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FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 12th

ByMatt Rogers|
May 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Trayce Thompson (21) gets a bucket of ice water from Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) after hitting a walk off home run in the ninth inning of the game against the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
May 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Trayce Thompson (21) gets a bucket of ice water from Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) after hitting a walk off home run in the ninth inning of the game against the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 13, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of the MLB logo and on deck circle and covered field during a rain delay in the game between the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers defeated the Twins 11-7. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 13, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of the MLB logo and on deck circle and covered field during a rain delay in the game between the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers defeated the Twins 11-7. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 12th

Welcome to FanDuel Economics!  This is the MLB Picks May 12th edition.  FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

After a full slate of games, and a split day, on Wednesday, fourteen teams take off on Thursday and we only have 8 games to pick from, so options are slimmer than we’re used to.  Every game on this Thursday starts in the evening, after 7:05pm ET.  Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day:

  • 7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder.  The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before.  However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers.  Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers

May 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (28) follows through on a pitch against the Cleveland Indians at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Indians, 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
May 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (28) follows through on a pitch against the Cleveland Indians at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Indians, 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Value Pitchers

I’ve talked about Vincent Velasquez (7:10pm ET) and Ian Kennedy (7:05pm ET) enough recently that I will not go into too much detail.  Velasquez had two mild 20 point games this season, including his last outing in Miami against the Marlins (21 points).  However, the young Philadelphia Phillies pitcher is still having an incredible year and is well worth the $9,100 salary tonight in Atlanta against the Braves.  Despite one rough 9 point outing against the L.A. Angels, Kennedy has been fairly consist landing between 34-53 points every day.  Ian is averaging 40 PPG and with a steady $8,000 salary his our top value option at 5X.

To provide more insight into the overall value of all the pitching options tonight, here’s a list of starting pitchers based on value only, which is average points on the season divided by each $1,000 of salary you would spend for the point average:

Player                                   YTD Value (Points/$1,000 Salary)

  1. Ian Kennedy                        5.0
  2. Vincent Velasquez            4.9
  3. Jimmy Nelson                     4.4
  4. Clayton Kershaw                4.1
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez                  4.1
  6. Johnny Cueto                      3.9
  7. Bartolo Colon                      3.9
  8. David Price                          3.6
  9. Nathan Eovaldi                   3.5
  10. James Shields                     3.5
  11. Jered Weaver                      3.4
  12. Dallas Keuchel                    3.0
  13. Aaron Blair                           2.9
  14. Zack Greinke                        2.4
  15. Mike Pelfrey                         2.3
  16. Adam Wainwright              2.2

Next: Value Hitters - INF

May 7, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) hits to center field for an out in the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
May 7, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) hits to center field for an out in the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Value Hitters – INF

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend.  This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid.  It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP.  At the start of this season the values were all over the place.  There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value.  Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season.  Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.

We talked about Brian McCann, C, (7:05pm ET) earlier in the season as he was getting hot. McCann then cooled off and became more expensive.  However, Brian seems to be reversing course in both regards.  McCann averaged 13.2 PPG over the last week and his salary has fallen to $3,100 providing a 4.3X value.  Brian’s salary is one of the best value options among possible catchers tonight.  McCann had double digit FanDuel point twice in each series against the Orioles and Royals.  Brian was quiet in a two game season against Boston, but still had a total of 12 points.  McCann should continue to roll on a cheap salary tonight in the series finale, in New York, against the Royals.

The 40 year old Boston Red Sox veteran David Ortiz, 1B, (7:10pm ET) is having a dominating year at the plate and has been absolutely on fire in May.  Over the last week David is averaging 21.5 PPG, 1st among all first basemen and 5 points higher than anyone else.  For some reason, Ortiz salary dropped from $4,300 to $3,600.  He took off on Tuesday, but he was back in the lineup Wednesday and appears to be in good shape.  Tonight in Boston, against Dallas Keuchel who’s struggling this year and gave up 2 hits in 3 at-bats to Ortiz lifetime, Ortiz looks to continue crushing the ball on a 6X value.

