MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 12

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 12

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Follow us on Twitter @FantasyCPR and on Facebook to get up to the minute updates and analysis.

Thursday’s slate returns to a “normal” 7:05PM EST start with only one slate to play on FanDuel across 9 MLB games.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Vincent Velasquez ($9,100) – Clayton Kershaw is the clear top play on Thursday night with a home start against the Mets but the Amazin’s lineup is capable of putting up big numbers and for $3,400 of savings(or 10% of your salary cap)  you can drop down to Velasquez in one of the most favorable matchups on the board against Atlanta. Outside of the LA/NY game, the Braves have one of the lowest team totals on the board and have scored the fewest runs per game of any team in baseball. Velasquez is a solid road favorite and he has flashed elite strikeout numbers so far this season with 44 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched. It’s fair to remember that the majority of those strikeouts came in his first two starts where he struck out 25 batters in 17 innings and he has not struck out more than 6 batters in a start since then. If I am going to fade Kershaw on this slate, I want a pitcher in a favorable matchup (check), who is favored to win (check) and has elite strikeout upside (check). Velasquez is my top pitching option on this slate from a point per dollar perspective and is playable in both cash and tournament games.

Jimmy Nelson ($7,600) –  So let’s go back to my checklist for selecting a starting pitcher as the Brewers righty checks off the key boxes for me on Thursday night. First, Nelson gets a home start against the Padres who are one of the lowest scoring teams per game in all of baseball. Second, Nelson is a decent home favorite which puts him in position for the all-important FanDuel win. Third, he has solid strikeout upside as no team strikes out more on the road as the San Diego Padres, as they whiff a whopping 11 times per game. Nelson averages more fantasy points per start at home (39.75) than on the road (24.33) and also averages a very solid 6 strikeouts per game pitching in Milwaukee. Over the last 15 games, Nelson has put up 4.2x value which is just short of Clayton Kershaw’s 4.4x value, and makes for a great bargain option and pivot play for large field tournaments.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Top Hitters/Stacks

Baltimore Orioles against Mike Pelfrey – Big Pelf in Camden Yards? It is no wonder that the Orioles have the highest team total on the board and make for a great stack against a pitcher who has a 1.78 HR/9 so far this season. Pelfrey has a strikeout rate equal to his walk rate and has given up a .400+ average to left handed hitters on the year. Chris Davis ($4,100) & Mark Trumbo ($3,900) both homered on Wednesday and make for a fantastic home run stack against a volatile pitcher in their home park. Manny Machado ($4,300) has been averaging 15.7 points/game over the last 15 days and Adam Jones ($2,600) who is hitting 3.3x value over the same time period has started to heat up and they both make for great additions to an all Orioles stack in the best hitting matchup of the day.

Victor Martinez($3,000) against Ubaldo Jimenez – My BvP special for the day – Vmart is 9 for 29 off Jimenez with 4 home runs and makes for a great play at a very thi catcher position. Justin Upton ($2,700) and JD Martinez ($3,300) make for very cost effective high upside mini-stack to pair with Martinez.

Jonathan Villar ($2,900) against James Shields – From Wednesday to Thursday, Villar’s price dropped $500 for some odd reason. Villar is averaging 13.9 points per game over the previous 14 games which is good for 4.8x value At this price point and in a matchup where the Brewers are projected to score 4.6 runs, Villar is a must play for me and I will lock him in at SS in every single one of my lineups.

Next: FanDuel Trends At First Base In April

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!