley is 2-1.  Adam had rough outings against the Nationals twice and Giants once, giving up a total of 10 earned runs over the three games.  However, against the Mets, Brewers, and Diamondbacks Conley did not give up any earned runs.  In fact, in Milwaukee Adam had a no-hitter through 7.2 innings.  So, another attractive point for Conley tonight is he’s facing the Brewers again.  This season, Conley is averaging 31.7 PPG.  With a decent $8,400 salary, he’s bringing a 3.8X value against the Brewers who he dominated last time.

Next: Value Hitters - INF

May 8, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy hits an RBI double against the Cincinnati Reds during the sixth inning at Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy hits an RBI double against the Cincinnati Reds during the sixth inning at Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – INF

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  At the start of this season the values were all over the place.  There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.

Jonathan Lucroy, C, (7:10pm ET) took the day off yesterday so he should be back today.  That’s great news because Jonathan is on fire lately and his salary is still reasonable.  Over the last week, Lucroy has exceeded double-digit points in five games.  Three of those games he exceeded 20 points and two of those games he exceeded 30 points.  Also, Jonathan was able to do damage to both left and right handed pitchers.  Over the last week, Lucroy is averaging 17 PPG, which is the most of all daily starters at catcher.  Jonathan’s salary is still a reasonable $3,500 providing a wonderful 4.8X value at the catcher position.

With Chris Colabello suspended for 80 games (PED’s), Justin Smoak, 1B, (10:15pm ET) is holding down the first base job for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Lately, Smoak has been consistently hitting well, or always finding a way to get on base.  Smoak has a big 2 HR game against the Rangers on may 3rd.  Justin’s also been able to get walks or hits, including one double, allowing Smoak to get 5 runs over the last six games played.  Justin is averaging 13.7 PPG over the last week, 8th among all fist basemen.  Justin’s salary is still a very cheap $2,700 equating to a 5.1X value, the best value option among all first basemen tonight.  Tonight, Smoak faces a struggling Matt Cain against the Giants in San Francisco.

Late last week, we did a deep-dive into the second base, 2B, position and many of the value options remain the same.  Phillips, Zobrist, and Cano are top value options tonight.

Aaron Hill, 3B, (7:10pm ET) is likely not a long-term fantasy option but Hill is currently on a very hot streak for the Milwaukee Brewers and he’s worth considering tonight.  Notably, Hill crushed 3 home runs and piled up 7 RBI’s against the Reds on Saturday.  He isn’t hitting home runs on a consistent basis, but Aaron has a 9-game hitting streak and is now averaging 14.9 PPG over the last seven days.  With a very cheap $2,400 and incredible 6.2X value, Hill is a very good value option at third base tonight.

Marcus Semien, SS, (7:10pm ET) hasn’t been your typical hitting and scoring with speed shortstop so far this season.  Semien is you’re atypical power shortstop.  Hitters more likely to hit a home run give greater bang for your salary buck.  Over two games, April 4th followed by the first of a double-header on April 7th, Marcus hit two home runs and piled up 50 points.  Over the last seven days, Semien averaged 11.5 PPG, 10th among all shortstops.  Marcus has a very cheap $2,400 salary providing a 4.8X value.

Next: Value Hitters - OF

Apr 17, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson (31) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson (31) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – OF

Joc Pederson (10:10pm ET) was a hot fantasy baseball ‘underrated’ story heading into the season.  Pederson has still quietly had a solid season so far, despite the buzz.  Hitting a .275 batting average, 16 runs, 14 RBI’s, and 6 home runs isn’t bad for the young, 24 year old, outfielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In May, Joc has had four, out of five, double-digit FanDuel point games so far.  Over the last week, Pederson averaged 15 PPG.  Joc’s salary is an affordable $3,100 giving us a solid 4.8X value.

Christian Yelich (7:10pm ET) is having a great season, rightfully getting over shadowed by Giancarlo Stanton.  Yelich is averaging .340 this year with 20 runs, 16 RBI’s, and 4 home runs.  Christian has only 20 strikeouts and 19 walks.  Add on 8 doubles and 2 steals and you get the pitcher.  Yelich is a very efficient hitter.  Over the last week, Christian averaged 17.8 PPG, tied for first with Mike Trout.  Yelich has a reasonable $3,800 salary tonight giving us a 4.7X value.  Christian’s consistency and cheap salary suggests we continue to pick him until he becomes too pricey.

Adam Duvall (7:10pm ET) is becoming quite the slugger for the Cincinnati Reds.  Over Duvall’s last six games, he hit 4 of his season’s 6 home runs.  After eight games in May, Duvall had 18+ points in four of those games.  Over the last week, Adam is averaging 15.2 PPG, 8th among all outfielders.  Duvall’s salary has climbed $700 over the seven days, but at $3,400 he’s still a reasonable pick with a 4.5X value.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

Next: The economics of FanDuel: Second Basemen

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.