Jose Altuve, 2B, (7:10pm ET) is one of the dominating hitters in baseball today.  In 35 games played this season, Altuve has 44 hits, a .321 batting average, 12 doubles, 9 home runs, 22 RBI’s, and 32 runs.  Oh, he also has 18 walks and 13 stolen bases.  In short, Altuve does everything you could ask from a hitter.  Over the last week, Jose averaged 20.1 PPG.  Even with a pricey $4,600 salary that’s a 4.4X value.  Altuve is a great value option again tonight against a struggling David Price for the Boston Red Sox.

We talked about Aaron Hill, 3B, (8:10pm ET) recently after his monster 3 home run game in Cincinnati against the Reds.  Since that game, Hill had two quite 3 point games, but then piled on another 28.2 points in Miami against the Marlins, including 2 doubles, 1 run, and 2 RBI’s.  Assuming Hill gets the start again tonight, he’s a very appealing value option.  With a 17.1 PPG average over the last week and a very cheap $2,100 salary, Aaron has an astronomical 8.1X value. Keep an eye on the Brewers lineup tonight, if Hill’s in the lineup he’s certainly worth a pick.

Didi Gregorius, SS, (7:05pm ET) is a hit or miss play each day.  Gregorius doesn’t have good stats on the season, but over the past four games he piled up two 20+ FanDuel point games.  Over the last week, Didi is averaging 8.7 PPG, which is low, but with a rock-bottom cheap salary of $2,000 you’re getting a 4.3X value, one of the best values among any hitter this cheap.  He’s worth a consideration if you’re trying to fit multiple expensive options into your lineup tonight.

Next: Value Hitters - OF

May 10, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) hits a three run home run against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
May 10, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) hits a three run home run against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Value Hitters – OF

Lorenzo Cain (7:05pm ET) made headlines recently for the Kansas City Royals becoming the seventh Royals player to hit 3 home runs against the Yankees in one game.  Cain piled a massive 63.1 points in that game.  The outcome certainly had a huge impact on Lorenzo’s weekly average, this week.  Cain’s 16.1 PPG over the last seven days is 6th among all outfielders.  While it may seem like it’s due to one massive game, Lorenzo has been hot lately.  Cain has 15 hits over ten games in the month of May.  Lorenzo still has a cheap $3,200 salary, but if he stays hot he’s steal tonight with a 5X value.  Cain will try to slug a few more against Nathan Eovaldi in New York against the Yankees again.

Trayce Thompson (10:10pm ET) is an intriguing option for the outfield position.  Tracye, younger brother of Klay Thompson of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, is a reserve player for the Los Angeles Dodgers in his second year at the pro level.  However, Thompson has been earning more playing time with a hot bat.  On Tuesday, Tracye hit a pinch-hit game winning home run for the Dodgers over the Mets.  Over 10 days, Thompson has four starts and two pinch-hit games.  It’s possible Tracye could get a start again tonight against the Mets but you need to keep your eye on the Dodgers lineup because of the sitting risk here.  If starting, I love Thompson’s 12.5 PPG over the last seven days with a very low $2,200 salary giving us a fantastic 5.7X value.

Stephen Piscotty (10:05pm ET) continues to have a great season.  Piscotty is batting a .318 average with 5 home runs, 22 runs, 21 RBI’s, 10 doubles, 1 Triple, and 2 stolen bases.  Stephen is quietly becoming one of the better well-rounded hitters in baseball this season.  Like Lorenzo Cain, Piscotty is also averaging a very high 16.1 PPG.  Stephen had some big games too, but he’s been more consistent over the last week.  Piscotty’s salary is a reasonable $3,500 providing one of the better values tonight at 4.6X.  I like Stephen’s value in L.A. against the Angels tonight.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.