FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 13th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Picks May 13th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
The MLB schedule is back to a full slate of 15 games on Friday. The day will start early, 2:20pm ET, with Francisco Liriano and the Pittsburgh Pirates face Jason Hammel in Chicago against the Cubs. However, the rest of the schedule begins after 7pm ET. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day:
- 2:20pm ET (All Day)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
We continue to visit veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright (7:10pm ET) and he continues to deliver and his value remains relatively impressive each week. At some point something has to give. Either Wright will disappoint or FanDuel will eventually elevate his salary to a very price level. Until then, I’m going to keep picking Steven for my lineups. Wright’s FanDuel points floor this season is 30 points. His ceiling is 57 points, achieved in his last outing on May 8th against the Yankees in New York. Steven is averaging 42.2 PPG on the season, which shows you how consistent he has been so far. Tonight, Wright’s salary is $8,800, providing an awesome 4.8X value, the best value option among all pitchers tonight. Steven’s salary has climbed $3,400 this season, so toward the beginning of the year you could’ve dropping him in your lineup for as cheap as $5,400, which was outstanding. Look for Wright to remain consistent tonight in Boston against the Houston Astros.
Unlike Wright, Rich Hill (7:10pm ET) has salary finally appearing to get pricey. However, he’s still a good value. Hill’s year has been more up and down compared to Steven Wright, but he’s still mostly performed quite well. Rich’s first start of the season against the Chicago White Sox was his worst game, landing at only 11 points. However, Hill has been quite good since that game. Over 7 starts, Rich has 40+ points in 4 of his games. Rich also reached 57 points in 3 of 4 straight games. So far this season Hill averaged 38.4 PPG and with a salary tonight of $8,700 he brings a 4.4X value to the mound. $8,700 may not seem as pricey as Wright’s $8,800, but Wright is consistently getting you a higher average so he’s a better value option. Still, Hill is a good option as the Oakland A’s take on the Rays in Tampa, FL tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.
The Texas Rangers acquired Bobby Wilson, C, (8:05pm ET) on May 3rd from the Tigers. The Rangers appear to be unhappy with their options at catcher and do seem intrigued by Wilson’s offense so far. On May 8th, Bobby hit a grand slam against the team who traded him, in Detroit, for the Rangers which likely earned him more playing time in the future. Bobby averaged 13.5 PPG over the last week, 5th among all catchers and the best average for catchers getting at least four starts in the last seven days. Wilson’s salary is a very cheap $2,100 giving us a bargain value of 6.4X. Assuming Bobby is behind the plate again tonight against the Blue Jays in Texas, he’s a very intriguing value option.
We talked about David Ortiz, 1B, (7:10pm ET) yesterday as a great value for the first base pick, but his salary climbed back to $4,300 which unfortunately makes plenty of sense. He’s still a great option regardless and you should continue to try to afford him. However, Freddie Freeman, 1B, (8:15pm ET) is getting very hot and while his salary is responding by climbing quickly, he’s still a great value option tonight. Freeman is averaging 17.9 PPG over the last week, 2nd (behind Ortiz), among all first basemen. Freeman’s salary is $3,600 giving us an ideal 5X value. Freeman looks to continue his hot streak in Kansas City tonight against the Royals.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, (7:05pm ET) has cooled of a little over the last three games, but he’s still the second best PPG average over the last week, at 18.4 PPG. The strong veteran hitter will likely find a way to continue to remain strong at the plate and with a still very cheap salary of $2,900, it’s hard to ignore Phillips and his amazing 6.4X value heading into Philadelphia tonight against the Phillies.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, (7:05pm) got really hot for a while and was a great value. Hi salary soon followed, but recently dipped again as he cooled off for a few games. However, Nick is back! Castellanos had two home runs in two games against the Nationals piling up over 50 points in total after those games. Nick is averaging 18.4 PPG over the last week, 3rd among all third basemen. His salary is a very reasonable $3,600 giving us another wonderful value at 5.1X as he faces the Orioles again tonight in Baltimore.
Addison Russell, SS, (2:20pm ET) along with the rest of the Chicago Cubs hitters is absolutely on fire lately. Russell hit 4 doubles and 1 triple over his last 5 games, including 8 RBI’s. Over the last seven games, Addison is averaging 18.4 PPG, easily the best among all shortstop hitters this past week. With a $3,600 salary and a 5.1X value facing Pittsburgh in Chicago this afternoon, I will continue to use Russell as my best value play at Shortstop.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
We highlighted Jackie Bradley Jr. (7:10pm ET) two days ago so I won’t go into too much detail, but he’s simply hard to ignore tonight. Over the last week, Bradley is averaging 24 PPG, 1st among all outfielders. That’s 5 points higher than Lorezno Cain who’s in 2nd, and Cain hit 3 HR’s the other night against the Yankees. With a salary of only $3,800 tonight at home against the Astros, Cain is bringing an outstanding 6.3X value to the plate.
Speaking of Lorenzo Cain (8:15pm), we highlighted Cain yesterday as well and Cain, with a 19.8 PPG average over a week’s time and cheap $3,300 salary, also has a fantastic 6X value.
A really good player who, until recently, had been quiet this season is Adam Jones (7:05pm ET). In two games in Minnesota, Jones smacked a home run in each game and piled up 5 RBI’s and 4 runs. Adam had 67 points over the two game series. Over the last week, Jones averaged 14.2 PPG. Jones has a bargain salary of only $2,600 tonight giving us a really good 5.5X value. I’m intrigued tonight by Adam’s value at home against the tigers.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.