MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 10

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 10

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Tuesday’s slate gets started at 7:05PM EST with 15 games to choose from on the main slate.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Sunday’s high score was driven by a huge offensive day as the hitters on the winning lineup averaged an absurd 30 points per player. The winning lineup construction was built with a budget friendly starting pitcher in Matt Andriese who put up 39 points at only $5,200 which was good for 7.5x value and allowed the winning team to load up on high end hitters like David Ortiz, Yoenis Cespedes and Manny Machado.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Jon Lester ($11,000) – Initially when looking over this slate I liked the potential value that Kyle Hendricks presented but with the Monday night rain out it looks like he will be pushed back in the rotation. With Hendricks off the board, frankly the value options become limited and I will be more inclined to pay up for my pitcher on Tuesday night. Lester will have his start pushed back and will get to face the Padres at home. Lester was a heavy home favorite Monday night and we can expect the same story on Tuesday putting Lester in a great spot to get the all-important win. Over the course of the season no team strikes out more per game on the road than the Padres, as they strikeout 11 times per game away from San Diego. The price point is high, but without viable value options, taking the top pitcher on the board may be the smartest play for gamers. Keep in mind, with a game in Coors field, we will see many players opt to save money on their hurler and spend up on their bats which could leave Lester under owned.

Masahiro Tanaka ($9,800) – As you can tell, I am not overly enthused with the value options at pitcher on Tuesday night and I am more than willing to pay for the “safety” of the top end starting pitchers and differentiate my lineups utilizing some value bats. Tanaka gets a home start against the Royals who although they do not strike out often, are also one of the lowest scoring teams per game on the season. Meanwhile Tanaka has pitched exceptionally well to the tune of a 2.29 ERA, striking out 35 batters in 39 innings but is only averaging 34 points per game due to the fact he only has 1 win. The Yankees are favored at home and get to face the very hittable Kris Medlen putting the Yankees hurler in a great spot to pick up the win. Tanaka is averaging over 6 strikeouts per game over his last 5 starts and has gone at least 6 2/3 IP in his last 4 starts as he finally seems to be recapturing the elite upside he flashed prior to his injuries. Tanaka at under $10k has a great chance to be the top scoring pitcher on the night and sits at a price point that allows us to still have exposure to a high end lineup with an average salary of $3,150/player.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Hitters/Top Stacks

Red Sox Versus Sean Manaea – Right handed batters have greeted the Athletics top prospect quite rudely in the early going with a .321 average, 2 home runs and 7 ER over 6.2 IP. The Red Sox have one of the highest team totals on the board outside of Coors and I expect them to continue to hit the Athletics lefty hard on Tuesday night. Hanley Ramirez ($3,600) & Dustin Pedroia ($3,400) are two highly cost effective bats you can use as a mini-stack to get some Fenway exposure.

White Sox versus Derek Holland – The White Sox are another highly projected offense (over 5 runs) against left Derek Holland who gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings his last start out against Toronto. The right handed bats including Jose Abreu ($3,900) & Todd Frazier ($3,900) make for a high upside mini-stack with multi home run potential in this matchup.

Troy Tulowitzki($2,900) versus Matt Cain – The night’s BvP special – Tulo has tremendous career numbers against Cain with 21 hits in 64 at bats including 11 extra base hits and 5 home runs. At this sub 3k price point, Tulo makes for a great play if you are trying to fit in the high end pitchers and some bats from Colorado/Arizona.

Carlos Gonzalez ($3,900) versus Rubby De La Rosa – This price point for CarGo and exposure to Coors feels like a must play especially against a pitcher like De La Rosa. CarGo is 4 for 10 against the DBacks righty including 1 home run and the fact we can get a player in the heart of the Rockies order at a sub 4k price, makes this one of my key building block plays for any lineup.

Next: The economics of FanDuel: Second Basemen

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!