FanDuel Economics: Late MLB Picks May 11th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the Late MLB Picks May 11th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
The MLB schedule has a full slate of 15 games on Wednesday. Today, we see a split of games between early games starting after 1pm ET, and late games starting after 7pm. This article is specifically focused on the LATE only slate of games. However, one additional note, the Padres play the Cubs in the Early and Late slate of games due to their double header. So you’ll see each team’s players as options in both sets of times. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day:
- 1:05pm ET (Early Only)
- 1:05pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers (Late)
Value Pitchers (Late)
Drew Pomeranz (8:05pm ET) is once again a a great value option. I keep waiting for Pomeranz to falter or his price to sky-rocket, but neither has occurred yet and he’s worth continuing to pick until they do. In terms of FanDuel points, Drew has a 22 point floor and 62 point ceiling so far this year making him an exciting pick to play. Most of Pomeranz’s games have landed between 33 and 42 points. In fact, on the season, Drew is averaging 39.5 PPG. Pomeranz’s salary did climb to $7,200, but for roughly 40 points, that’s a very reasonable salary. Drew’s maintained a low 2.12 ERA, has 41 strikeouts over 34 innings, and is getting a win 50% of the his starts on a terrible Padres team. My only concern is he’s pitching against the Cubs in Chicago. The Cubs have been absolutely dominant this year and no team nor pitcher has really done a great job of figuring out how to master their lineup. But, Pomeranz is still a value option, 5.5X, too good to pass up and he hasn’t really let us done, yet, this season.
Another value option, who is beginning to feel like a broken record, is Rick Porcello (7:10pm ET). Like Pomeranz, Porcello has been rock solid all season so far. Unlike Drew, Rick is on a better team with a great lineup so his odds of winning each game are much higher. Porcello is 5-1 over six starts with a 2.95 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 39.2 innings. Rick is averaging 43.8 PPG, with four of his six games over 46 points. Porcello’s two worst games were 27 points against the Yankees and 39 points against Toronto. Each of his worst point games were pitching away. Tonight, Porcello is pitching against the Oakland A’s at home in Boston for the Red Sox. Rick’s salary is $8,400 which is very reasonable for a 44 point average and a fantastic 5.2X value.
Next: Value Hitters - INF (Late)
Value Hitters – INF (Late)
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.
Kevin Plawecki, C, (10:10pm ET) is an interested option tonight in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, assuming he’s behind the plate tonight. Plawecki has been getting at least 3-6 points consistently this season, but lately caught fire a little bit in the batter’s box. Kevin hit his first home run of the season on Monday, and prior to that game had 3 doubles over two games. If Plawecki can continue his hot streak tonight, he’s well worth the measly $2,500 you’re giving up for him and you will have plenty of cash for a big play somewhere else. Kevin’s 10.4 PPG average over the last week isn’t dominating, but a 4.2X value is an intriguing option tonight.
David Ortiz, 1B, (7:10pm ET) is a great counter play option to Anthony Rizzo. If you have been playing FanDuel MLB more than one game or follow baseball you likely know who David Ortiz is so I won’t go into too much detail about his stats. Rizzo is averaging 18.5 PPG, first among all first basemen. Rizzo’s salary, though, is a very expensive $4,800. David is averaging 18.4 PPG and has a salary of only $4,300. Still an expensive option, but getting and 18 point average with a 4.2X value isn’t common at the first base position. Also, Ortiz has been consistently hot this season.
Again, late last week, we did a deep-dive into the second base, 2B, position and many of the value options remain the same. Ben Zobrist (8:05pm ET), Daniel Murphy (7:05pm ET), and Dustin Pedroia (7:10pm ET) continue to be great value plays at the second base position.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B, (7:10pm ET) is an interesting pick for third base. Since coming off the disabled list, Pirates management have said they’d play Jung Ho only two out of every three games. The new three game cycle started on Monday and the game was postponed on Tuesday, so it’s pretty likely Kang plays on Wednesday. In Jung Ho’s first game back from the DL, he hit 2 home runs. He’s also had at least 1 RBI in all three games he’s started this season. Kang has power, and he could be a great value with only a $3,000 salary. Given his 13.5 PPG average since coming back and reasonable salary, Kang is a solid 4.5X value play tonight.
We talked about Marcus Semien, SS, (7:10pm ET) yesterday. Marcus followed up the discussion with 12.7 points, just above his weekly average of 11.5 PPG, at the time. His salary was a very solid $2,400. For some reason, Semien’s salary has decreased to $2,300 and Marcus still has a 11 PPG average. So Semien’s value is still 4.8X again tonight. After justifying his value last night, we may as well just roll with Marcus again tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - OF (Late)
Value Hitters – OF (Late)
We reviewed Adam Duvall (7:10pm ET) yesterday and the Pirates @ Cincinnati game was postponed due to weather so we won’t go into detail again today. But Duvall’s seven-day average is now 15.6 PPG and his salary actually dropped to $3,300 so his weekly value is now 4.7X.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (7:10pm ET) has hit safely on base in 16 straight games. Not only has Bradley been getting on base, he’s also hit 1 double and 3 home runs over his last 5 games. Even with the long hitting streak, Jackie can be streaky at times, he’ll get you a couple of 3 point games or usually follows up a great outing with a 3-6 point game. But, given Bradley is consistently getting on base, he’s a good pick regardless. Also, Jackie is averaging 15.3 PPG over the last seven days. With a $3,600 salary tonight, he’s giving you a solid 4.3X value, which may not seem like much but that’s a top 5 value option for outfielders in the late portion of the day.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
Next: FanDuel Trends At First Base In April
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.